Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There are plenty of unknowns surrounding the Week4 Thursday night game, with Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa still questionable. The Dolphins got the win against the Bills in Week 3 to remain undefeated, but coming in with multiple injuries on a short week is a tough task for anyone. Additionally the Bengals faced the Jets last week, meaning they probably had some additional time to plan ahead for the Dolphins, while the Dolphins had a divisional matchup against the Bills.
Here is my favorite prop bet for Thursday’s game.
Tee Higgins Longest Reception o22.5 Yards
-114, Barstool Sportsbook
These teams have similar situations — both have a pair high-powered receivers where either one could have a huge ceiling game. The reason I like the longest reception prop in this situation is because Ja’Marr Chase could go 6-100-1 and Tee Higgins could very easily record one down-the-field catch. While the public perception is that Chase is the downfield receiver due to his explosion games last season, Higgins currently possesses the higher aDOT, 11.7 yards compared to Chase’s 8.66). Chase should draw coverage from former Pro Bowler Xavien Howard, while Higgins likely will see Nik Needham.
Additionally, the Dolphins have not been good at limiting explosive plays thus far, ranking 27th. So far this season, they’ve allowed eight receivers to haul in a catch of at least 25 yards over the course of three games. When Chase and Higgins have played together, they have seen very similar receptions, targets and air yards. I like Higgins’ downfield usage, and I’ll trust one of the better contested catch receivers in the NFL to get the job done here. I’m a bit worried about the Dolphins blitzes getting to Burrow, but we only need one downfield catch to get the job done here.
