Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 11.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Everything about this game screams Dak Prescott eruption spot. For starters, the Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to enemy QBs on the year, and that’s despite facing a list of QBs that includes Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke, 2021’s version of Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones and Jordan Love in half of their games. The over/under in this game is so high (56), and the spread so tight (KC -2.5) that a back-and-forth shootout is the most likely gamescript. And, while I realize this is a small sample (two games), it has to be shown — Prescott has annihilated the stat sheet when playing in a game with a total this high:
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey just dropped 26.1 DraftKings points — without scoring a TD and without reaching the 100-yard bonus. He also didn’t play much of the fourth quarter with the game well in hand. I think it’s safe to say his 50-point upside is intact. Washington shocked everyone with a win against the Bucs last week, but the Panthers are still 3.5-point favorites, setting McCaffrey up to be involved rushing and passing all game. Looking at our FTN splits tool, CMC’s stats are up across the board (or virtually even) when playing in games with a tight spread.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams is coming off a mediocre performance by his standards, and it has been over a month on the real calendar since he truly popped (11 catches for 206 yards and 1 TD back in Week 5). Adams, last year’s TD leader (18), has only 3 through nine games this year — but his stats in every other department are strong.
He leads the league in target share (34.3%), third in targets (98), yards (864) and Air Yards (1,079), and fifth in fantasy points (169.4). The only thing missing is the TDs — and even those should be there, according to the data. Adams is fourth in red zone targets (25), but he inexplicably only has 2 end-zone targets. By comparison, every other player with at least 20 red-zone targets has at least 4 end-zone targets.
This is a long way of saying that there’s just no logical reason for Adams to stay end zone starved much longer. And with Adams sporting the best individual WR/CB matchup of the week, his odds are improved in Week 11.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
There are few WRs who can take a short slant or screen to the house on any play. Deebo Samuel is one of them.
There seems to be this weird reluctance to accept Samuel’s breakout, but it’s real. Whatever WR stat you name, he will be at or near the top. Targets (eighth), yards (second), YAC (first). TDs (t-11th), fantasy points (third).
And Samuel could absolutely blow up this week against the Jaguars corner trio of Rudy Ford (76% catch rate). Tyson Campbell (67% catch rate) and Shaquill Griffin (69%). Samuel has the second-best individual WR-CB matchup of Week 11. Jacksonville is a bottom-10 defense in yards and fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
This Cowboys/Chiefs game has shootout written all over it. We already gushed about the game environment above (in the Dak section), so we won’t repeat it here, but it is worth noting that Kelce will be Dallas’ biggest test at TE since Week 1, when Rob Gronkowski wrecked them for 8-90-2.
None of the other TE names Dallas have faced are inspiring, with Dallas Goedert (2-66-0) serving as the clear best. Despite the weak TE schedule, Dallas still ranks in the bottom half of the league in points allowed to the position.
And while this doesn’t come as a surprise, it’s interesting to see that Kelce’s target share has been remarkably consistent this year, landing between 20% and 27% in all but one game. Predictable volume in a likely shootout is a recipe for success for a TE that leads the position in every major category except for TDs (where he ranks second). Throw in the fact that Patrick Mahomes finally clicked last week and threw for 400-plus and 5 TDs, and we have a Kelce blowup spot.
