NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
Well then. There have obviously been rumors surrounding a potential Russell Wilson trade for some time, but now it is official (pending physicals). Wilson will join the Denver Broncos, with Drew Lock, Noah Fant and a lot more heading to Seattle. In fantasy football, this is obviously a massive boost for Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Javonte Williams, as Wilson remains one of the best passers in the game.
I wonder if the Broncos finally open up their offense now that they have a legitimate quarterback. Last season, Denver sported a 56.08% passing rate, which ranked 23rd in the NFL. The lack of volume crushed the target upside of the pass-catchers when everyone was healthy, especially Sutton, who averaged just 3.8 targets and 19.1 receiving yards in the 10 contests he played alongside Jeudy. But if the passing volume goes up under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett and offensive coordinator Justin Outten, Sutton could return to WR2 status, especially with an upgrade at quarterback. Sutton also projects to be the deep target in this offense, and we know Wilson has been one of the league’s premiere deep ball passers. Over his last two fully healthy seasons (2019, 2020), 14.3% of Wilson’s pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, while he’s been among the league-leaders in end zone throws. The move also helps sophomore running back Javonte Williams, as Denver will see more scoring opportunities now.
An under-the-radar aspect of this trade is the fact that Fant is now in Seattle, leaving Albert Okwuegbunam as the starting tight end in Denver. He played in one game with Fant out last year and while the production wasn’t amazing (4-25 on 5 targets), Okwuegbunam logged 81% of the snaps in that game. And also consider the Broncos only attempted 28 passes in that game. Albert O is a tremendous athlete, possessing 4.49 speed at 6-foot-6 and 258 pounds. He’ll be arguably the most popular breakout candidate at tight end in 2022.
On the other hand, Seattle isn’t as exciting. If they don’t make any other moves, Lock will likely start at quarterback for the Seahawks, which is dreadful. We did see a stretch without Wilson in Seattle last year, as he missed three games. During that stretch, Seattle averaged 190.3 passing yards per game with Geno Smith under center, a drop of over 41 per contest. As for the receivers, DK Metcalf salvaged his fantasy production by scoring touchdowns alongside Smith, but Tyler Lockett’s numbers unsurprisingly took a hit.
The dynasty value for both receivers has clearly come down — if Seattle wasn’t willing to air it out with Wilson under center, it is pretty terrifying to imagine how much Pete Carroll might run the football now.
