Stock Watch: Fantasy Football ADP Movement (8/18)


Welcome to the sixth edition of Stock Watch, where I take a look at the latest fantasy football ADP movement. The goal here is to identify which players have rising and falling ADPs in fantasy football as we inch closer to the NFL season. I’m looking at NFFC high-stakes drafts that have taken place over the past two weeks.

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We really are in the middle of Fantasy Football draft season with Week 2 of the preseason just hours away. This is where I believe we’ll see the biggest movement, as we actually have football games to break down. Below you’ll see a list of players who have seen their draft stock in NFFC leagues rise and fall over the past two weeks.

Last week I touched on the steady climb of Trey Lance, Tua Tagovailoa and Damien Williams as well as the fall of Carson Wentz. The week before we hit on the movement of players such as Michael Thomas and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers QB has settled in as QB7 with an ADP of 68 over the last two weeks. Thomas (WR32) has an ADP of 76 with a min of 36 and a max of 137. He was taken as the 36th wideout in Tuesday’s Superflex draft in Flex Leagues.

Three weeks ago, the biggest movers were Darrell Henderson, Cole Beasley and Jalen Hurts. Henderson remains at RB22 (ADP 50) with a minimum pick of 29 over the last two weeks compared to 109 in the first two weeks of July before Cam Akers went down. Xavier Jones has moved to RB55 (168).

ADP movement in fantasy football – Risers 

Jerry Jeudy, WR – Denver Broncos (WR 34-28 / ADP 78-68)

Jeudy is your biggest riser of the week, as he’s moved from WR34 to WR28. He leapfrogged Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Robby Anderson, D.J. Chark and teammate Courtland Sutton. It’s possible it has something to do with Sutton as he works his way back from a serious knee injury and videos surfaced a couple of weeks ago where he was struggling to run routes. I think overall, it’s just the upside that Jeudy brings to the table. The rookie was sixth in air yards (1,541) and he finished third in yards per catch (16.5) among wideouts with 80 targets. Unfortunately, he finished 30th in yards (856) and his 7.6 yards per target was the 10th fewest among wideouts with 80 targets. His 10 drops (third-most) contributed to the low yardage total, as did some poor QB play, to go along with a high aDOT (13.64) last season. He played out of the slot in the first preseason game, which I believe is a much better role for him, as he’s explosive after the catch and his route running is unreal. He should be able to reel in more of his targets this way, no matter the QB in Denver.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR – Cleveland Browns (WR 145-83 / ADP 289-237)

OK, I Iied. Donovan Peoples-Jones is your biggest riser, as he’s gone from pretty much an undrafted wideout to a late-round flier and a good one at that. Believe me, this has everything to do with his Week 1 preseason performance. DPJ played 15 snaps with the first-team offense and he reeled in three of his five targets for 26 yards. He’ll battle with Rashard Higgins for the No. 3 job, and I think he’ll win it. We may only be talking about him in DFS or in best ball formats, but if something happens to OBJ again, Peoples-Jones would become pretty interesting. Marquez Callaway also had a big Week 1 game and his draft stock also increased. His path to playing time and targets is greater than Peoples-Jones, as it’s a far less crowded wide receiver room in New Orleans.

Rashaad Penny, RB – Seattle Seahawks  (RB 54-49 / ADP 163-146)

We’re doing it again with Rashaad Penny, aren’t we? The fantasy community just can’t get enough of Penny and I have no idea why. The former first-round pick in 2018 has 161 rushing attempts and 17 catches in 27 career games. Maybe this is why Chris Carson is always disrespected in fantasy drafts because of the love people seem to have for Penny. I get he’s a first-round pick with upside, but it just seems like a wasted pick, even in the 12th round. There are plenty of other pass-catching backs in this range who can provide more for owners such as J.D. McKissic, Phillip Lindsay, James White, Damien Williams and Giovani Bernard. Even Chuba Hubbard has more upside than Penny, who has dealt with numerous injuries since entering the league. Penny wouldn’t even be a lock to start if Carson went down, as the Seahawks have DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer and Alex Collins on the roster. Just stop it with Penny! Here in Canada, we ditched the Penny years ago, you should too. 

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Other risers: Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Derek Carr, Aaron Jones, Michael Carter, A.J. Dillon, Damien Williams, Xavier Jones, Boston Scott, Malcolm Brown, Qadree Ollison, Mike Williams, Michael Gallup, Antonio Brown, Sterling Shepard, Terrace Marshall, Marquez Callaway, Bryan Edwards, Gerald Everett

ADP movement in fantasy football – Fallers

Myles Gaskin, RB – Miami Dolphins (RB 22-25 / ADP 54-60)

Gaskin has fallen a few spots, and I can only imagine he’ll fall even more as we’re only a handful of days away from him playing behind Malcolm Brown. Gaskin played seven snaps with the starters and was reduced to pretty much a third-down role in Miami’s first preseason game. Brown played 16 snaps with the first-team offense, and he carried the ball nine times. He only racked up eight yards, but his offensive line didn’t do him any favors (-7 yards before contact). First-down carries and red-zone touches are extremely valuable in fantasy football, but I don’t think we should overreact. Gaskin wasn’t named the starter last season, and it didn’t take him long to overtake Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. The same can be said for Brown, who opened up as the starting running back in Los Angeles only to lose his gig.  RB25 is a fair price to pay for Gaskin in a PPR format, as he’ll still be involved through the air regardless if he starts in Week 1. We’ll likely see a decline in targets, though, with the addition of Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, so having him as your FLEX or RB3 is ideal. That said, we already know he has RB2 upside. 

David Johnson, RB – Houston Texans (RB 37-40 / ADP 100-109)

This is a no-brainer, as the Houston Texans will not only be awful in 2021, they also brought in Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay this offseason. It was Lindsay who took first- and second-team reps in Houston’s first game, and it’s Ingram who’s listed as the team’s starting running back on their depth chart. Yes, I’m going there – Houston, we have a problem. It’s best to avoid this backfield altogether, but if you’re taking a shot on someone it would be Lindsay, as he’s 50 picks cheaper on average.

Other fallers: Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Kenneth Gainwell, Devontae Booker, Tarik Cohen, Javian Hawkins, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, D.J. Chark, DeVonta Smith, Will Fuller, Tre’Quan Smith, Christian Kirk, Parris Campbell, Darius Slayton

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