Sleepers, Busts and Bets: The 2022 Tennessee Titans

Jeremy Popielarz and Nick Makowitz continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Tennessee Titans.

Jeremy and Nick will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Popielarz: Austin Hooper
Makowitz: Austin Hooper

Biggest Bust

Popielarz: Robert Woods
Makowitz: Derrick Henry

Boldest Bet

Popielarz: Ryan Tannehill Finishes as a Top-12 QB
Makowitz: Austin Hooper Finishes as a Top-10 TE

The Explanation

Sleeper

Popielarz: Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper put himself on the map in 2019, when he finished as the TE6 in PPR scoring with 191.7 points in only 13 weeks. This performance was fueled by 10 weeks of double-digit fantasy points, including three of 20-plus points. This helped him land a huge deal in Cleveland, but the fantasy value didn’t follow in his two years as a Brown. This dip in production was due in large part to the fact the Browns have deployed a three-headed committee at the tight end position, utilizing Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. Last year, Hooper managed 345 yards and three touchdowns on 38 receptions, all his lowest numbers since his 2016 rookie year. Despite losing targets to the other two, he was still the guy in the red zone, as he led the Browns in red-zone targets in 2021 and was the runner-up in 2020 behind Jarvis Landry. 

Now, Hooper is in Tennessee, a team that has some massive openings in its passing game this season. The Titans traded away A.J. Brown this offseason, released Julio Jones and let Anthony Firkser leave as a free agent. In their place, they traded for 30-year-old Robert Woods, drafted Treylon Burks in the first round and signed Hooper. With all the question marks in the receiver room (Woods is recovering from a midseason ACL tear, Burks has had asthma issues in minicamp), we could see Hooper be a significant piece of the team’s passing attack, which could lead to Hooper flirting with 100 targets for the first time in his career. That many targets — especially if he has a big red-zone role — could lead to a top-12 fantasy finish.

Makowitz: Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper left a Browns offense that targeted tight ends at the highest rate in the NFL. So how will he improve on his TE24 finish? The answer is competition … or lack thereof. In 2021, the Browns were one of just four teams with three tight ends who each accumulated at least 25 targets. All the tight end volume is great, but Hooper saw less than half of it in his two seasons in Cleveland.

When he broke out in Atlanta in 2018 and 2019, Hooper saw over 80% of the Falcons’ tight end targets. In Tennessee, Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt are gone, leaving just Geoff Swaim and rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo to compete with, so Hooper should take a majority of the tight end targets. Plus, the A.J. Brown trade leaves a gaping hole in an offense that needs a new number one receiving option.

Although Hooper has never scored more than six touchdowns in a season, he should see more than enough volume to outperform his TE24 ADP. If the touchdowns follow, he could jump from a streaming option to an every-week starter.

Bust

Popielarz: Robert Woods

Outside of last season’s ACL tear, Robert Woods has been one of the most consistent wide receivers for fantasy football over the past four years, never finishing outside the top 14 in PPR scoring. This was fueled by three seasons of over 120 targets, 80 receptions and 900 yards, scoring 6 touchdowns twice. That was all as a part of a high-powered Rams offense that consistently finished in the top half of the league in passing yards. This season, his situation is much different. He is now a 30-year-old less than one year removed from an ACL injury and paired with one of the least pass-heavy teams in the league— in 2021, the Titans ran the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL (49% of plays). 

If fully healthy to start the season, Woods is slated to be the Titans’ lead receiver, but only until the team is ready to unleash first-round pick Treylon Burks. Burks’ ascension will result in Woods sliding down the depth chart quickly and limiting his opportunities significantly. Last season the Titans only had one player top 60 targets — A.J. Brown with 105. The next-closest was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine with 56 targets. Now, with the addition of Austin Hooper and Burks, it seems unlikely Woods sees over 100 targets this season. There’s just not much of a path to Woods getting enough targets to finish anywhere near the standards he set in Los Angeles, even if he is healthy — which is no sure thing.

Makowitz: Derrick Henry

If you read this headline and thought to yourself, “Wow this guy is a moron,” that’s fair, but hear me out. Bust doesn’t mean Derrick Henry won’t be a fantasy asset. I’m just betting he isn’t worth nearly the price of his current ADP (RB4). We know he averages just over a catch per game for his career, so he doesn’t have the same floor as some of the league’s more versatile backs. What separates Henry is workload, monster games on the ground and touchdowns.

He’s torn up NFL defenses for the last three seasons, but as the Titans’ offense regressed in 2021, so did Henry’s efficiency. Last season, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry – more than a full yard fewer than he did the year prior and the second-lowest total of his career.

Now, without A.J. Brown on the outside, why wouldn’t defenses load the box to stop the run? In 2020, Henry faced a loaded box (8 or more defenders) on 34% of his rushing attempts and averaged 5.5 yards on those attempts. In 2021, the loaded boxes increased to 39% of his attempts while the yards per carry decreased to just 3.8.

On top of declining efficiency, Henry will most likely receive a lighter workload – behind a degrading offensive line – considering he broke his foot while on pace to break the single-season carries record. Tennessee drafted Michigan running back Hassan Haskins in the fourth round as an insurance policy.

Lighter workload, dip in efficiency, worse offense. That’s why I’m out on Henry at his ADP.

Bet

Popielarz: Ryan Tannehill Finishes as a Top-12 QB

Last season, we saw a significant dip in Ryan Tannehill‘s production, as he produced a QB13 finish with almost 100 fewer points than in 2020 — when he finished as the QB7 with 350.36 points. That has his fantasy draft stock plummeting, as Tannehill is QB23 in current ADP. But look deeper and you’ll see that there’s reason to expect a rebound. Last year, Tannehill threw for 3,734 yards — only 85 fewer than in 2020 — on a 67.2% completion percentage, which was actually up from 2020. On the downside, he had 14 interceptions and took 47 sacks, both his high marks since his second season in 2013, as the team’s offensive line struggled. He also failed to repeat his 33-touchdown performance of 2020, throwing only 21 touchdowns. 

There’s reason to believe the Titans offense as a whole rebounds in 2022, with the return of a healthy Derrick Henry and the arrivals of guys like Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Austin Hooper and Hassan Haskins. With more weapons and more production overall, Tannehill’s scoring output should bounce back and help him climb back into the top 12 this season.

Makowitz: Austin Hooper Finishes as a Top-10 TE

Austin Hooper’s path to the top-10 is probably clearer than you think. Take a look at this table that compares the average No. 10 fantasy tight end since 2014 to Austin Hooper when he was a Pro-Bowler in Atlanta (2018-2019):

Of course, Hooper has had two seasons outside the top-10 since then, but he was sharing tight end targets with Harrison Bryant and David Njoku in Cleveland. Geoff Swaim is not David Njoku. Expect Hooper to receive a target share more similar to the one he carved out in Atlanta while he was essentially alone at his position.

If A.J. Brown was still in town, I might have a different outlook, but post-ACL-tear Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks are not reasons to hesitate with Hooper, who put up back-to-back top-10 finishes while part of an offense that included a younger and healthier Julio Jones.

Anthony Firkser, whom Hooper is replacing, had his fair share of hype entering last season, but these players and their situations are not the same. With Hooper’s track record and path to a high target share, don’t be surprised if he breezes past his ADP and cracks the top-10.