Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-105) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.3% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
