Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This week’s Falcons vs. Panthers matchup is one of the more underwhelming primetime games of the season. Normally, I’m of the opinion that I’d rather watch two bad teams duke it out than watch one good team destroy a bad team, but this game might test our patience a bit. These two teams just faced off a couple weeks ago, giving us a 37-34 high-flying affair that ended up going into overtime.
Both squads are in one of the weakest divisions in football, so technically the Falcons are still in the playoff hunt. The Panthers, sitting at 2-7, are likely deciding whether they like CJ Stroud or Bryce Young more, but they have still showed some fight.
Here’s my best bet for this Thursday’s game.
Cordarrelle Patterson 2+ Touchdowns
+750 FanDuel Sportsbook
One of the biggest things I’m worried about in this game is the weather. With a very rainy forecast, and reports of wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph, this game could get ugly fast. While rain affects both the offense and defense fairly equally, wind severely hampers the quarterback’s ability to get the ball to the receivers, which definitely hampers offense. Because of these weather situations, I would expect an even more run-focused attack for both teams. It’s already hard to tackle Cordarrelle Patterson in the open field, now try when it’s soaking wet out there!
Whether we are talking rain games or not, this Carolina offense has been brutal this season. While PJ Walker had a good game against the Falcons, he made sure to fire back with his worst career performance last week, getting benched for Baker Mayfield. Walker is set to start again, but it’s hard to trust this Panthers offense to produce much organically. With a 3-point spread and a 43-point total, it seems like the sportsbooks are expecting a fairly low-scoring, close game. I agree with that assessment, and I believe Atlanta will be up for most of this game, which benefits this rushing attack.
Patterson’s touchdown at +110 is definitely a good bet, but I like the +750 odds on two touchdowns at FanDuel. Caesars and BetMGM currently have this between +450 and +500, so it’s nice to see some value here. Patterson currently has a touchdown in four of his five games this season, with one multi-TD game. Last week would have been his second game with two, but one was called back on a questionable penalty.
While Atlanta splits the usage between multiple backs, it seems like Patterson is trusted the most in the red zone. He also adds an additional amount of flexibility to the play-calling with his pass-catching ability. With the rain heavy forecast, I expect plenty of opportunities for him this week, so this is worth a sprinkle at +750.
