Sleepers, Busts and Bets: The 2022 New England Patriots

Daniel Kelley and Dan Fornek continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The New England Patriots.

Daniel and Dan will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Kelley: James White
Fornek: Jakobi Meyers

Biggest Bust

Kelley: Damien Harris
Fornek: Damien Harris

Boldest Bet

Kelley: Tyquan Thornton is the Top-Scoring Patriots WR
Fornek: Mac Jones is a top-15 fantasy quarterback

The Explanation

Sleeper

Kelley: James White

It’s easy to forget now, since he missed most of last season, but James White started strong in 2021. Through two games, he had 12 receptions on 13 targets for 94 yards, and he added 9 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He was the RB13 in PPR. Of course, he hurt his hip in Week 3 and missed the rest of the season. In his stead, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson formed a strong 1-2 punch, combining for 325 PPR points, and the Patriots drafted rookies Pierre Strong (fourth round) and Kevin Harris (sixth) this year. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in one backfield.

The problem? (Or the not-a-problem if you’re James White.) No one in that list promises to be much of a receiving threat. Damien Harris has 28 targets in 27 games in his three years in New England. Stevenson had 18 targets in 12 games last year. Strong had 50 receptions in four years at South Dakota State. Kevin Harris had 35 in 27 games at South Carolina. In other words: If there’s going to be a pass-catcher out of this backfield in 2022, it is once again going to be the now-30-year-old White. And while the New England offensive line should still be good (it’s ranked seventh in our FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings), it won’t be as good as it has been thanks to the departures of Shaq Mason and Ted Karras, and there’s a scenario where it’s much worse, forcing more dumpoffs. White is virtually free in drafts (he’s going as RB68 right now) and could easily produce weekly flex numbers. 

Fornek: Jakobi Meyers

None of the Patriots wide receivers are being prioritized in fantasy drafts, with Jakobi Meyers serving as the most expensive option (WR55). In theory, that makes the entire receiving corps a “sleeper,” so we will choose the best one as the biggest sleeper. