Stock Watch: Fantasy Football ADP Movement (8/25)

Welcome to the seventh edition of Stock Watch, where I take a look at the latest fantasy football ADP movement. The goal here is to identify which players that have rising and falling ADPs in fantasy football as we inch closer to the NFL season. I’m looking at NFFC high-stakes drafts that have taken place over the past two weeks.

We are in the middle of Fantasy Football draft season with Week 3 of the preseason just a couple of days away. This is where I believe we’ll see the biggest movement, as we actually have football games to break down. Below you’ll see a list of players who have seen their draft stock in NFFC leagues rise and fall over the past two weeks.

Last week we talked about the rise of Jerry Jeudy, Donovan Peoples-Jones and the decline in Myles Gaskin and David Johnson’s fantasy stock. The week before, I touched on the steady climb of Trey Lance, Tua Tagovailoa and Damien Williams as well as the fall of Carson Wentz. Before that, we hit on the movement of players such as Michael Thomas and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers QB has settled in as QB7 with an ADP of 68 over the last two weeks. Thomas (WR32) has an ADP of 76 with a min of 38 and a max of 135. He was taken as the 36th wideout in Tuesday’s Superflex draft in Flex Leagues.

Four weeks ago, the biggest movers were Darrell Henderson, Cole Beasley and Jalen Hurts. Henderson peaked as high as RB21 (ADP 38) but he’ll be on the move again but in the other direction as the Rams added Sony Michel to the backfield. Make sure you check out our latest rankings to see the movement of Henderson, Michel, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Actually, let’s start with this trade and the potential ADP movement.

ADP movement in fantasy football – Risers

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB – New England Patriots (RB 63-58 / ADP 215-180)

Stevenson was already on the rise thanks to a league-high four touchdowns and 193 rushing yards in two preseason games. A 35-pick movement will take the cake as the biggest mover over the past two weeks and he’ll continue to rise since he has a clearer path to touches after the Patriots traded Sony Michel to the Rams on Wednesday. I have him exactly at RB50 since the trade and Damien Harris has moved to RB25. As you see here, I’m not the lowest or the highest on Stevenson or Harris. 

Harris’ ADP has stayed steady throughout the past couple of months (RB32, 84), but he should creep inside the top 30 and potentially top 25 at RB. The truth is, Harris won’t be involved in the passing game and it’s still a crowded backfield with James White, J.J. Taylor and an emerging Stevenson. The discount on Stevenson is gone, but he’s still a strong target as Derek Brown points out here. James White will also remain a solid late-round target in PPR formats like NFFC (RB52, 159). 

Jim Sannes joined me today to break down the Michel trade and James Robinson’s movement with Travis Etienne expected to miss most of the season. 

Rondale Moore, WR – Arizona Cardinals (WR 62-57 / ADP 161-141) 

Moore caught three more passes in Week 2 to give him six catches on nine targets to go along with three carries. Moore operated out of the slot again, which was expected to be Kirk’s role this season. A.J. Green suited up but it remains to be seen how much he has to offer. 

Don’t expect Moore to be a big yardage guy as he’ll come with a low aDOT, but he’s explosive after the catch and the Cardinals have made a point in getting him the ball. We’re likely talking about Moore as Kyler Murray’s second favorite target at some point in 2021. Kirk’s stock has dropped while Moore’s has climbed and Kirk may be the odd man out if Green shows us anything at all.

Other risers: Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, Terrace Marshall, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Palmer

ADP movement in fantasy football – Fallers

Trevor Lawrence, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars (QB 14-16 / ADP 117-127)

Fellow rookie quarterbacks Trey Lance and Justin Fields have leapfrogged this year’s number one overall pick in the last two weeks. I think it makes perfect sense, but of course, I’m biased because I’ve had both ranked ahead of Lawrence for weeks now, despite the likelihood of TL playing more football games than both Fields and Lance this season. That will be the case for Fields as Andy Dalton will start Week 1 for the Bears.

I truly believe Lawrence has the best outlook from the 2021 class and he has three appealing options in the passing game, but his offensive line has looked awful throughout the preseason. Unfortunately, for the Clemson product and new head coach Urban Meyer, it’s a trend that likely continues as we have them ranked 25th in our offensive line rankings. 

The Jags will be playing from behind quite a bit this season so the passing volume is certainly appealing, but I’d consider the rookies over Lawrence due to the rushing upside and they’re both in better situations. I’d consider Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins over Lawrence as well as they’re going two rounds later.

Also, Lawrence officially being named Week 1 starter will not move the needle in NFFC leagues as we already knew this. The shaky o-line play against the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 2 will only hurt his stock. 

Ja’Marr Chase, WR – Cincinnati Bengals (WR 23-25 / ADP 55-60)

We only have about four days of draft data to look at since Ja’Marr Chase dropped three more passes in a game over the weekend. He followed that up with two end zone drops in Sunday’s practice, one of which resulted in an interception. The drops have been a constant theme throughout Chase’s first NFL camp but it’s important to keep in mind he hasn’t played competitive football in 18 months. That didn’t seem to slow down the fantasy community from freaking out, but Emory Hunt joined me on Monday to remind everyone about Chase’s talents.

Perhaps the fantasy community overlooked the potential rust from Chase when the market set him at WR20 after the NFL Draft. Potentially now many are realizing the long layoff could be a trend that continues for the first few weeks of the season. Also, the realization that Joe Burrow has two very strong weapons in the passing game in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to go along with his former teammate in Chase. By the way, Higgins has passed Chase over the past two weeks in NFFC drafts.

Let’s also keep in mind Burrow hasn’t had any action in the preseason and he’s not expected to, so it’s unfair to put all of the drops on Chase. The truth is, the rookie will be absolutely fine as a wideout in this league. He never struggled with drops before and I don’t expect it to be an issue this season. I have Jerry Jeudy and Chase Claypool over him but I wouldn’t let him slip outside the top 30 at the position. 

Other fallers: Justin Herbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Taysom Hill,  D’Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Myles Gaskin, David Johnson (RB37-44), Latavius Murray, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, D.J. Chark, Jalen Reagor, Cole Beasley, Nelson Agholor, Parris Campbell, Adam Trautman