NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Every pick you make in fantasy football comes with some level of risk – even your first rounders. These risks come in various shapes and sizes, and some of the more common ones include risk of injury, supporting cast concerns, and worries about a player’s age (either too young or too old).
The experts at FTN Fantasy account for risk when building their rankings. Going through a risk evaluation is a valuable way to cater your draft board to your own personal risk tolerance, and to help you do that for your 2023 drafts, I’ll walk you through what I look for when evaluating risk. To do this, I’m looking at the top 10 running backs in our expert’s rankings, and asking myself one simple question…
“What could go wrong?”
By answering that question and evaluating how likely it is to happen, I can build a risk score that influences my own draft board. Here’s what that exercise looks like.
(Check out the rest of the series: QB | WR | TE)
RB1: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Every running back comes with some level of injury risk, but there’s reason to believe Christian McCaffrey’s is higher than most. His workload is likely going to be massive in San Francisco, and that volume paired with a lengthy injury history and being on the wrong side of the age curve raises red flags for fantasy football’s RB1.
Risk Level: Moderate
Just because McCaffrey was healthy in 2022 doesn’t guarantee the same will occur this year. Last draft season, injury risk alone bumped him out of the consensus 1.01 spot, and the risk hasn’t gone away. The upside he possesses means he’s still worth the risk for most, but if you like to be cautious with early first-round picks, steer clear of McCaffrey.
RB2: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
This offseason, Austin Ekeler has pioneered the fight for better running pay and working conditions. One of the major narratives surrounding that movement has been the brutal workload running backs face. Ekeler’s been a workhorse for the Chargers ever since Melvin Gordon left town, but he may advocate for a lighter burden in 2023 to help prolong his career given his stance on how his position is treated.
Risk Level: Low
While less wear and tear may be what Ekeler wants, it’s unlikely that’s what he gets. The Chargers believe they’re a Super Bowl team this year, and there’s not much help at running back on the roster outside of the. They essentially have no choice but to keep him on the field frequently.
RB3: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
I’ll admit, I got nothing for this one. In my opinion, Saquon Barkley is the safest bet out of all the first-round running backs this year. There’s little turnover on the Giants’ coaching staff and roster, he’s two years removed from his major injury, his age indicates he’s in the prime of his career, and he catches plenty of passes to provide a rock-solid floor. Simply put, he checks all the boxes from a risk perspective.
Risk Level: Low
If you’re looking for the closest thing to a can’t-miss pick at RB in Round 1, Barkley’s your guy.
RB4: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
We’re entering year 2 (or maybe 1.5) of the Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland, and the massive amount of money and draft capital the Browns forked over to acquire him indicates they want him to be the face of their franchise. For many running backs, the addition of a franchise QB can be a boost for their fantasy value. For a guy like Nick Chubb who doesn’t catch many passes, it could indicate a significant decrease in volume. If Cleveland becomes a pass happy team in 2023, that could spell trouble for Chubb.
Risk Level: Low
Even if the Browns sling it a little more this year, Chubb is still going to get his fair share of touches. Any reduction in team rushing volume could easily be offset by the loss of Kareem Hunt. Plus, if Watson provides a boost to the entire offense, that could mean more touchdown opportunities for Chubb.
RB5: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Like the rest of the fantasy community, I’m very excited to see what Bijan Robinson brings to the Falcons in year one. While Robinson is considered a “can’t miss” prospect, there’s still risk in drafting a guy who’s yet to take a single NFL snap. No matter how highly touted they are, every rookie comes with some level of risk, and Robinson is no exception.
Risk Level: Moderate
Running backs who get drafted as highly as Robinson don’t bust very often, and the fact that Atlanta invested such a high pick in him means they have plans to use him early and often. I tend to be more risk averse than most when it comes to drafting rookies, but if you don’t share the same concern, it’d be easy to consider Robinson a low-risk selection with sky-high upside.
RB6: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
People have predicted it for years now and been wrong time after time, but sooner or later, the wheels are going to fall off for Derrick Henry. He’s been arguably the most dominant back in football for the past few seasons, but that dominance has come with a cost. Henry’s workload has been massive these past few seasons, and eventually the workload may take its toll on the 29-year-old back.
Risk Level: High
The age cliff is a real thing for running backs, and Henry’s age should be a major red flag for drafters planning to spend an early pick on him. His upside is still one of the highest in the league, but risk-averse drafters are better off looking elsewhere with their first-/second-round picks.
RB7: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
The risk with Jonathan Taylor is fairly obvious — he may decide not to play football this year. Contract disputes and frustration with ownership have led to Taylor wanting out of Indianapolis this year, and he may be willing to hold out until he gets his wish.
Likelihood: Low
Right now, Taylor has very little leverage in any trade or contract negotiations. He’s still on his rookie contract, and a successful holdout given the circumstances would be unprecedented. I’m not letting the offseason drama push Taylor down my draft boards.
RB8: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard dominated in relief of Ezekiel Elliott whenever the latter missed time. The big question with Pollard is can he sustain that dominance over the course of a full season? He was one of the most efficient backs in football last year, but efficiency tends to go down as volume goes up, and Pollard doesn’t have the true workhorse build like his predecessor did.
Risk Rating: Low
Because Pollard’s been a backup throughout his career, he’s seen minimal wear and tear relative to other backs his age. The competition in the Cowboys’ backfield is minimal, and even if he does see a slight dip in efficiency this year, a projected uptick in volume should offset that dip.
RB9: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Much like with Jonathan Taylor, the big risk with Josh Jacobs is he holds out and misses at least a few games this year. The outlook for the Raiders looks pretty bleak this year, and Jacobs is aware the team may not have a Super Bowl ceiling. He doesn’t have many years left in his NFL career, and he may not want to sign up for a high-volume season with a team lacking championship aspirations.
Likelihood: Moderate
I believe there’s more risk with Jacobs than Taylor given the status of his contract. UnlIke Taylor, Jacobs just finished his rookie contract and he’s yet to sign his franchise tag. He doesn’t have a ton of leverage (no running backs do), but he does have enough to at least cause the Vegas front office to sweat a little.
RB10: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
“Avoid Patriot running backs” used to be a very common rule in fantasy football drafts. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have been notoriously frustrating for fantasy managers due to the unpredictable nature of their backfield rotation. Rhamondre Stevenson was largely immune to this trend last year, but Bill O’Brien is back as offensive coordinator, and he may want to get back to what’s worked in years past for this Patriots’ backfield.
Likelihood: Moderate
It’s hard to trust this coaching staff for fantasy purposes. Stevenson is notably more talented than the rest of the backs in New England, but the team’s perceived interest in Dalvin Cook paired with their historic tendencies means drafting Stevenson comes with at least a moderate level of risk.
