Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
FTN content overlord Josh Collacchi has assigned me a piece titled, “Top 3 DraftKings Sportsbooks Betting Picks for Week 1.”
SEO much? Anyways…
Across the market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings relative to the rest of the market.
For all my Week 1 bets, check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription until Monday Night Football kicks off.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints Week 1 Odds
- Bet: Packers -3.5
- Odds: -105
This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, and I refuse to believe that the Packers are only 3.5 points better than the Saints on a neutral field.
The Packers are coming off back-to-back 13-3 seasons. They have MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers, All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams and a top-six cornerback unit.
The Saints, meanwhile, have inconsistent quarterback Jameis Winston and are without No. 1 wide receiver Michael Thomas.
This line is -110 odds at most sportsbooks.
Pick: Packers -3.5 (-105)
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Odds
- Bet: Eagles Moneyline
- Odds: +165
The Falcons have quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts and that’s basically it.
The Eagles have upside quarterback Jalen Hurts, rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert — plus a much better offensive line and a strong defensive line with edge rushers Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat, and defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.
The Falcons are at home, so they should probably be favored, but even so I have this game much closer to a coin flip, so getting significant plus odds on the Eagles is a good value.
This line is +145 to +155 at most sportsbooks.
Pick: Eagles (+165)
Denver Broncos at New York Giants Week 1 Odds
- Bet: Under 42
- Odds: -110
This is one of my plays in our FREE $20,000 sports betting contest at DraftKings.
Despite the inflated scoring we saw last year, the Giants had an impressive under record of 12-3-1 in 2020. I guess that’s what you get when you mix the hard-nosed defense-driven pragmatism of head coach Joe Judge with the slow-paced incompetence of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and quarterback Daniel Jones.
As for the Broncos, they should be better on defense with the return of edge rusher Von Miller, and on the other side of the ball they could underwhelm with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater game-managing the offense.
This line is 41.5 at most sportsbooks.
Pick: Under 42 (-110)
