TwoGun’s core NFL DFS picks for Week 5

As we head into the Week 5 NFL DFS main slate, I haven’t seen so many important truly questionable tags on running backs in a very long time. Don’t get married to your lineups this week, since you might be editing them last minute due to injury updates. It makes having a “core” a bit tricky for running back since that can change at a moment’s notice.

I’ll go over what topics I’m thinking about and which ways I plan on pivoting my lineups from the public this week. My lineups Saturday afternoon may look very different than the final ones at lock, especially at running back, given the news that may hit over the next 24 hours. I’ll have my GPP percentages for my top guys on the cheat sheets up Saturday night and hopefully edited Sunday morning, but the final lineups may definitely end up being very different especially for running back due to any last minute news.

In other words, take my cheat sheet percentages with a grain of salt this week.

Three Key Questionable Tags

The three most important questionable tags to me that are truly questionable are Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Chase Edmonds. We’ll know if the first two are active before the slate starts, but we may not know if Edmonds is active or not until midway through the first set of games.

If Cook is out, Alexander Mattison is chalk and very good chalk. If Mixon is out, Samaje Perine is the cheapest injury replacement and likely good value. How much he’ll be owned depends on if Cook is out as well. Finally, Edmonds’ status may or may not be known before the slate locks. If he is unknown and Cook is out, then having lineup flexibility to pivot to James Conner actually becomes both a great value and contrarian play since most people just won’t mess with it due to all of the other running back value.

Again, it all depends on factors after this article is posted. I like Mattison, but so would everyone. I’ll have him, maybe a bit more or less than the public. Chris Evans is supposed to limit Perine’s touches. This media negativity makes me like a bit Perine more, but it does mean he likely does not have much of a receptions floor. I’ll likely end up with more Perine than the public, especially if Cook is out. 

Finally, I’ll leave room and flexibility in my lineups for a James Conner pivot. I’ll end up with more Conner if Cook is inactive just to get some leverage/low ownership there since everyone just won’t bother to mess with it.

So while I like Mattison from a pure point-per-dollar perspective, I may end up with the smallest share of him versus the public of the three because it is the most obvious and easiest choice. If Cook is inactive but Mixon is active and Edmonds is expected to play, then sure I’ll likely match the public on Mattison. The key here is that I’m willing to sacrifice Mattison shares for some lesser owned Perine or Conner shares if those opportunities arise.

Mid-Tier Running Backs

Even without these potential injury replacements, there are a lot of chalky mid-tier running backs this week. Leonard Fournette appears to be the go-to for value, though Giovani Bernard likely coming back this week will limit Fournette’s third-down touches. I’ll have a little Fournette, but likely less than the public. There are other good value running backs like James Robinson, D’Andre Swift and Najee Harris. They’ll get more ownership if Cook, Mixon, Edmonds, etc., play and less if they don’t. 

There isn’t really a mid-tier running back I like more or less than everyone else. I’ll likely end up being somewhat light on all of these guys due to focusing on either the injury replacement guys or just having more wide receiver in the flex (and having fewer running back shares). Outside of my strategy regarding those three injury replacements, I’ll be taking my shots against the public in other ways.

Let’s Talk Wide Receivers

Going contrarian against the public at wide receiver is generally the easiest way to build a contrarian lineup, and this weekend is no different. There will be a mix of chalky 10-30% type wide receivers this week. You have Jakobi Meyers (who I kind of like but will have less than the public), the Dallas and Tampa wide receivers, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams and maybe DJ Moore. I think most people will opt for running back in the flex, so wide receivers in general will get less ownership. I think this will create a lot of low owned opportunities.

Here are a few contrarian wide receivers (and one tight end) and stacks I like:

Odell Beckham, Cleveland Browns

He ended up being pretty chalky last week but busted since the Browns-Vikings game was so low scoring. Nevertheless, he’s the clear No. 1 wide receiver on the Browns and had about an 80% snap share last week. It’s just a matter of time until he gets that 20-point (or better) game. I think everyone has already given up on him. The Browns-Chargers game has a decent total and could even be a shootout. I like Odell Beckham a lot this week. Also a small plus: he plays in a later game for lineup flexibility in case Edmonds comes down to a GTD. OBJ is $100 more than Conner on FanDuel, making a great spot to put him in the flex there.

