NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/17)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have 11 games on tap on Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 17 | NBA DFS First Look

Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -2.5, total: 215.0
Pace: WAS (19th), CHA (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• P.J. Washington is listed as out for the Hornets while Gordon Hayward is listed as probable.
• Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant remain out for the Wizards.

Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons

IND -6.5, total: 211.0
Pace: IND (25th), DET (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Chris Duarte is questionable for the Pacers.
• Kelly Olynyk remains out for the Pistons.

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -4.5, total: 214.0
Pace: BOS (23rd), ATL (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaylen Brown remains out for the Celtics while Robert Williams is listed as questionable.
• De’Andre Hunter has been ruled out for the Hawks while Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are questionable.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -10.5, total: 207.0
Pace: CLE (26th), BKN (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and Lauri Markkanen have all been ruled out for the Cavs.
• Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris remain out for the Nets.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat

MIA -8.5, total: 220.5
Pace: NOP (20th), MIA (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both questionable for the Heat. Dewayne Dedmon is also listed as questionable.

Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks

NYK -11.5, total: 209.0
Pace: ORL (17th), NYK (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Suggs is listed as questionable for the Magic.
• Nerlens Noel has been listed as out for the Knicks.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -7.5, total: 213.0
Pace: LAL (2nd), MIL (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James remains out, while Anthony Davis is listed as probable for the Lakers.
• Khris Middleton and George Hill are probable for the Bucks, while Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez remain out.

Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -2, total: 223.5
Pace: SAC (8th), MIN (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• none

Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC -3.5, total: 212.0
Pace: HOU (1st), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kevin Porter is questionable for the Rockets.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

PHO -8, total: 215.5
Pace: DAL (22nd), PHO (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic has been ruled out for the Mavericks and Maxi Kleber remains out.
• Frank Kaminsky is listed as questionable for the Suns.

Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -2, total: 220.0
Pace: CHI (14th), POR (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard and Norman Powell are listed as questionable for the Blazers.
• Nikola Vucevic has been ruled out for the Bulls. Alex Caruso is listed as probable.

Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.

In six games without Luka Doncic last season, Jalen Brunson averaged 42.3% more DraftKings points and 42.5% more FanDuel points per game.

Assuming the lead ball-handler duties, Brunson saw his minutes vault from 24.15 per game to 35.42 per game and posted over 30 FanDuel and DraftKings points per contest. His 22.8% usage rate isn’t astronomically high without Luka on the court, but he averaged nearly 20 points per game (19.17) while adding 8.5 combined rebounds plus assists. His price has risen a bit, but he still makes for an elite mid-tier target given the circumstances.

Kevin Love is averaging 17.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per 36 minutes this season.

Love has only appeared in seven games and has come off the bench in all seven, but that figures to change Wednesday. With Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen and Evan Mobley all out, Love should slide into the starting lineup, and assuming his conditioning is back (it appears so based on the injury report), he could see 30-plus minutes in this game.

His production is not what it once was in his prime, but getting 17.1/12.7/4.0 out of a $5,300-player on DraftKings would be something you’re happy with ten out of ten times.

In his two games since returning from injury, Talen Horton-Tucker has posted a 25.2% usage rate and a 61.6% true-shooting percentage.

Horton-Tucker has been productive in his first two games back, posting better efficiency metrics than Russell Westbrook and trailing only him and Anthony Davis on the team in usage rate. He saw 37 minutes on the second leg of a back-to-back, boding well for his stock and his conditioning after missing so much time. Assuming he sticks in the starting lineup on Thursday, he makes for a no-brainer value play against the Bucks at only $4,800 on DraftKings.

The Thunder rank in the bottom seven of the league against rebounders (24th), crafty finishers (26th), skilled centers (27th), and 3-and-D players (29th), per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP.

All these archetypes are ones Christian Wood has, with his fifth being stretch big, something the Thunder rank 19th against. Long story short, the Thunder struggle to defend players like Wood. Blowouts continue to cap his ceiling with the Rockets, but with a 3.5-point spread against with a reduced DraftKings price ($7,700) after consecutive blowouts, Thursday feels like a get-right spot for Wood.

In 211.4 minutes with Robert Williams off the court this season, Al Horford has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute.

That number jumps from an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with Williams on the court, as Horford’s all-around game seems to benefit when he’s the only big man on the court. With Williams questionable heading into Thursday, we could see this be the case for the majority of the game against the Hawks, making Horford a player to monitor with news as the day goes on. His $7,500 DraftKings price may seem lofty, but it becomes extremely viable if Williams is ruled out in addition to Jaylen Brown already being out.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500)
2. Kevin Durant ($11,500)
3. James Harden ($11,300)
4. Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
5. Anthony Davis ($10,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
2. Anthony Davis ($10,600)
3. Kevin Durant ($10,400)
4. James Harden ($10,200)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x score multiplier)
2. Kevin Durant (1x)
3. Anthony Davis (1x)
4. James Harden (1.05x)
5. Russell Westbrook (1.05x)

With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the Tuesday slate went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Tuesday night.

PG: Stephen Curry (62.75)
SG: Patty Mills (19.50)
SF: Bruce Brown (31.25)
PF: Draymond Green (31.50)
C: Rudy Gobert (47.25)
G: Reggie Jackson (39.50)
F: Bojan Bogdanovic (39.50)
UTIL: Eric Bledsoe (23.00)

Total: 294.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Tuesday night.

PG: Stephen Curry (59.9)
PG: Dejounte Murray (58.9)
SG: Joe Ingles (19.1)
SG: Reggie Jackson (37.2)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic (36.2)
SF: DeAndre’ Bembry (25.5) 
PF: Royce O’Neale (19.3)
PF: Draymond Green (30.2)
C: Rudy Gobert (48.9)

Total: 335.2

Tuesday’s three-game slate will go down as maybe the ugliest slate of the season. Blowouts severely capped the ceilings of most of the spend-ups, as you’ll notice that Kevin Durant, Paul George and James Harden (the three most popular spend-ups) are absent from the winning lineups.

Donovan Mitchell and Tobias Harris were two other popular mid-tier targets who were buried by a blowout, both failing to reach 30 fantasy points. It was Curry who was the difference-maker for those that pivoted off of the chalk spend-ups and pairing him with Dejounte Murray on FanDuel made for a winning strategy as they were, by far, the top two scoring players on the slate.