The Aging Curve: What Age Group Is Getting the Touches These Days?

A week ago in this space, I wrote about why over-30 running backs and wide receivers are even worse fantasy football investments than most probably think. A key part of that is that players who get work past their 30^th birthday still tend to perform fine on a per-touch basis, but the group at large gets less work than it used to.

So where is that work going?

If the over-30 contingent was getting the same work as always and just being less efficient with that work, the actionable advice would be simple: Ignore the old guys. But that’s not what’s happening. When older players (Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and so on) get the work, they are generally speaking still performing. But if a player is already on the fringe of relevance, that calendar flipping over is increasingly enough for teams to say “OK, let’s move on.” There were 33 over-30 running backs and wide receivers who got even a single touch last year; in 2004 (nearly 20 years ago), there were 33 such players at each position, 66 total. 

But the work does still exist, it’s just going to other players. Who is getting it? Let’s see.

(All ages are as of Dec. 31 of a given season.)

Running Back

Twenty years ago, in 2003, Priest Holmes got 394 touches at the age of 30. That’s more touches than any single player of any age had last year (Josh Jacobs led the way at 393). On the flip side, backs 23 and younger got 1,828 touches in 2003, compared to 3,557 for such players in 2022. That really illustrates the whole thing by itself, but it’s OK, because I have graphs:

I’m adding trendlines to the graph this time, because four lines can otherwise mask some trends. And the trends are pretty clear! Running backs in the age 24-26 bucket have stayed relatively steady, a slight increase over 20 years ago but nothing that can’t be chalked up to noise. Basically, whatever we thought about those guys 20 years ago, we can more or less think the same now.

The older crew, running backs 30 and older? It feels like our line’s gonna hit that X-axis in a few years. They were over 20% of the total RB touch load 20 years ago and over 16% as recently as 205, but that number hasn’t been above 10% since 2017 and was below 7% last year. It takes a very special running back to get work after age 30, and we just don’t have many of those anymore.

Take a look at last year’s top 10 in PPR points at running back at age 29 or older (so, the 30-plus contingent for 2023), and their roster status for this coming season:

1. Jerick McKinnon (free agent)
2. Raheem Mostert (Dolphins, part of a four-way backfield)
3. Cordarrelle Patterson (Falcons, rumored to be drafting a rookie back)
4. Latavius Murray (free agent)
5. Melvin Gordon (free agent)
6. Rex Burkhead (free agent)
7. J.D. McKissic (free agent)
8. Ameer Abdullah (Raiders, didn’t even have 30 touches last year)
9. Kyle Juszczyk (49ers, a fullback)
10. Mark Ingram (free agent)

If you had to bet your life on which 30-plus back would lead in fantasy scoring in 2023, you’d certainly take Mostert or Patterson, but you’d also be sweating a whole lot along the way.

And it isn’t like the dropoff has come right as they hit age 30. Running backs in the next age bucket down (27-29) have fared poorly as well, with a trendline over the last 20 years that is virtually equal to that of the 30-plus group, just starting from a spot about 15 percentage points higher. That cohort had a usage spike in 2022 on the backs of guys like Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette all hitting their age-27 season, as well as 28-year-old Derrick Henry returning from an injury-marred 2021, but the trends are pretty clear that the touches lost by the over-30 contingent aren’t being found by their just-younger peers.

Instead, we have to look even younger. Because after barely getting any work (11.9% of the touches) in 2003, the youngest group in the league — running backs age 23 and younger — have seen their workload explode, 24.7% last year and as high as 38.3% in 2018. 

In 2003, RBs 23 and younger got 15.2% of the total RB touches, compared to 19.6% for RBs 30 and older. Similar, with the older guys having the advantage. In 2022? The young group got 24.8%, while the older one got 8.7%. It went from a slight tilt toward 30-plus RBs to them having about a third the touches of the RBs 23 and younger. It’s been a wild swing.

