Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every pick you make in fantasy football comes with some level of risk – even your first rounders. These risks come in various shapes and sizes, and some of the more common ones include risk of injury, supporting cast concerns, and worries about a player’s age (either too young or too old).
The experts at FTN Fantasy account for risk when building their rankings. Going through a risk evaluation is a valuable way to cater your draft board to your own personal risk tolerance, and to help you do that for your 2023 drafts, I’ll walk you through what I look for when evaluating risk. To do this, I’m looking at the top 10 wide receivers in our expert’s rankings, and asking myself one simple question…
“What could go wrong?”
By answering that question and evaluating how likely it is to happen, I can build a risk score that influences my own draft board. Here’s what that exercise looks like.
(Check out the rest of the series: QB | RB | TE)
WR1: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Drafting Justin Jefferson with your first-round pick is as close to a sure thing as there is in fantasy football. However, even Jefferson isn’t impervious to risk, and there’s a chance his numbers take a dip in 2023 due to some increased target competition. The Vikings just spent a first-round pick on Jordan Addison, and on top of that, T.J. Hockenson will have a full offseason with the team to get better acclimated with Kirk Cousins and the offense. Volume is king in fantasy football, and if Jefferson cedes too much of it to the other pass catchers in Minnesota, that could spell trouble for his fantasy ceiling.
Risk Level: Low
Even with the addition of Addison, no sane coach or quarterback is going to target a rookie at the expense of arguably the game’s best receiver. Sure, Jefferson’s 28% target share could come down a hair in 2023, but it’s highly unlikely it falls below 25%, which is still a fantastic mark.
WR2: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
The biggest risk with Ja’Marr Chase is related to the health of his quarterback. Luckily Joe Burrow avoided a major injury when he was carted off the practice field earlier this offseason, but Burrow has yet to return and if he struggles getting healthy, that could spell trouble for his pass catchers. Even if Burrow does suit up for Week 1, the injury could linger and hamper his performance all season.
Risk Level: Moderate
All signs indicate Burrow will be ready for Week 1, but the fact that an injury already occurred means this selection has to come with at least a moderate level of risk. Chase is an elite talent who should still be fine if Burrow’s not 100%, but any drop in quarterback play would have to reduce both Chase’s floor and ceiling at least a little bit.
WR3: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
There may not be a player in the NFL more explosive than Tyreek Hill. The main problem with players whose games are built on explosiveness is they tend to fall off a cliff rather quickly when they lose a fraction of a step. At 29 years old, Hill is getting close to the age where we need to consider when his dropoff is going to occur. If 2023 is the year where it does, he could be a major disappointment for his fantasy football managers.
Risk Level: Low
Even if Hill is the archetype for players who fall off when they lose a step, there hasn’t been any indication that he’ll lose that step anytime soon. He was absolutely dominant in 2022, and at this point in time, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be falling off in the immediate future.
WR4: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
When both a wide receiver and his quarterback are coming off season-ending injuries, you have to proceed with caution the following season. Matthew Stafford in particular has dealt with a number of injuries in recent years, many of which have been fairly significant. At 35 years old, it’s hard not to wonder if he’ll ever return to his elite form. There’s injury risk for every football player, but Stafford in particular feels like a higher risk than most.
Risk Level: High
While Cooper Kupp can still survive without Stafford under center, he certainly won’t be posting elite numbers again. Over the last four years, Kupp has averaged a whopping 9.7 PPG (0.5 PPR) more when playing with Stafford compared to any other quarterback. The overall WR1 upside is still there if you want to bank on a healthy Stafford, but that would certainly be a risky bet.
WR5: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Much like what was highlighted in the quarterback article, the risk for Stefon Diggs is the same as it is for Josh Allen. This offseason there were rumblings of a frustrated Diggs leaving practice abruptly and causing a bit of a stir at Bills camp. If anything happens and Diggs decides to demand a trade or sit out games due to frustration with the team, his fantasy stock would take a major hit.
