Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cam AkersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Cam Akers’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-117).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to accrue 12.6 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to be a more integral piece of his offense’s running game this week (55.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.5% in games he has played).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Buffalo Bills defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.18 yards-per-carry.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