This lines up with the narratives, of course — teams like running backs on their first contract, but they are increasingly happy to cut bait and move on to the next young guy rather than pay a guy an exorbitant salary for work that can be gotten much more cheaply. 

What Does It Mean for 2023?

There were only 13 backs in the NFL last year who got touches in 2022 that will still be 23 and younger in 2023. Of those, we can more or less not worry about seven (Kyren Williams, Kevin Harris, Snoop Conner, Tyrion Davis-Price, Tyler Badie, Isaiah Spiller, Julius Chestnut), leaving us six backs who could get that workload that is heading younger:

• Kenneth Walker — 255 touches, but didn’t really get heavy work until Week 6.
• Dameon Pierce — 250 touches, but season ended early to injury; flip side is Devin Singletary is on the roster now.
• Tyler Allgeier — Like Cordarrelle Patterson above, on a team that is rumored to be drafting a back. 
• Breece Hall, Javonte Williams — Both recovering from torn ACLs and no sure thing to be ready for Week 1.
• Zonovan Knight — Didn’t get his first touch until Week 11, had 298 yards and a score in first three games, then 102 and 0 over the last four.

Of course, that’s all burying the lede — this year’s rookie class. Bijan Robinson is going to be the RB1 wherever he lands. Jahmyr Gibbs might be as well. After those two, we’ll be looking at guys like Devon Achane, Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears and more. Some of those guys will start out as backups this year, but in the right landing spot, don’t be scared of grabbing a rookie back who could get massive work in 2023.

Wide Receiver

Over the last two seasons, over-30 receivers have had 1,231 touches combined. In 2003, it was 1,370, and that number didn’t drop below 1,300 until 2009. 

In 2003 and 2004, wide receivers 23 and younger had 1,702 combined touches. Last year, it was 1,656, and it hasn’t dropped below 1,500 since 2018.

Let’s talk percentages, and let’s look at the graph!

It’s not just that the 30-and-older group has trended downward, it’s that, as you can see by the trendline, it has followed the trendline astonishingly well. Like, it doesn’t work exactly like this obviously, but I’d be happy to bet that the over-30 group gets 7.9% of the WR touches in 2023, just by simple linear regression.

The list of guys who will be 30-plus in 2023 at the receiver position is much more impressive than the same at running back, with elite performers like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp on the list, in addition to stars like Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins. It dries up fast, though — Mack Hollins was eighth in PPR scoring among 29-plus WRs, Marvin Jones 11^th, Chris Moore 13^th. This aligns with our point at the top — the guys getting the touches at an advanced age are still great, the problem is just that there are way fewer of them than there used to be.

Where did the touches go? Unlike running back, the answer isn’t quite as clear. At running back, 24-26 held steady, while 27-29 declined at roughly the same rate as the 30-plus group, leaving the loss to be mostly absorbed by the 23-and-under crew. At wide receiver, the 30-plus group is the only one that has a negative trendline over the last 20 years, indicating decline. The 27-29 crew has increased only slightly, basically the same trend that the 24-26 group saw at running back.

At wide receiver, basically everyone under 26 is seeing a spike in work. It’s still the biggest among our youngest cohort, climbing about 10 percentage points over the last 20 years, but it’s worth paying extra attention to all wide receivers who are on the incline. 

What Does It Mean for 2023?

Let’s look at our youngest group again. Among receivers 22 and younger (will be in the 23-and-younger group in 23), we had 21 receivers get a touch in 2022. The list is deeper, even if eliminating the guys like Erik Ezukanma and Anthony Schwartz, who are no guarantees to get significant work in 2023. 

The 2022 rookie class was elite, with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave leading the way but Drake London, Treylon Burks, George Pickens and more having potential for later breakouts. The 2023 rookie class is considered less elite but arguably deeper, with not much in the way of superstar potential but a big load of guys who could be contributors. And considering our trends in the last few years, the old saw of “wide receivers take two, even three years to become productive” is one we should toss out. Don’t be surprised if more than a few names in this year’s rookie class are fantasy-relevant pretty fast as early as partway through their rookie seasons.