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

I’ll spare you the writeup at this point, but needless to say I’m going down with the ship here. At almost certainly sub-5% and likely sub-3% rostered, I’ll gladly take some L’s since it would be the easiest setup for my fourth Milly if DeAndre Hopkins can pull a “Tyreek Hill from Week 4″-type performance versus the field.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

I don’t think picking the top wide receiver in a team with a high team total is exactly rocket science. However, I think the public is so focused on other receivers or the Vikings run game that they won’t be too heavy on Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. I wouldn’t exactly say I plan on having Jefferson in my core, but I do want outsized exposure to him and the Vikings passing game this week.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

With David Montgomery out, most people just are thinking about whether to use Damien Williams. However, this may be the game that Justin Fields finally puts up a pretty decent fantasy line. They may be playing catchup and may need to throw the ball. Robinson’s salary has dropped considerably into value territory. He’ll be low owned and is pretty cheap, both of which I like. I’ll have him in a good number of lineups. Another plus is Allen Robinson being in a late game and about $100 less on DraftKings than Conner in case of late switches.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

With Julio Jones out and against a … let’s just say “not great” Jacksonville team, A.J. Brown seems set up for a great game. I think everyone is so set on “Derrick Henry or bust” with the Titans they forgot that Ryan Tannehill can in fact light it up. Relying solely on Henry got the Titans an L against the freaking Jets, so I’m pretty sure they’re going to want to get Brown involved in the game. I like Brown as WR filler as well as Tannehill stacks with Brown or double stacked with Reynolds.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

At wide receiver, it’s pretty much been the Deebo Samuel show this year for the 49ers. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t done much since coming back from injury. However, that may change this week with George Kittle likely out. It’s not like Ross Dwelley will exactly soak up those targets, so there should be some more opportunities for a guy like Aiyuk. His salary is really low, and he likely won’t get a lot of ownership. He makes for great salary relief at wide receiver or as a bringback in an already low-owned Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins stack.

Kadarius Toney, New York Giants

While John Ross stole the show last week, Kadarius Toney seems to be the primary beneficiary snapwise from the Sterling Shepard/Darius Slayton injuries. At just $4k on DraftKings, he can really help as salary relief. I think he’s an interesting play on SuperDraft at a 1.95x multiplier, since that would produce a really high score if he somehow puts up a 20-raw-point game unadjusted for the multiple.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team

Out of all of the injury replacements this week, I think Ricky Seals-Jones is being ignored too much as great value. Logan Thomas was a 100% snap kind of guy, and it appears Seals-Jones will now take that place. I doubt Washington changes their play calling too much, so I’m sure Seals-Jones will have plenty of routes and opportunities to make plays. He was a wide receiver in college, so he certainly has good hands. At minimum price across sites. I think he’s a great value, and he may not be THAT chalky. I think this is a much better setup than Will Dissly Thursday, since it’s not like Gerald Everett was targeted that much anyways when he played.

Expensive RB, Cheap WR Builds

Between the potential injury replacements and the chalk running backs already being mid-tier guys, I think most people will opt for using mid-tier players throughout their lineup. There will be a lot of usage of $5k-$7k guys on DraftKings and $6k-$7500 or so on FanDuel. People may go cheap at tight end with Evan Engram or maybe Seals-Jones for salary relief.

I think a contrarian approach is foregoing the chalk mid-tier running backs in favor of an expensive running back, cheap wide receiver build. For example, you have Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara (I’ll likely overown Kamara versus the public) on a roster and put guys like Toney, Robinson or Aiyuk as salary relief. You could also use the chalk Jakobi Meyers here since your lineup is pretty contrarian otherwise already. Basically, you go stars and scrubs in a very “mid-tier chalk” type week.

I’ll have a few of these types of lineups. I like it a lot more if it turns out Cook, Mixon and Edmonds are all playing since their injury replacements just represent a lot better value to me than the standard mid-tier chalk like Fournette and James Robinson. If there ends up being a lot of injury replacement value, you can still have this type of lineup with maybe one of the running backs in the flex.