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Chris Meaney
Sam EhlingerPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Colts
Right now, Sam Ehlinger’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 190.5 (-115) after it opened @ 189.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 4th-most yards in football (278.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.8%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.70 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 1.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Sam Ehlinger has been among the least efficient QBs in football this year, averaging just 5.60 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 14th percentile.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
12
Passing Yards
12
Passing Yards
