Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every pick you make in fantasy football comes with some level of risk – even your first rounders. These risks come in various shapes and sizes, and some of the more common ones include risk of injury, supporting cast concerns, and worries about a player’s age (either too young or too old).
The experts at FTN Fantasy account for risk when building their rankings. Going through a risk evaluation is a valuable way to cater your draft board to your own personal risk tolerance, and to help you do that for your 2023 drafts, I’ll walk you through what I look for when evaluating risk. To do this, I’m looking at the top five tight ends in our expert’s rankings, and asking myself one simple question…
“What could go wrong?”
By answering that question and evaluating how likely it is to happen, I can build a risk score that influences my own draft board. Here’s a peek into what that exercise looks like:
(Check out the rest of the series: QB | RB | WR)
WR1: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce is turning 34 this year, and eventually the wheels are going to fall off for the sure-fire Hall of Famer. Age declines tend to happen rapidly, and it’s always better to be a year too early than a year too late when they do. Kelce should still be Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 target this year, but it’s possible that as his age catches up to him, the value associated with that role is no longer worthy of an early first-round pick.
Risk Level: Low
Even though Father Time will win out eventually, we haven’t seen any signs of decline from Kelce yet. Tight end is a position where players can play a little longer than most, and the upside with Kelce far outweighs the risk.
WR2: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
There’s a lot of excitement surrounding what the Ravens’ offense can do this year. Many expect the passing attack to take a leap, but even if it does, that may not mean good news for Mark Andrews. The Baltimore receiving corps added Odell Beckham and first-round rookie Zay Flowers this year, and they’re also getting Rashod Bateman back from injury. All these additions mean Andrews’ role in the offense suddenly looks less appealing. He’s always been Lamar Jackson’s go-to guy, but there’s a real risk that his role takes a significant step back this year.
Risk Level: Moderate
Andrews ranked first in the league among tight ends last year with a 28% target share. I don’t think that number is repeatable with all the new mouths to feed, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 target. The risk of target reduction is real for Andrews, but it shouldn’t be so drastic that he falls outside the top five TEs come season’s end.
TE3: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Much like with Andrews, the major risk for T.J. Hockenson this year involves the addition of a rookie wide receiver. Reports out of camp have been glowing for Jordan Addison, and if Kirk Cousins wants to get him the ball often, it’s a lot more likely those targets come at the expense of Hockenson than Justin Jefferson.
Risk Level: Moderate
Outside of Jefferson, Hockenson was really the only game in town for this Vikings passing attack last year. He averaged over 8 targets per game in Minnesota which led to a fantastic finish in fantasy football (TE2 in most formats). Unfortunately for Hockenson, it’s more likely that the target number goes down than up in 2023.
TE4: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
A lack of volume has been a common risk in this tight end piece, and that’s once again the potential cause for concern here. The 49ers have arguably the best group of skill position players in the league, and George Kittle is likely to finish no higher than fourth on the team in targets. Throw in the fact that the 49ers put a heavy emphasis on running the football, and even though Kittle has the talent to finish as a top tight end this year, the opportunity (or lack thereof) may be too tough to overcome.
Risk Level: High
Kittle was dominant last year, but the majority of his fantasy production came when Deebo Samuel was sidelined with injury. While Samuel is no stranger to injury, I wouldn’t want to bank on that happening again to get production out of my TE. I love Kittle as a player, but his fantasy profile is too risky for me to have much draft exposure this year.
TE5: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Not to beat a dead horse, but once again the main issue with a tight end on this list is a potential lack of volume. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are arguably the best WR duo in the league, and they accounted for a whopping 54% of the Eagles’ targets last year. Throw in the fact that the Eagles should once again have a dominant rushing attack, and Dallas Goedert’s opportunity may simply be too small for a solid fantasy finish.
Risk Level: Moderate
While Goedert does have two alpha receivers ahead of him in line for targets, he’s extremely efficient with the targets he does get. He led all TEs last year with 10.2 yards per target, and all the attention Brown and Smith garner should allow him to once again remain highly efficient. Goedert’s ceiling is limited due to the lack of targets, but the talent paired with being in a good offense should keep his floor fairly high.
