The Read Option, Week 10: Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears game for Week 10.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

CHI -3, O/U 40.5
Pace: CAR: 28.7 sec/snap (29th), CHI: 29.5 sec/snap (30th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• DJ Moore is posting an aDOT of 9.3 yards with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.
• His aDOT was 15.6 yards with Justin Fields under center.
• Moore has been under 60 receiving yards in four straight games.
• Chuba Hubbard has played 65% of the snaps and handled 70% of the rushing attempts over the last two weeks.

Quarterback

Bryce Young struggled again Sunday, throwing for just 173 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions against the Colts. Young has hardly been fantasy relevant, posting one finish better than QB15, while ranking 31st out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.31). We have four more teams on bye this week, with three of the elite fantasy quarterbacks unavailable, which puts Young on the map, especially considering the favorable matchup. Chicago is surrendering the highest passing touchdown rate in the league this season (6.1%), while their 15.5% pressure rate ranks dead last. That is important for Young, who is completing just 42% of his passes (fourth worst) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions when under pressure. 

Running Back

A few weeks back, Carolina said that they would use more of a committee at running back. However, that really hasn’t been the case. Instead, Chiba Hubbard has handled the majority of the work, with Miles Sanders taking a backseat. Over the last two weeks, Hubbard has played 65% of the snaps, while handling 70% of Carolina’s total rushing attempts. He is averaging a healthy 18.5 touches per game during that span, but Hubbard has struggled to get much going, rushing for 86 total yards over his last two games. The volume should remain strong again, though Chicago’s run defense has quietly been very strong this season. The Bears are allowing just 9.1% of runs against them to gain 10-plus yards (8th-best), while no team is allowing fewer yards per carry this season (3.3). Only the Lions, Jaguars and Eagles are allowing fewer rushing yards per game to opposing backfields than the Bears (63.1). There could be a path in the receiving game, however, as the Bears are coughing up the fourth-most receptions (6.1) and most receiving yards (64.2) per game to running backs. Hubbard is on the RB2/flex radar once again this week.

CAR RBs since Week 8

Wide Receiver

With Carolina’s passing game failing to do much last week, Adam Thielen had his worst game since Week 1, catching five passes for 29 yards. Thielen still has a very strong 28% target share on the season, while drawing a target on 23% of his routes. The Bears have been a bit of a pass funnel this season, as a whopping 76.3% of the yardage gained against them has come through the air, the third-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 71.4% of the touchdowns scored against Chicago have been via the pass, the fifth-highest rate. Thielen will remain the focal point of this passing attack, as he has accounted for 37% of Carolina’s receiving yards this year, the eighth-highest rate in football. The veteran remains a low-end WR2 with a very solid floor against the Bears.

Tight End

Tommy Tremble continues to take playing time and opportunities away from Hayden Hurst, making this a situation to avoid for fantasy, especially in one of the league’s worst passing offenses.

Quarterback

As of this moment, we still don’t know who will start at quarterback for the Bears. Justin Fields continues to work his way back from a thumb injury and while he’s listed as day-to-day, the short week could make things difficult. If Fields does start, he’d return to top-10 status at the quarterback position against a Carolina defense that is allowing the third-most points (2.36) per drive on the year. Meanwhile, opposing offenses are scoring points on 40.2% of drives against the Panthers, the eighth-worst rate in the league. Teams aren’t passing a lot against Carolina because their run defense is so bad but when they do throw, they find success. The Panthers are allowing the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.0%). Carolina is also allowing a 56% completion rate on passes 20-plus air yards, the second-worst rate, while 16% of Fields’ pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards, the third-highest rate.

Of course, if Fields can’t play, it’ll once again be Tyson Bagent under center for the Bears. He easily had his best game of the year last week, throwing for 220 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw three interceptions. Bagent would only be viable for desperate superflex rosters if he starts again.

Running Back

It is really difficult to break down this Chicago backfield at the moment. Khalil Herbert is eligible to return this week and if he does, I’d imagine some sort of split between him and D’Onta Foreman on early downs, with Foreman likely getting slightly more work. In Herbert’s absence, Foreman has operated as Chicago’s lead running back, averaging a solid 16.2 touches per game. When the Bears have been playing with a lead or in a tight battle, Foreman has gotten work. When they fall behind, Roschon Johnson tends to play more, as he’s played 75% of the team’s two-minute snaps over the last two weeks. This feels like a game where the Bears can play with a lead, but Foreman’s usage would obviously be cut into if Herbert is active. The matchup is so favorable, too, as 12.2% of the runs against the Panthers have gained 10-plus yards, the seventh-highest rate in the league. They are also allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. 

If Herbert is active, he and Foreman are mid-range flex plays as home favorites against a bad run defense. If Herbert is out, Foreman becomes a low-end RB2 with top-15 upside.

Wide Receiver

How we feel about DJ Moore depends on who is starting at quarterback for the Bears. With Bagent under center, Moore is actually seeing more targets (24% target share), but they aren’t as valuable or exciting. In fact, with Bagent at quarterback this season, Moore is sporting an aDOT of 9.3 yards, while 18.2% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield. But when playing alongside Fields, Moore’s aDOT is all the way up at 15.6 yards, with 35% of his targets coming 20-plus yards down the field. Moore has yet to reach 60 receiving yards in a game with Bagent, as nearly 24% of his pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage. There have also been more screen passes headed Moore’s direction as of late, which is interesting against a Carolina defense that has been a bottom-five pass defense against screens. They have also struggled to defend opposing top wideouts as of late. Moore is a solid floor WR2/WR3 if Bagent starts and an upside WR2 if Fields returns.

Tight End

Cole Kmet has been on a tear over the last two weeks, hauling in a total of 16-of-18 targets for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He has a 28% target share during that span, which certainly isn’t going to last, but given his production right now, Kmet is a borderline must-start tight end. Carolina actually allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but they’ve really only faced two or three relevant players.