Trey Lance leads NFL bets for today


Every day, sportsbooks are releasing more and more lines and news continues to break. In just the last two weeks, Cam Akers has been declared out for the year, Michael Thomas has a serious ankle injury, Aaron Rodgers is back, Carson Wentz is hurt, and as I write this, we’ve found out DeVonta Smith is week to week.

Reacting quickly to news — or even better beating the news — can create fantastic betting opportunities. Even with no news with more books releasing more and more lines being released everyday, hitting the lines hard early can create massive CLV and positive expected value.

Here are three bets that I think the time to act on is now as they offer serious value.

NFL player props to bet

A look at some of my favorite NFL player props to bet as NFL training camp continues.

Jonathan Taylor is overpriced

Under 1,275.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Carson Wentz is having surgery on his foot and will be out 5-12 weeks. While Wentz is far from a top-tier quarterback, starting Jacob Eason is still likely a significant downgrade to the offense for however long he will need to go. Jonathan Taylor is an amazing runner and the Colts have a good offensive line, but there are far too many question marks to justify this number. Gamescript issues, timeshare with both Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines getting playing time, and any injury would set this number as unattainable. FanDuel is hanging this number 100 yards higher than DraftKings had it prior to them taking it down due to the Wentz news. There will likely be a nice middle opportunity shortly or you can hold a strong ticket. Yes, there are 17 games, but only two running backs went over this number last year in Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook, while only four went over it the previous year. 

Trey Lance making early impressions

Week 1 starter (+333, FOX Bet)

Reports out of 49ers camp are that Trey Lance has made strong early impressions as both players and coaches are talking about how difficult his legs make it for him to defend. While the presumption is that Jimmy Garoppolo will be the Week 1 starter, other books have already started to adjust Lance’s line, with DraftKings dropping it to +225 Monday morning. Meanwhile, FOX Bet has been slower to react, hanging +333 out there. One major advantage is that he is a mobile quarterback in the preseason. Defensive schemes are extremely vanilla in the preseason, with lack of gameplanning. Historically speaking, this has allowed young mobile quarterbacks to come in and dominate, as defenses are unprepared for their dual-threat ability. With good preseason performances it will be nearly impossible to sit Lance for the opener. At +333 odds, I am willing to make that bet he will come out of the gates hot and earn the job.

Bet the Packers to be playoff bound

Packers to make playoffs (-230, William Hill)

Aaron Rodgers has made the playoffs in 10 of his last 11 healthy seasons. That is 91% of the time. With the odds at -230, we are looking at a line representing 69% probability. This number is as high as -360 in other places, a 78% implied probability. At just -230, this line does not reflect the accurate probability of the Packers making the playoffs. At 26-6 in the regular season under Matt LaFluer, the Packers play in one of the league’s worst divisions with the Lions a bottom-three NFL team and both the Vikings and Bears lacking high-end QB play. (Yes, Justin Fields may change that but we aren’t there yet). In addition to the poor division, they are in the weaker conference as well. The Packers have a higher win total than all but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC, tied with the Rams and 49ers. Coming off a year where they lead the league in points scored, with the reigning MVP, a great offensive line and a solid defense, this number is too low. 

(Get all my NFL betting picks here)

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