Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Today is a great day.
DraftKings Week 1 NFL DFS salaries have been released, which means it’s time to start building our DFS lineups. This marks the official kickoff of the 2023 NFL DFS season.
Here are my reactions to the pricing and initial thoughts on my favorite Week 1 plays on the Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate.
DraftKings Week 1 NFL Salaries
Favorite Sunday Week 1 QB plays on DraftKings
Justin Herbert ($6,900)
I’ve been high on Justin Herbert throughout the offseason, and seeing his price below $7K is a gift from the DraftKings gods. The Chargers will host a Miami team that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game per our FTN Fantasy Points Allowed Tool.
This includes the second-most QB rushing yards per game (30.9) and sixth-most touchdowns per game (1.59). With a healthy offensive line, full cadre of weapons (including rookie WR Quentin Johnston), and new pass-friendly offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling the plays, I will have plenty of exposure to Herbert in a matchup that carries the highest point total (50) on the Sunday slate.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500)
While most will also look to Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa with the matchup against the Chargers, I’m pivoting to Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence as an even cheaper option.
Indianapolis’ defense allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season and produced the following stat lines against the Colts last season:
- 25/30, 235 yards, 2 TDs
- 20/22, 165 yards, 3 total TDs
In fact, Lawrence has yet to throw an interception in four career starts against the Colts and has posted two or more touchdowns in three of those four matchups. I like Lawrence to continue his hot finish to last season and post a solid Week 1 DFS line as the only the seventh-most expensive quarterback on the Sunday slate.
Russell Wilson ($5,900)
Looking for a cheap Week 1 quarterback option? Take a long look at Russell Wilson.
The Broncos will host a Raiders team in Week 1 that allowed the fourth-most passing yards (4,319) to opposing quarterbacks last season. Las Vegas also tied for the Giants for last place in interceptions, only registering six all season. The Raiders allowed the seventh-most points per game (24.6), and provided Wilson with his best fantasy game (in a pitiful season) outside of a meaningless Week 17 outing.
Wilson’s $5,900 DraftKings price ranks 11th among quarterbacks, only $100 more than the injured Kyler Murray. He projects for a safe floor with week-winning upside.
Sam Howell ($4900)
All credit on this one goes to our DFS legend, David Jones.
Sam Howell opens the season, at home, against an Arizona team that allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. Howell outrushed Josh Allen by 600 yards his last year in college and was projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, but chose to return to North Carolina. This game only carries a 40.5 overall point total, which should keep ownership low. Howell is a dual-threat quarterback with solid receiving weapons, facing a Cardinals team with the NFL’s lowest projected win total, and is the 27th highest-priced quarterback in Week 1?
Favorite Sunday Week 1 RB plays on DraftKings
Bijan Robinson ($8,000)
He’s going to be chalky, but explosive rookie Bijan Robinson is a fantastic Week 1 DFS play. Robinson is the fourth-highest-priced RB, but each player listed in his range comes with legitimate concerns. Christian McCaffrey is on the road against the Steelers run defense, Austin Ekeler against a tough Miami front, Nick Chubb brings uncertainty in passing game usage, and Jonathan Taylor is coming off injury.
Robinson resides in a run-heavy Atlanta offense, at home, against a Carolina run defense that allowed over 122 yards per game last season. Last season, the Panthers allowed Atlanta running back Caleb Huntley to average 5.7 yards per carry in a 37-34 OT home victory in Week 8. Huntley is no longer with Atlanta, and Robinson is an incredible talent. I love his Week 1 price and matchup.
Joe Mixon ($6,800)
Cleveland’s run defense was horrific last season, ranking 28th in rush DVOA, and allowing over 135 rushing yards per game. Using our FTN Splits Tool, it’s easy to see why Joe Mixon loves facing the Browns.
Mixon is only priced at $6,800, the 10th-most expensive Week 1 running back. Given his volume, goal line touches, and history against the Browns, Mixon is my favorite RB play that should come with reasonable rostership.
Favorite Sunday Week 1 WR plays on DraftKings
Quentin Johnston ($4,400)
Obviously we want to stack Chargers and Dolphins, but take a look at the cheapest Los Angeles wideout, rookie Quentin Johnston. The TCU rookie has already impressed in camp, and comes at a bottom-barrel Week 1 price tag. As the 50th-priced wideout on the Sunday slate, Johnston comes at a huge discount to teammates Keenan Allen ($7300) and Mike Williams ($5700). Athletic wide receiver, in a big-play offense, with a superb matchup? I will look to have plenty of exposure to Johnston at this price.
Chris Olave ($6,500)
Tennessee was great against the run last year, and lethally poor against the pass. The Titans allowed 274.8 passing yards to their opponents last season, worst in the league by far. In Week 1, they travel to New Orleans to face a revamped Saints attack led by new quarterback Derek Carr. Second-year wideout Chris Olave’s price hovers around that $6500 sweet spot, providing production at a reasonable cost. The presence of Michael Thomas keeps Olave’s price down, despite his explosive 43.9 speed.
Chris Godwin ($5,900)
A sub $6K Chris Godwin seems criminal against a Vikings defense that allowed the second-most PPR fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers per FTN Data. Tampa Bay also passed the ball 67.9% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL in 2022. While I expect that number to drop without legend Tom Brady under center, this is still a strong matchup for Godwin, who averaged 10.7 targets per game from Weeks 4 to 16. It’s a great game envirnoment for both Mike Evans and Godwin, but I’ll gladly take the $400 discount on the more targeted Tampa wideout.
Favorite Sunday Week 1 TE play on DraftKings
Tyler Higbee ($4,800)
Death, taxes, and playing tight ends in DFS against Seattle. Per our FTN Points Against Tool, tight ends eviscerated the Seahawks for over 16 PPR fantasy points per game in 2022.
Tyler Higbee is still entrenched as the Rams TE1, and should have a healthy Matthew Stafford under center for Week 1. Last year against Seattle, Higbee caught passes from John Wolford and Baker Mayfield. His $4,800 price is extremely attractive on a Sunday slate without Travis Kelce.
