Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Similar to what has been provided the last six weeks, below are my top three plays that I will be anchoring my SuperDraft DFS lineups around. While there were typically five plays provided, I will be providing three plays per week while adding an “others to consider” section full of the players who round out the vast majority of my player pool.
This gives you the ability to lock in the key three and fill in around it. Below are my top three options for Week 9.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (@ KC)
Score multiplier: 1.85x
This play isn’t for the faint of heart, but when a starting quarterback with upside both through the air and on the ground gets priced at 1.85x, it’s hard to ignore.
Sunday will mark Jordan Love’s first career start and it comes against one of the most generous secondaries in football, outlined in my Thursday-Monday NFL DFS article:
“Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs rank seventh-worst in passing yards allowed and fourth-worst in adjusted completion rate allowed (78.7%) while they’ve allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt (8.42) with their 15 passing touchdowns allowed being the fourth-highest mark in football.”
With Davante Adams back in the fold, Love has the weapons and the matchup to succeed. If he has a ceiling outing, he could be the GPP-winning quarterback you’re looking for.
Others to consider: Josh Allen (1x), Patrick Mahomes (1.1x), Lamar Jackson (1.15x), Tua Tagovailoa (1.5x)
Devontae Booker, RB, New York Giants (vs. LV)
Score multiplier: 1.5x
Rostering a Giants’ player, let alone a running back that isn’t Saquon Barkley, is always a rather daunting task, but Devontae Booker has been a volume hog in Barkley’s absence, seeing a snap share of 88%-72%-82%-93% over the last four weeks. Over the course of those four games, he’s logged 19, 16, 16 and 20 touches while finding the end zone three times. His involvement in the receiving game solidifies his role as an every-down player and rather immune to a gamescript, but a matchup with the Raiders also instills confidence.
On the season, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt (4.57) while ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards-after-contact allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, and total rushing yards allowed. With a 1.5x multiplier, Booker has everything you want out of your running back; elite volume, passing game involvement, and a favorable matchup. Fire him up with confidence.
Others to consider: Alvin Kamara (1x), Aaron Jones (1.05x), Ezekiel Elliott (1.15x), Elijah Mitchell (1.4x), Cordarrelle Patterson (1.45x), Chuba Hubbard (1.55x) — if Christian McCaffrey is ruled OUT
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Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans (@ MIA)
Score multiplier: 1.4x
Suppressed by poor quarterback play this season, Brandin Cooks has been one of the best game-breakers without a ton of game-breaking opportunities. On the season, he leads the entire NFL in air yard share (45%) while being one of only four players with a target share north of 30% (30.12%).
Welcoming back Tyrod Taylor at quarterback this week should only heighten his ceiling, as his volume is not expected to go anywhere. In the first two games of the season (where Taylor played roughly a game and a half), Cooks logged 21 total targets, resulting in 14 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown. His upside is astronomical and his matchup with the Dolphins is exploitable. 1.4x is one of the best values on the slate.
Others to consider: Tyreek Hill (1x), Davante Adams (1x), Marquise Brown (1.35x), Jarvis Landry (1.45x), Jaylen Waddle (1.5x), Emmanuel Sanders (1.6x), Kadarius Toney (1.75x)
