SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 14

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 13 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

A big week for offense in Week 13 as corydrellack took the Red Zone GPP down with just over 275 total points. It was the highest scoring week since Week 5 when the Red Zone winner needed over 300 points to take home the top prize. No stacking was necessary for Cory’s lineup, as he took the gift that was a last-minute 1.85x Gardner Minshew and included two players from both the Minnesota Vikings (Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson) and the Los Angeles Rams (Sony Michel, Cooper Kupp). His 25.8% average roster percentage was the chalkiest lineup of the season and the first time in 2021 when a winning average roster rate exceeded 25 percent.

The Gunslinger winner (HeppDailyGuru) needed 32 less points than the Red Zone winner to take down the smaller but higher-priced contest. They correctly paired Minshew with his tight end Dallas Goedert but did not need George Kittle’s monster performance to take down the field of 110 entries.

It was just the second time in 13 weeks that a non-RB was used in the flex of a Red Zone GPP winner.

Week 14 Preview

There are 11 games on the main slate with four of these taking place in the late window. It should be clear to all which direction most rosters will veer – with the Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup (53.5 Vegas total) being the only game on the slate projected for more than 50 combined points. 

The San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals game will be on game-stack radars as well. But we will have to track key injury news. As of Thursday, none of the following offensive players are practicing – Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel on the Niners, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins on the Bengals. Amongst them, Samuel is the least likely to play.

Injury news is a big part of our decision with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, who line up for a decent matchup against the New York Giants. Running back Austin Ekeler (ankle) is banged up and should play. Both top wideouts (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams) are on the reserve/COVID-19 list, with Williams more likely to suit up on Sunday than Allen since Williams did not actually test positive (just a close contact to Allen). The Giants are banged up all-around with RB Saquon Barkley questionable and the same for their primary trio of wideouts (Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, with Kadarius Toney likely out). Barkley will likely play and could end up seeing a heavy workload.

The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team game may be a fun one to stack if we’re able to identify the smash plays. Dallas wideouts Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup as well as WFT’s top offensive players Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, are all reasonably multiplied in the 1.25x to 1.5x range.

Quarterbacks

• Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
• Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

Many will be gravitating toward Cam Newton with his 40% scoring bonus despite a sub-10 point effort in his latest outing. The Atlanta Falcons’ defense is a panacea for opposing signal-callers, as they allow the second-most SuperDraft base points per game (22.2) to the position. Unless Carolina’s running backs ruin the party, it’s very likely Newton is involved in at least two or three scores as a passer or runner. He’s a solid cash play that we can lean on this week. Taysom Hill’s matchup is a strong one as well. Alvin Kamara is expected to return to action, but we can still count on Hill to scramble quite a few times. Hill should see at least some red-zone rushing opportunities against the league’s worst run defense and could beat their defense through the air as well. There’s less margin for error than Newton given the lower multiplier, but Hill could easily outscore him. Expect Cam to be much more popular though.

The 1x Crew

• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
• Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Mahomes is in the midst of his most inconsistent season ever and simply can’t be relied on as a cash play, especially with no scoring bonus. He has scored 15 or less DK base points in four of his last five games, but that one exception was an offensive explosion against these Raiders (406 PaYd, 5 PaTD, 38.24 FP) back in mid-November. It’s difficult for us to expect similar results, but 300 yards and three passing scores is well within reasonable expectation. He threw for at least 340 and two pass TDs in both of his games against the Raiders last season.

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Josh Allen has failed to live up to his 2020 success but gets back on the right side of things with this projected high-scoring tilt with the offensively-dangerous Bucs. Allen hasn’t walked in a touchdown himself since Halloween and has just three rushing scores this season. The Bucs’ defense ranks seventh in DVOA pass defense, but a creative game plan and some blow-for-blow action could help Allen reach his 30+ point ceiling. On the flip side, Tom Brady faces Buffalo’s number-one ranked DVOA pass defense but one that is now without their best corner, Tre’Davious White. Brady will require 300+ passing yards and multiple scores to land on the optimal lineup. The matchup isn’t ideal, but 2021’s top quarterback is certainly capable of it. He leads the position in completions per game (28.9), passing yards per game (314.25) and passing touchdowns (34).

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) is in a great spot against a WFT defense that allows the most SuperDraft points per game to quarterbacks (24.3). With Tony Pollard banged up and Ezekiel Elliott not at full strength, Prescott’s arm should be busy on Sunday. Teddy Bridgewater (Denver Broncos) is a below-average quarterback, but the matchup with the Lions and 50% scoring bonus makes him a viable option this weekend. Same with Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who may just get back to cooking against Houston’s below-average defense. 

