Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for a good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. They become a black hole of sorts if they score enough fantasy points and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate-breaker, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 18.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The Bills have to win to clinch the AFC East and earn at least one home game in the playoffs, so there’s no fear of Josh Allen sitting against the lowly Jets, a team he has absolutely owned throughout his career. Per our Splits tool, Allen has averaged 328 passing yards per game against the Jets dating back to last year (267 in non-Jets game) and 40 rushing yards per game. The Jets have the 27th-ranked pass defense and have allowed the second-most yards per attempt against (8.18). Their adjusted completion rate allowed of 77% is also the fifth-worst. Allen, the top fantasy QB of 2021, will feast.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts need to win to make the playoffs (or have the Chargers lose, among other things). Bottom line is, they control their own destiny. And they should be able to make it happen as – checks notes – 15.5-point favorites against the Jaguars. That huge spread suggests this should be a very Jonathan Taylor-friendly game script. Per our Splits app, in games where the Colts have been favored by at least a touchdown this season, Taylor has averaged 5.5 more fantasy points per game with an additional two touches per game. He has averaged 137 rushing yards and 1.6 rushing TDs per game when favored big, compared to 95 and 0.91 in other contests.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are in win-and-in mode. They have to beat the Rams (or the Saints need to lose to the Falcons) to win a trip to the playoffs, and it’s hard to see them not heavily utilizing Samuel to make it happen. Jimmy Garoppolo might be back for Week 18, but even if he’s not, Deebo Samuel still managed to find the end zone and average 21 yards per reception with Trey Lance under center. Samuel was open for another long score, but Lance didn’t see him. When the Rams and 49ers last met, Samuel topped 30 PPR points and didn’t even have that wild of a game (5-97-1 receiving, 5-36-1 rushing). There’s a high ceiling for Samuel this week. Lance’s growing struggles may be the only holdback.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp needs 12 receptions and 135 yards to break both the receptions record (currently 149 – Kupp has 138) and yardage record (1,964 – Kupp has 1,829). Kupp has only tallied more than 12 receptions in one game this year, but he does have 5 games with at least 10 receptions in his last 10 contests. He’s also only topped 135 yards three times, but he’s gone over the century mark 10 times. All of this is to say that it won’t take that much more than we’re used to seeing from Kupp to break those records. And with the Rams still jostling for playoff positioning, we’re likely to see him play all 60 minutes against a division rival (the 49ers) that he toasted for 11 receptions and 122 yards back in Week 10.
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is also playing into a narrative a bit. Rob Gronkowski could earn the following in Week 18:
- 7 catches earns him $500,000
- 85 yards would earn him $500,000
- 3 TDs would earn him $500,000
That is not an unreasonable Gronk line. The Panthers have been among the better teams at defending tight ends, but Gronkowski remains elite, and now he’s seeing truly elite volume, too. Since the apocalypse hit Tampa’s offensive skill players three weeks ago, Gronkowski has seen over 10 targets in two games. He didn’t reach that mark once from Weeks 1-14. And now Antonio Brown is also out of the equation. So the stars are lining up, and you know Tom Brady will want to earn his best friend on the team some extra money.
