Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Ehlinger from EV Insight

Sam EhlingerPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Ehlinger’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 190.5 (-115) after it opened @ 189.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have passed for the 4th-most yards in football (278.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.8%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.70 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 1.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Sam Ehlinger has been among the least efficient QBs in football this year, averaging just 5.60 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 14th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
12
Passing Yards