Favorite Plays: Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Taysom Hill, Tom Brady
Low % Gut Play: Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

With Kenyan Drake out for the season, Josh Jacobs was heavily relied upon in Week 13, as he played nearly 85% of offensive snaps and caught a career-high nine balls. No Drake bodes well for Jacobs’ inclusion in a catch-up game plan should the Chiefs take an early lead against the Raiders, as Vegas expects. Jacobs has struck paydirt in consecutive games and has a high floor for cash games this week, especially with the 40% scoring bonus.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler has been an absolute workhorse this season as fantasy’s number-two running back in half-point per reception formats, averaging nearly 20 FP per game. Though the Giants allow the eighth-most SuperDraft points per game to running backs (23), they are dead last in DVOA run defense. Without Mike Williams and possibly Keenan Allen, Ekeler is expected to be an absolute target hog in this matchup.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara’s knee injury has kept him on the shelf since Week 9, but he is expected to return this week to the best matchup known to man. The Jets serve up the most SD points per game to running backs (33.2) by a wide margin over the next worst (Seahawks – 27.6). The scariest stat of all is that the Jets have allowed 90 red-zone touches to opposing backs with the next-worst team being the Chargers (72). For context, the league average is 49 and the Denver Broncos have allowed the least (30). Only Taysom Hill stands in his way to a monster day.

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High-Multiplier Split Backfields

• Tennessee Titans: D’Onta Foreman (1.8x), Dontrell Hilliard (2x)
• Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard (1.5x), Ameer Abdullah (1.9x)

In a perfect world, we would have a clear picture of which of these backs to utilize in our lineups. The fact of the matter is, we won’t have clarity ahead of Sunday and really only have three options: take a stand, sprinkle all of them into lineups or avoid entirely. I’m more interested in Foreman and Hilliard, as the Titans are nine-point home favorites and are coming off a bye week. The Panthers are off a bye as well, but that backfield seems murkier to me, especially with TD-vulture Cam Newton in the picture. Last we saw Foreman and Hilliard, they had ripped off monster runs en route to 100+ rushing yards apiece. Unless we believe the Jaguars take a lead and hold it, this one sets up better for early-down bruiser Foreman, who has 30 pounds of bulk on his quicker counterpart. The duo split carries evenly in that Week 12 tilt, but Foreman out-carried Hilliard 19 to 12. I’ll mix both in lineups this weekend but with a heavier lean on the lower-multiplier Foreman. 

Favorite Plays: Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette
Low % Gut Play: D’Onta Foreman

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Though Tee Higgins (ankle) has been red-hot the last couple weeks and will likely suit up on Sunday, it feels like a week where the pendulum will swing back in the way of the stud rookie wideout. Ja’Marr Chase will frequently run routes against a washed-up Josh Norman. Per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB article, Norman is allowing 13.1 yards-per-reception and a 70% catch rate. So long as QB Joe Burrow trends positively in the remaining practice sessions this week, I feel confident about Chase’s chance to be the slate’s highest-scoring receiver.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs

A fairly straightforward option for most this week, whether you pair him with Patrick Mahomes or play him solo. Tyreek Hill smashed the Raiders and scored a couple of touchdowns against them a month ago. He hasn’t hit the 100-yard receiving bonus since Week 4 but has been a target hog, seeing at least 10 in eight of his last nine games. It’s a tough call between him and Travis Kelce, but if building multiple entries, you should have at least some exposure to the double-stack (Mahomes + Hill + Kelce).

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Finally, a matchup Teddy Bridgewater and this pass offense can take advantage of. The Lions roster a trio of wonky and inexperienced corners (Amani Oruwariye, Will Harris, Jerry Jacobs), all of whom grade out poorly in coverage this year. Jerry Jeudy spends most of his time this season (79%) in the slot, and that’s where he’ll see Harris, who is the weakest of the trio. It’s a nice matchup for him to get back on the fantasy map, and at a very generous 45% bonus.

Dallas Cowboys’ Wide Receivers

These guys feel like the key to the slate, but with all three of them healthy, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly which one (if any) will be the smash play. CeeDee Lamb has the highest weekly floor and is safest in cash. Michael Gallup has the best multiplier and is running a majority of routes from the right side, where he will battle frequently with the weakest of Washington’s corner trio, William Jackson III.

Laquon Treadwell, Jacksonville Jaguars

Laquon Treadwell’s usage and rapport with Trevor Lawrence has been trending in a positive direction. Since it seems that the Jags want to give anyone other than Laviska Shenault or Marvin Jones Jr. opportunities to succeed (see Jamal Agnew), why not the new guy who led all Jacksonville wideouts last week in offensive snaps, routes run and receiving yards? The Titans allow the most SD points to wideouts this season (36.3), and if Treadwell can find his way into the end zone, we may find ourselves laughing all the way to the SuperDraft bank at Laquon’s 2x multiplier.