Risk Level: Low
Whatever it was that got Diggs riled up this offseason, things appear to have cooled off. It’s been months since we’ve heard of any problems coming out of Buffalo, and all signs indicate both Diggs and his QB are in line for great seasons in 2023.
WR6: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Much like with Jefferson, the primary risk with CeeDee Lamb is a potential dip in target share. The Cowboys added Brandin Cooks this offseason, and on top of that Michael Gallup is now another year removed from his ACL injury. Better competition for targets could mean Lamb’s 28% market share takes a dip that causes both his fantasy floor and ceiling to come down a bit. Throw in the fact that Mike McCarthy is taking over playcalling duties this year, and there’s a world where Lamb’s role in the offense changes enough to hurt his fantasy performance somewhat significantly.
Risk Level: Low
Cooks and Gallup won’t scare me away from drafting Lamb with confidence. He’s the clear alpha in this passing attack, and Dallas’ offensive game plans should revolve around his skill set. We’ve seen McCarthy be friendly to his WR1s when calling plays in the past, and I expect more of the same this year now that he’s calling the shots for this Cowboys’ offense.
WR7: A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles offense took the league by storm last year, and A.J. Brown was a primary reason why. The offense as a whole was insanely efficient, but efficiency has a tendency to regress to the mean season over season, and any regression could spell trouble for Brown. With plenty of mouths to feed in this offense (DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and a punishing ground game), any dip in efficiency would make it an uphill battle for Brown to repeat as a top WR again in 2023.
Likelihood: Low
Even if there’s a bit of regression, it’s hard to envision the Eagles offense being anything but elite again in 2023. Plus, even with talented guys like Smith and Goedert around him on offense, Brown still demanded a 28% target share and should once again be the alpha in this offense. Much like with Jefferson and Lamb, Brown’s simply too talented to not be a focal point of this offense.
WR8: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
“High floor” is a common phrase that you’ll hear associated with Amon-Ra St. Brown’s game. He’s been a target machine in recent years, but that could change with potential weapons Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams (after a six0game suspension) entering the equation. The Lions offense was a pleasant surprise last year during Ben Johnson’s first year calling plays, and it’s tough to predict what his offense will look like with a few exciting new faces in the mix. A more well-rounded attack could be in the plans this year, and while that may be a good thing for the Lions offense, that could diminish St. Brown’s fantasy output.
Risk Rating: Low
Even with the additions of Williams and Gibbs, St. Brown’s target share should be safe. Neither of those two play a similar role to St. Brown in the offense, and it’s unlikely Detroit’s leading receiver is the one who cedes work to the new guys. Is it possible? Sure, but very unlikely.
WR9: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Many made the mistake last year of dropping Davante Adams too far in the rankings due to the dropoff in his quarterback play. Those of us who did wound up regretting it, but the dropoff this year may be so significant that even Adams can’t overcome it. While Derek Carr is no Aaron Rodgers, he’s much better equipped to support a dominant WR1 than Jimmy Garoppolo is. Throw in the fact that Garoppolo himself is dealing with an injury, and the QB situation in Las Vegas may be too much for even Adams to overcome.
Likelihood: Moderate
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Davante Adams should once again see an insane number of targets that will keep his floor relatively high, but it’s hard not to be at least moderately concerned about the quality of those targets.
WR10: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
While young receivers have taken the league by storm in recent years, we can’t ignore the fact that Garrett Wilson only has one year of NFL production under his belt. Even though last year was elite, there’s always the risk that it was simply a flash in the pan. We’ve seen plenty of one hit wonders in the NFL, and Wilson could easily be the next name on that list.
Likelihood: Moderate
While one hit wonders certainly happen in the NFL, they usually don’t impact receivers who posted 1,1000okys yards in their debut season. Throw in the fact that Wilson’s getting a major quarterback upgrade with Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets this year, and even though the track record is limited, drafting Wilson still doesn’t come with a lot of risk.
