Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022 NFL offseason resembled that of a Madden franchise. We saw trade after trade after trade, unlike anything we’ve ever seen from a football offseason. And so many of these moves featured some of the top players in all of fantasy football.
Today, we’re taking a look at fallout of the trades. So you got traded? What’s it mean for your fantasy football value in 2022?
Let’s take a look.
Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders
After catching passes from Aaron Rodgers for the first eight seasons of his career, Davante Adams will now reunite with former college quarterback Derek Carr in Las Vegas. Rodgers and Adams were the premiere quarterback/receiver duo in the NFL for years, as Green Bay’s entire passing game went through the All-Pro wideout. He has seen a target share north of 30% in each of his past four seasons and over the last two seasons, Adams has seen a whopping 256 first-read targets. In fact, in 2021, Adams was targeted 169 times. However, he was the first read for Rodgers on an insane 150 of those targets, which is nearly 90% of the targets.
It’ll be interesting to see the type of volume he sees with the Raiders. He clearly has a track record with Carr, but there is no chance the rapport is the same as it was with Rodgers. Adams and Rodgers are both arguably the two best players in football at their respective positions and so much of their connection had to do with timing and trust. And while I’d project Adams to lead this team in targets right away, the discrepancy won’t be nearly as large as it has been in Green Bay. The Raiders have Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow in the passing game, who both would have easily been the second-best pass-catchers on the Packers last year. Adams saw 30% of the targets last year, and the next closest player in targets for the Packers was a running back in Aaron Jones (65). At 29 years old, Adams is still perhaps the best receiver in the game with the ability to separate against anyone, especially off the line. But he might be in line for his lowest target share since 2017, which is enough to firmly place Cooper Kupp as the WR1 in fantasy heading into the season.
Fantasy stock: Slightly down
Tyreek Hill traded to the Miami Dolphins
In a shocking turn of events, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tyreek Hill could not agree on a long-term deal, leading to the Pro Bowl wideout moving to the AFC East. Hill now joins Jaylen Waddle and the Dolphins to form possibly the fastest offense in all of football, though things will obviously be a bit different this season. Hill can obviously make plays in any offense but there is no denying that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a downgrade. Mahomes and Hill formed the best deep ball connection in all of football over the last few seasons, as he has totaled nearly 30 touchdown receptions of 20-plus yards over the past five seasons. The huge play was never something Hill depended on for fantasy, but it was obviously a massive part of his game. However, that changed in 2021, as opposing defenses ran a ton of two-high safety looks against the Chiefs offense. In fact, during the first half of the season, Kansas City faced that style of defense on around 80% of their passing plays. This led to less massive plays from Hill but more targets, as he set a career-high in that department with 159. Now it seems unlikely he comes close to that number in Miami, but Hill showed that even when the chunk plays fall off, he can still thrive, which takes us to his fit with the Dolphins.
Yes, Tagovailoa is not Mahomes. But I’m not sure he has to be in this offense. New head coach Mike McDaniel comes from San Francisco where after-the-catch ability was a huge part of the offense. So I expect to see plenty of short passes to Hill and Waddle, putting both receivers in position to make plays with the ball in their hands. As for the deep ball, I think Tagovailoa’s ability in that department remains to be seen. Sure, Tagovailoa led all qualified passers in adjusted completion rate on deep passes last year (55.8%). However, just 6.7% of his pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more down the field, one of the three lowest rates in football. So I’m not sure we truly know what Tagovailoa brings to the table when it comes to deep passing. We do have a decent sample size of Hill playing without Mahomes, however. In 2017, Alex Smith was the Chiefs quarterback — during that season, Hill hauled in 75 balls for nearly 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. And per the FTN Splits Tool, Hill has played in 18 games without Mahomes since 2017. During that span, he is averaging 5.2 receptions, 82.5 yards and nearly 17 PPR fantasy points per game.
Between the new offense and having more talent around him, Hill is no longer a top-five fantasy wide receiver for me. But if Tagovailoa can take that step forward in year three, the upside is clearly still there.
Fantasy stock: Down
Russell Wilson to Denver; Noah Fant to Seattle
I covered the Russell Wilson aspect when the trade happened, but it’ll be interesting to see if Denver lets him cook, especially with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett so ecstatic to have him under center. In 2021, Denver ranked 23rd in the NFL in passing rate (56.08%), but I expect that number to climb up toward at least league average. The fit with these Denver pass-catchers is great, as he has Courtland Sutton, who could develop quite the rapport with Wilson, especially on deep passes. Over his last two fully healthy seasons (2019 and 2020), 14.3% of Wilson’s pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, while he’s been among the league-leaders in end zone throws. Meanwhile, using FTN Fantasy’s Passing Direction stats, you will find that 13.4% of Wilsons’ pass attempts last year were to the deep left part of the field, the highest rate among all qualified quarterbacks. Meanwhile, 14.3% of Sutton’s targets last year came from that area of the field, which ranked 10th in football. Wilson could easily return to being a top-five fantasy quarterback.
