Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-105) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.3% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards