Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
These teams got off to wildly different starts this season. The Seahawks went into Indianapolis and throttled the Colts, while the Titans were demolished at home vs. the Cardinals. Now, the Titans will need to pull off a victory in Seattle — one of the toughest road venues in football — to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole to start the year.
Can the Titans pull off the upset? Let’s dive into this matchup and try to identify some betting value.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks Week 2 Odds
Date/Time: September 19, 4:25 p.m. ET
Arena: Lumen Field
How to watch: CBS
Opening odds: Seahawks -6.0 | O/U 54.0
Latest Titans-Seahawks odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Seahawks -5.5
- Total: 54.0
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Titans vs. Seahawks
This game has actually seen some significant movement compared to the advance line. The Seahawks were listed as just 3.5-point favorites before the Week 1 games started, but what happened on the field obviously had an impact. The Seahawks dominated vs. the Colts while the Titans struggled vs. the Cardinals, which caused the line to open up at six points in most of the betting markets.
The over also took a significant jump. The advance total was 49.0 points, but the line moved to 54.0 following Week 1.
That kind of line movement is pretty extreme after just one week of games, so unsurprisingly, the majority of the big bets are taking the perceived value. The Titans have received 69% of the spread dollars, while the under has received 89% of the money on the total.
Quarterback analysis – Ryan Tannehill vs. Dak Prescott
Tannehill is known as a game manager instead of a gunslinger, but he’s one of the best game managers in the league. He led the league in adjusted yards per attempt two years ago, and he finished fourth in that department last year.
Despite Tannehill’s solid marks, the Titans have been a mediocre team against the spread with him at the helm. They’ve posted a record of 13-13-1 ATS during the regular season with Tannehill at quarterback, including a mark of 4-4 as underdogs
Russell Wilson looked as good as ever last week. He averaged a ridiculous 14.52 adjusted yards per attempt thanks to 254 passing yards and four touchdowns on just 23 attempts.
The volume isn’t an encouraging sign for Wilson, who seems to be hamstrung by the Seahawks’ timid playcalling on a yearly basis. It’s not surprising that the Seahawks leaned on the run given their comfortable victory, but they still posted the fourth-lowest pass rate last week when the game was within a two-score margin.
Even with the Seahawks’ playing suboptimally, Wilson has historically been a stud against the spread at home. He owns a 40-29-3 ATS record during the regular season in Seattle.
Latest Titans betting news & info
There was some optimism that Tannehill could take another step forward this year. The Titans brought in Julio Jones during the offseason, giving Tannehill two stud receivers to lean on.
Unfortunately, Chandler Jones had other ideas. He had five sacks vs. the Titans last week, and Tannehill was pressured on 17 of 43 dropbacks. His Pro Football Focus grade vs. the Cardinals dropped from 76.8 with a clean pocket to 42.5 when pressured.
The Cardinals also did an excellent job against Derrick Henry, limiting him to just 3.4 yards per carry on 17 attempts. The Titans ranked second in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards in 2020-21, but they dropped to 27th in that department in Week 1.
Perhaps the Cardinals are just going to have a dominant defensive line this year — Jones and J.J. Watt are definitely an outstanding duo — but the Titans’ offensive line is going to be worth monitoring. If they can’t improve, it could be a rough year for the Titans’ offense.
Latest Seahawks betting news & info
Wilson got most of the attention for the Seahawks in Week 1, but their defense also played well. They were an abomination at times in 2020-21, particularly against the pass. They rebounded a bit over the second half of the season, but they still finished just 20th in pass defense DVOA.
They improved to 15th in Week 1, albeit against a subpar Colts’ passing attack. The defense remains the Seahawks’ biggest question mark this season, but there is at least reason for optimism at the current time.
Titans vs. Seahawks betting picks – NFL Week 1
One of the best ways to become a profitable NFL bettor is to have a short memory. Yes, the Titans played extremely poorly last week, but that was just one week! It just so happen to come in the first week of the season, so it’s natural to want to overreact.
That said, nothing has fundamentally changed about the Titans’ outlook. They won 11 games and made the playoffs last year, and they still look like a better team on paper this season. I’m happy to scoop the extra points in this matchup and hope for some positive regression. The Seahawks’ pass rush isn’t expected to be nearly as potent as the Cardinals, so their offensive line should fare much better in this matchup. That means the Titans can do what they do best: establish the run and allow Tannehill to utilize play action.
Here are our betting picks for Titans vs. Seahawks in Week 2.
FTNBets best bets
- Titans +5.5
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
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