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Others to Consider (GPP)

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

I’m intrigued in pairing Robby Anderson with Cam Newton in tournaments given his speed, deep-play ability and the fact that he’ll face off quite frequently with porous perimeter corner, Fabian Moreau. If we think Atlanta can keep up in this game, perhaps we consider the double stack and include their number-one wideout, DJ Moore.

Tre’Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints

The Jets should get steamrolled, but we’re still not certain if Alvin Kamara will get the full-fledged workhorse role, especially if the Saints get off to an early lead. Tre’Quan Smith has been the most consistent Saints wideout in terms of routes, targets and yards over the last couple months, and fellow wideout Deonte Harris is suspended for three games. He’s worth a shot in GPPs at his multiplier.

Favorite Plays: Ja’Marr Chase, Jerry Jeudy, Tyreek Hill, Laquon Treadwell, Mike Williams (if Allen is out)
Low % Gut Play: Robby Anderson

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Smash-and-grab time for a guy who has been crushing Raiders defenses for quite some time. A few weeks ago, Travis Kelce posted an 8-119-0 (10 targets) against them. Last season was much the same with 10-8-127-1 and 12-8-108-1. The previous season when the Raiders called Oakland their home, he averaged 6-99-0.5 against them. There’s no bonus for any fantasy points this week, but he may not need it to be the slate’s highest scorer. Expect the Chiefs to come out of the bye week swinging, with Patrick Mahomes peppering Kelce and Tyreek Hill incessantly. 

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rob Gronkowski continues to smash, as he’s now seen at least eight targets in the three games since his return and is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Falcons. We all know about the hometown narrative since he’s from Buffalo, and he’s had some of his best stat lines against them. Granted, the hometown narrative doesn’t exactly apply since they’ll be playing in Florida. Nevertheless, I’m open to two-TE builds on some of my rosters because of the high upside at the position this week – both on the low- and high-multiplier ends.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

His multiplier has moved up to a point where he will be a chalky play regardless of his recent slogs. He hasn’t exceeded 10 SD points in his last six games and hasn’t found the end zone in seven. Last time the Falcons faced the Panthers, veteran CB Stephon Gilmore was instrumental in shutting Kyle Pitts down and keeping him to just 13 yards on two receptions. Something’s got to give for the talented young star, as he should be game-planned as the focal point of Matt Ryan’s reads. He’s hard to trust in cash at the multiplier, but someone I’ll be heavily invested in for the Red Zone GPP for his bounce-back performance.

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Evan Engram, New York Giants

Evan Engram and his 70% scoring bonus is in the mix for me this week for a couple of reasons: the Giants literally have no one on offense besides him and Saquon Barkley, and the Chargers have been a bottom-five defense to the tight end position this season. Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) will see roster rates over 15% because this is everyone’s favorite game on the slate, as most will include him in Josh Allen stacks. I’m fine with Knox but believe Engram is a bit sneakier of a play.

Favorite Plays: Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Pitts, (Dawson Knox & Evan Engram: high multipliers)
Super Low % Gut Play: Mark Andrews

Favorite Game Stacks

Raiders/Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes + Tyreek Hill + Travis Kelce + 1 of Josh Jacobs or Hunter Renfrow

Cowboys/Washington

Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb + 1 of Michael Gallup or Amari Cooper + Terry McLaurin

Bills/Buccaneers

Tom Brady + Leonard Fournette + Rob Gronkowski + Stefon Diggs + Dawson Knox

Seahawks/Texans

Russell Wilson + 1 of DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett + Brandin Cooks

Panthers/Falcons

Cam Newton + DJ Moore + Robby Anderson + 1 of Kyle Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson

Favorite Secondary Correlations

1. Travis Kelce (KC) + Josh Jacobs (LV)
2. Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) + George Kittle (SF)
3. Tyreek Hill (KC) + Josh Jacobs (LV)
4. D’Onta Foreman (TEN) + Laquon Treadwell (JAX)
5. Austin Ekeler (LAC) + Mike Williams (LAC)
6. Javonte Williams (DEN) + Jerry Jeudy (DEN)
7. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) + Terry McLaurin (WAS)
8. Rob Gronkowski (TB) + Dawson Knox (BUF)
9. Austin Ekeler (LAC) + Saquon Barkley (NYG)
10. DJ Moore (CAR) + Kyle Pitts (ATL)