Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Wednesday, Aug. 30
Howard pulls the sixth pick in his fantasy football home-league draft for 2023. PPR, 12 teams, pretty standard. He’s done his research. He’s ready.
First Round
Yeah, he got hurt in the preseason, but reports are he’s improving and will be ready to go. So Howard takes Cooper Kupp. Have you seen everything he’s done when healthy the last two years? You can’t beat that. Surely Kupp will make it to Week 1 healthy and be a star again.
Second Round
The downside of taking Kupp in the first round is Howard feels obligated to take a more sure-thing receiver in the second round. Kupp’s ceiling is electric, but if anything goes wrong, he’ll need some guaranteed production. So maybe it’s a tiny reach, but in the second round, Howard grabs his sure thing in Tee Higgins.
Third Round
Here’s where Howard realizes he’s going quasi-zero-RB this year. Don’t enter with a strategy, let the first few rounds dictate your strategy for you. And with Mark Andrews slipping a bit, Howard loves taking the No. 2 tight end in the game. His pass-catching core is exciting.
Fourth Round
Howard is all set to take Lamar Jackson to stack with Andrews, but when he gets sniped right before his pick, his mind locks on the idea of a quarterback stack and pairs his second-round Higgins pick with Joe Burrow. Maybe he doesn’t have Jackson’s ceiling, but there’s no real concern there.
Fifth Round
With no running back through four rounds, Howard decides he has to take someone with bell cow-esque tendencies. Maybe the gamescript won’t be in his favor, but it still makes sense to take Dameon Pierce here.
Sixth Round
This is PPR. Maybe Dameon Pierce won’t catch a lot of passes, so Howard grabs a back with big-time pass-catching upside. He figures he can’t go wrong with D’Andre Swift.
Seventh Round
Everyone loves Calvin Ridley in his return, but he should also boost Christian Kirk, who no longer has to carry the burden of being a team’s WR1. Easy pick here.
Eighth Round
Howard needs more strength in the backfield. Welcome to the team, AJ Dillon.
Ninth Round
If you wait until the fifth round to take a running back, you need to take extras later, so Howard dives in again on the position and grabs Antonio Gibson.
Tenth Round
Sure, he’s a wild card, but as a bench play with upside, Howard has to take a shot. Maybe he doesn’t have to use him, but it would be nice to stash Kadarius Toney and see.
Eleventh-Thirteenth Rounds
Roster depth here. Howard isn’t going to stretch too many muscles, not make any mistakes. Here we go, Adam Thielen, Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman.
Fourteenth Round
Howard gets clever! You handcuff running backs, not tight ends. But if you have Mark Andrews, why not get the single best tight end handcuff we’ve ever seen. Howard reels in Isaiah Likely.
Fifteenth Round
Howard doesn’t love it, but he has to grab a defense. Everyone’s been hyping the Dolphins DST, so come on down, Miami.
Sixteenth Round
Last round! The kicker round! The Steelers offense is on the rise, so that should leave plenty of kicking opportunities for Chris Boswell, let’s do this.
Sunday, Sept. 11
After dodging a bullet and leaving Kadarius Toney on his bench Thursday, Howard is pretty happy with his lineup for Week 1. Sure, he lost Cooper Kupp and Mark Andrews before it even started, and that stinks, but he did enough prep work to paper over it:
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Dameon Pierce
RB: D’Andre Swift
WR: Tee Higgins
WR: Christian Kirk
WR: Adam Thielen
TE: Isaiah Likely
Flex: AJ Dillon
K: Chris Boswell
DST: Miami
Howard’s busy Sunday. Family stuff. He gets home at around 7:30 p.m. ET and brings up his roster page. He blinks. Surely this must be wrong. He’s totaled … 23.28 points? How is that possible? That should have been a 110-point team easily. His bench players weren’t any better – everyone knows about Kadarius Toney‘s crash-and-burn, and Antonio Gibson, Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman did less than nothing themselves.
Despondent, Howard hears his phone buzz with a text. He glances. It’s Dave, the guy he’s facing in Week 1. He shakes his head. That’s Dave, always gloating. He opens the text.
“I’m so stupid,” Dave says. “I can’t believe I did that. Congrats.”
Howard doesn’t understand. Dave elaborates: He hadn’t set his lineup at all. He thought it automatically set after the draft, so he just went about his life, and he hadn’t had the chance to check it until the last few minutes either, just like Howard.
Howard’s amazed. After all that, after the worst fantasy week of all time, he’s still going to win. He stares at his roster and almost laughs.
Then, one more text from Dave.
“I only have one lineup move I can make at this point,” Dave says.
“My defense. I can still get the Cowboys DST into my lineup. So unless they go nuts, congrats, you win.”
