Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Ravens revived the buzz of free agent season this week by signing Odell Beckham, probably the top remaining free agent receiver remaining. That’s the exciting part.
The less exciting part? Odell Beckham hasn’t played in a year, is coming off his second torn ACL, and when he was “flashing” in his last season active, that amounted to 38.1 yards per game over eight games for the Rams.
And the worse? Beckham is 30 years old.
We’re all smart people. We know that football players (at least, non-quarterback football players) aren’t necessarily the most trustworthy fantasy options, and we devalue them as a result. And I’m just telling you right now: You don’t devalue them enough.
(For this chart and the rest of this article, player ages are as of Dec. 31 in a given season. So this also includes some almost-done-being-29-year-olds, but the point still works.)
In 2015, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen and more all turned 30, and there was a spike in 30-year-old production that year, which very slightly lasted into 2016. And other than that little bump, it’s been a pretty steady decrease in production from running backs and wide receivers 30 and older for more than 20 years now.
Where Are the Declines Coming From?
Quarterbacks have, as a group, largely been immune from the decline — 2,817.6 points in 2003, 2,756.0 last year, with all seasons of 3,000-plus points from the over-30s at the QB position coming over the last decade.
Tight end has largely been the same — the older members of the position didn’t top 1,000 PPR points between 2004 and 2009 but have been over 1,000 each of the last 11 seasons.
It would be tempting to blame the majority of the drop on running backs, because we know older running backs are super out of style these days. And it’s true, over-30 ball-carriers have fared poorly over the last 20 years. But wide receivers have had a rough go as well.
The above chart was just running backs and wide receivers as a group, but below let’s look at all four positions, to see how stark the drops are:
Comparing last year to 2023:
- Over-30 quarterbacks put up 97.8% of the fantasy points;
- Over-30 running backs put up 34.5%;
- Over-30 wide receivers put up 47.3%;
- Over-30 tight ends put up 101.5%.
Your older tight end and quarterback? Maybe fine. Your older running back and wide receiver? Get out, and get out now.
Are the Over-30 Players Playing Worse?
The question, then, is whether the players are playing worse, or whether they are just getting less of a chance. So then, two more graphs:
The tl;dr here is this: If you’re still getting touches when you’re 30 or older, you are probably fine. Those guys have been as efficient on their touches as ever (0.81 points per touch for running backs in 2003, 0.97 in 2022; 2.71 for receivers in 2003, 2.66 in 2022). It’s just that they aren’t getting those touches. Over-30 wide receivers and running backs had 3,229 total touches in 2021 and 2022 combined; they had 4,659 in 2003 alone.
For an even shorter explanation, we turn to Toby Keith:
“I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.”
What Does This Mean for 2023?
The Already Over-30 Group
There are plenty of over-30 players around the league. Even with these numbers clearly showing they are steadily getting worse as a group, there will be some in 2023 who have been good for a long time but will drop off. There were 33 running backs or wide receivers 30 or older who got at least one touch in 2022, from Raheem Mostert’s 212 to John Brown’s 1. Which ones should we care about for 2023, and which of those should we be scared of?
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams remained as good as ever in 2022 despite leaving Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. After a year with Derek Carr, he’ll be paired with Jimmy Garoppolo (probably? Maybe they’ll jump on a rookie) in 2023. I’m not concerned about Adams yet, and you shouldn’t be either.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett has been the most reliably underdrafted receiver in the league for a long time now. He’s beaten his ADP six years in a row, and considering he’s barely a WR3 by early ADP for 2023, he’s a contender to do it again. You can’t even really point to any single stat that says he’s due for a dropoff. It’s just that he turns 31 in September.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
Adam Thielen was the fourth-highest-scoring over-30 RB/WR last year, at 180.0 PPR points. He was also so thoroughly disappointing that his team traded for a tight end to take targets over him and then dumped him at the end of the year. He’s slated to be one of the Panthers’ top targets in 2023, but all I know is I’d be very wary of investing in him this year.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
There was briefly buzz that the Chargers might move on from Keenan Allen this offseason. That’s died down and he seems secure to stick around for at least another season. But given he turns 31 on the night of the first round of the draft, Mike Williams is around and only 28, and the Chargers are considered one of the most likely teams to add a receiver in the draft, don’t be surprised if the Allen decline has begun.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals (for now?)
DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t been traded, but most assume it’s coming. If he stays in Arizona, he’ll have Colt McCoy or a recovering Kyler Murray throwing him passes. If he gets traded, it’s going to be to a team that already has most of a receiver room in place. Either way, it’s hard to imagine he can average 10.7 targets a game in 2023 like he did in 2022 (or, if he stays in Arizona and does match that, it’s hard to imagine they are high-quality targets). His efficiency numbers actually have dipped (his 11.2 yards per reception last year were a career low; his 7.5 yards per targets were his second-lowest). I will be low man on Hopkins in 2023.
Other Over-30 Options from 2022
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, free agent
- Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
- Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
- Latavius Murray, RB, free agent
- Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
- Robert Woods, WR, Houston Texans
- Julio Jones, WR, free agent
- Jarvis Landry, WR, free agent
There’s not a player on that list I’d bet to improve on his 2022 fantasy point total, with the possible exception of Robert Woods. Even he, I’m not excited about. Tread super carefully.
The New 30-Year-Olds
I mentioned 33 RB/WRs age 30 or older got a touch last year; 32 players at age 29 did so, from Melvin Gordon’s 115 to C.J. Board’s 1. In other words, a lot of our 29-year-olds from 2022 are going to vanish like Keyser Soze this year, resurfacing on a “Remember Some Guys?” podcast in like 2028.
Here are the ones worth monitoring.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
The peak of the peak are the players we don’t expect to disappear at age 30. And that applies to Stefon Diggs, whose 484 targets over the last three years trails only Davante Adams’ 498. I’m not worried about Diggs hitting the wall this year.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans needed a game for the ages in Week 17 to make his full-season numbers more closely align with the rest of his career. His yards per target (8.0) were his lowest since 2017. His 6 touchdowns were his lowest since then as well. And now he’ll have Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask throwing to him instead of Tom Brady. Evans is great, but I’m officially nervous.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Since he was already 24 when he entered the league and didn’t become a big star until age 26 in 2019, it’s easy to forget, but Cooper Kupp does turn 30 in June. He’s had two of his last five seasons ended early to injury but has been an absolute superstar otherwise. The Rams being a tire fire and Matthew Stafford being a huge question mark at this point are bigger concerns to me than Kupp’s age, but it’s worth noting that he’s not likely to have the longevity of some of the other elite-of-the-elite receivers.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Would you rather be the best receiver in a bad offense or the No. 2 receiver in a good offense (that apparently now wants to be run-heavier)? That’s the question with Brandin Cooks this year. Either way, he seems like a player who has passed out of his “weekly starter” phase and into his “bye-week/injury fill-in” phase, though there’s a chance he proves me wrong on that.
Allen Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Yes, Allen Robinson is somehow younger than Cooper Kupp despite his body apparently being 86 years old. He is still talented, so a rebound wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever. That said, if there is a rebound, it’ll at least start on the waiver wire or fantasy benches, because nobody is going to start him.
The Running Backs
The list of 29-year-old running backs in 2022 was positively sad. Melvin Gordon’s career is almost certainly over. J.D. McKissic’s neck means his might be as well. Ameer Abdullah? Tevin Coleman? Mike Davis? Let’s just move on, I’m getting sad.
Other 29-Year-Old Options from 2022
- Mack Hollins, WR, Atlanta Falcons
- DeVante Parker, WR, New England Patriots
- Nelson Agholor, WR, Baltimore Ravens
- Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
