Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Chase Edmonds from EV Insight

Chase EdmondsRushing Yards

Right now, Chase Edmonds’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Chase Edmonds has been given 41.8% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 31.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Chase Edmonds’s running effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 3.34 yards-per-carry vs a 5.32 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards