WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams game for Week 5.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
PHI -4.5, O/U 50.5
Pace: PHI: 26.1 sec/snap (10th), LAR: 27.9 sec/snap (23rd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Kyren Williams has played 91.2% of third downs this season, the third-highest rate among running backs.
- A.J. Brown has accounted for 47.5% of Philadelphia’s air yards (3rd).
- Dallas Goedert has just four end-zone targets since the 2021 season.
- The Eagles are running the ball 63% of the time from inside the red zone (5th).
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts is coming off his best game of the year, completing 25-of-37 passes for 319 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while adding 34 rushing yards. You will continue to start him, though it is worth pointing out that the Rams pass defense has been way better than anyone might have thought so far this season, Despite facing Joe Burrow, Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith and Brock Purdy, the Rams are surrendering the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers (14.3). The Rams have mostly played zone coverage, while Hurts is completing over 79% of his passes against zone.
Running Back
In Week 3, the Eagles rotated the running backs by quarter, with D’Andre Swift playing the first and third, and Kenneth Gainwell the second and fourth. It started that way, but the Eagles eventually played Swift more later in the game, resulting in a 64% snap share. He also handled 75% of the team’s running back touches and even scored a touchdown from inside the five-yard line. The Eagles run game is doing whatever they want right now, as Swift is averaging a healthy 3.47 yards before contact. And since Week 2, Swift is averaging 22 touches per game. On the year, the Eagles are running the ball 63% of the time from inside the red zone, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Swift will face a Los Angeles defense that has allowed opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 70% of red-zone trips thus far, the seventh-highest rate in the league. He remains a very strong RB2.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown’s slow start is a thing of the past. He went off Sunday for 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns, giving him 18 catches, 27 targets and 306 yards over the last two weeks. He now ranks top five among all wideouts in target share (35%) and air yards share (45.7%), which is exactly the usage you want to see from a receiver, especially someone with Brown’s talent. The Rams have been a top-10 unit against wide receivers so far this season, but you also shouldn’t fear this matchup. You are starting Brown, as well as DeVonta Smith, who has taken a bit of a backseat to Brown as of late. However, he still has a healthy 24% target share.
Tight End
We have seen a handful of tight ends disappoint so far this season, including Dallas Goedert. He has yet to reach 45 receiving yards in a game this season, while going under 30 yards three times. His 15.7% target share ranks just 15th among all tight ends, while he continues to see zero usage around the goal line. Goedert has a total of four end-zone targets since the start of the 2021 season, while his yards per target, yards per reception and air yards per route run are all career-lows. The route participation remains elite, as Goedert has run a route on a whopping 92% of dropbacks this season. I’m still starting Goedert unless I added Sam LaPorta or maybe Zach Ertz, and this could finally be Goedert’s week against a Rams defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (12.5).
Quarterback
Do you need one touchdown pass from your quarterback? Look no further than Matthew Stafford, who has reached exactly that mark in all but one game this year. Don’t mistake that for him playing poorly, as Stafford has been stellar this season and now may get reinforcements in the form of long-time breakfast buddy, Cooper Kupp. I love this spot for Stafford, facing a pass-funnel Philadelphia defense that has not been good against quarterbacks. 80.5% of the yardage against the Eagles has come through the air, the highest rate in football. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has produced the QB2, QB2, QB25 and QB13 in fantasy, and that was facing Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell. Philadelphia is allowing a 5.5% passing touchdown rate (fifth-worst), making Stafford a top-tier streaming candidate for the week.
Running Back
Kyren Williams just keeps scoring touchdowns. He scored two more on Sunday, giving him six total scores for the season. As Sean McVay alluded to, Williams didn’t play 100% of the snaps against the Colts, but he did play 72% and handled 28 of 39 running back touches. Williams is now third in the league with five rushing attempts from inside the five-yard line (5), while also playing a whopping 91.2% of the Rams’ third downs, the third-highest rate in the league. I worry about the efficiency against an elite Philadelphia run defense that has allowed just 6.6% of carries against them to gain 10-plus yards. However, the volume clearly isn’t going anywhere, so you can’t bench him.
Wide Receiver
Through the first four weeks, Puka Nacua has been dominant. He ranks first in receptions (39) and targets (52), as well as second in receiving yards (501). His 32.5% target share also ranks inside the top five, but it’ll be interesting to see what the usage looks like if Cooper Kupp makes his season-debut this week. Will Nacua see 13 targets per game going forward? No. However, he is still earning targets at a massive rate, which isn’t a fluke, meaning he’ll stay heavily involved in this offense. We have seen Robert Woods in past seasons as the WR11, WR14 and WR13 as a No. 2 wideout with the Rams, and Nacua is seeing targets at a much higher rate than Woods did. As for the matchup, the Eagles have been struggling against wideouts thus far, coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Kupp is active, Nacua is still a top-20 wideout.
Speaking of Kupp, if he’s active for the Rams, he is active for your fantasy team. The Rams stated they wouldn’t play Kupp unless he was 100% healthy, so if he suits up, you have to believe he’s full-go. Friendly reminder that Kupp averaged 22.4 PPR points per game last year, the most in the league. And over the last two seasons, he is flirting with 25 fantasy points per contest. Dating back to the 2021 season, Kupp has seen double-digit targets in 20 of his last 26 games, while sporting target shares of 31 and 31.7% over the last two seasons.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee has recorded consecutive strong outings (5-71-0, 5-64-0), and on the year, the veteran tight end has run a route on a healthy 86% of dropbacks. It didn’t quite come to fruition with Logan Thomas last week, but you can target tight ends against the Eagles, who are allowing the third-most fantasy points (15.9), sixth-most receiving yards (58.5) and second-most touchdowns (0.75) per game to the position this season.
