Darrell Henderson leads 3 must-bet NFL player props

As the calendar moves forward and we get closer to football season, sportsbooks continue to release more and more player props, as both DraftKings and BetMGM added a ton of markets this week.

With new markets come new edges to exploit. If you look at my current futures portfolio in the FTN Bet Tracker, you will see a ton of closing line value, consistently getting the best number. While we can’t cash out CLV, it can give us confident our process is sound.

Here are a few more bets I anticipate being on the right side of for the 2021 NFL season.

Darrell Henderson has too much hype

Under 925.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

My colleagues Matthew Freedman and Kyle Murray were quicker on the trigger than I was, grabbing Darrell Henderson’s prop of over 500.5 rushing yards on BetMGM before it was taken down in the aftermath of the Cam Akers injury. Only DraftKings has re-released his line, and it has increased to 925.5 yards since the news Akers would miss this season. Akers’ total was set at just 1,025.5 rushing yards, so this line is projecting similar production. I think this is a massive overreaction and an inflated line as people over-adjust to news. Henderson is a career committee back who has a history of ankle sprains and hamstring issues. Henderson is not even currently healthy and has been battling injuries all offseason. Reports out of camp are that the Rams aren’t making a move for a veteran running back right now (though they could) because of how much they like second-year back Xavier Jones — in other words, that it is Jones who may replace the early-down Cam Akers work. This line is based on the assumption Henderson should see 70% of the carries — a number that is way too high. Take advantage of the overreaction and short Darrell Henderson.

Keenan Allen will find the end zone often in 2021

Over 6.5 touchdowns (+100, BetMGM)

As Kyle Murray explains in the above video, this number is simply too short. Both Kyle and Jeff Ratcliffe’s NFL projections have Keenan Allen sailing over this number, with Jeff projecting him for 8 touchdowns and Kyle at 9.8. Not only do the projections say this number is too short, but we get plus money on the over as well. Coming off an 8-touchdown season, Allen is the twinkle in Justin Herbert’s eye. He saw 11 end-zone targets and 29 red-zone targets last season, both top 20 in the NFL. Allen is an alpha receiver locked into a massive workload. Last year, he saw the eighth-highest target share in the NFL and saw double-digit targets in 10 of the 13 games he didn’t leave to injury.

Michael Carter is a rookie to watch

Over 575.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

This line is low due to the uncertainty of Michael Carter’s role in the offense. But he is the most talented back on the team, averaging over eight yards per carry last year in college, and the Jets invested the most draft capital or financial capital in him of any running back. The Jets are set to have one of the most improved run games in football. Not only did they draft the best guard in the class in Alijah Vera-Tucker, but they also added a bulldozer in Morgan Moses to play right tackle. The Jets are set to have one of the most physically imposing offensive lines in football and will be coordinated by Mike LaFleur, a disciple of Kyle Shannahan, who is known for his run-scheme success. Carter is projected to go over this total by both Jeff and Kyle in their projections and this line is about 100 yards short, giving it enough value to be worth a play on the over.