As for Noah Fant, I am far less excited. He goes from a crowded, low-volume passing offense in Denver to… a crowded, low-volume passing offense in Seattle. Oh, and Drew Lock is still likely to be his quarterback. Fant is clearly an immensely talented player, but with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still there, he projects as, at best, the third option in a Seahawks offense that had no problem establishing the run with Russell Wilson under center, so imagine how much they will run the football with him gone.
Fantasy stock: Wilson up, Fant down
Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper head to Cleveland
The Browns have had a busy offseason, bringing in a new quarterback and wide receiver. We’ll start with Deshaun Watson, who missed the entire 2021 campaign. When we last saw him in 2020, Watson was, per usual, a fantastic fantasy option. He threw for over 4,800 yards and 33 touchdowns, adding 444 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Watson finished as the QB6 in fantasy that year and elevated the play of both Will Fuller — who enjoyed a career year — and veteran Brandin Cooks. During his time with the Texans, Watson played behind some pretty poor offensive lines. In fact, Watson was under pressure on 36%, 38.4% and 44.9% of his dropbacks over his final three years in Houston, numbers that ranked 13th, seventh and first in football during that stretch. And despite playing under so much duress, Watson still ranked second (8.9), seventh (8.9) and 12th (8.5) in intended air yards per attempt during those three seasons. Now he is set to play behind one of the league’s five best offensive lines in Cleveland. In 2020, Cleveland quarterbacks were hit on just 5.10% of their dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Watson could have a field day behind this offensive line, and while Cleveland has been a run-first offense led by Nick Chubb, we could see Kevin Stefanski open things up now that he has a truly elite signal caller. If Watson doesn’t miss any games this season, a top-five fantasy finish isn’t only a reasonable expectation, but a likely one.
That’s especially true if Watson’s new wide receiver is productive. Amari Cooper was dealt to Cleveland this offseason — after an up-and-down final season in Dallas, the veteran is the clear top target for the Browns. Playing alongside CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup last season, Cooper posted the lowest target share of his career. Heading into his first season with Cleveland, I’d expect at least a 25% target share for Cooper. Jarvis Landry is no longer in town (though he could return), so the current No. 2 wideout on the roster is Donovan Peoples-Jones. Cooper has been much better over the last four seasons when playing indoors, averaging about 17 more receiving yards and three more PPR points per game but as the top wideout in a Watson-led offense, he has legitimate top-12 upside. Again, while having different skillsets, we saw Will Fuller averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game (eighth), while enjoying a career season (53-879-8 in 11 games).
Fantasy stock: Up for both
Carson Wentz to Washington, Matt Ryan to Indianapolis
These quarterback moves impact the wide receivers and tight ends more than the signal callers themselves. With how deep the position is, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan both shouldn’t be too high on your radar in your traditional one-quarterback league.
Wentz joins a Washington team that has a burgeoning star receiver in Terry McLaurin. Despite Wentz’ end-of-season numbers in 2021, he really didn’t play that well. He somehow only threw seven interceptions, but Wentz was charged with 27 interception-worthy passes. He threw a ton of contested passes. That isn’t anything new for McLaurin, who led all wide receivers in contested targets a season ago with 47. Playing alongside Jonathan Taylor last season, Wentz failed to see a ton of volume, averaging 30.4 pass attempts per game. Maybe that number climbs a little bit in Washington, but he won’t be drafted in fantasy leagues outside of superflex formats.
The same can be said for Ryan, who goes from an Atlanta offense that only had one really good pass-catcher to an Indianapolis offense that only has one really good pass-catcher. Ryan averaged 33 pass attempts per game but offered no ceiling, averaging just 0.39 fantasy points per dropback, 28th among all quarterbacks this past season. In the same Colts offense a season ago, Wentz averaged 0.47 fantasy points per dropback (18th), but he also had extreme interception luck, while also adding over 200 rushing yards and a rushing score.
Fantasy stock: Wentz slightly down, Ryan slightly up, neither relevant
Robert Woods traded to the Tennessee Titans
Robert Woods is one of my favorite receivers in all of football. And year after year, the veteran remains one of the most underrated players at his position. After a bit of a slow start last season, Woods got going a bit, ultimately ranking as a top-12 fantasy wideout during the first half. However, an ACL tear in practice ended his season early, and the Rams decided to trade him to the Titans in the offseason after signing Allen Robinson in free agency. Now in a run-first offense alongside Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, it is fair to wonder how much of a ceiling Woods has, especially in this new system. A huge part of his game during his time in Los Angeles was pre-snap motion and getting occasional carries. In fact, since 2018, Woods is averaging around 20 carries per year. I really don’t think he has the same role with the Titans, especially coming off a serious injury. As much as it pains me to say it, Woods is nothing more than a WR4 in fantasy.
Fantasy stock: Down
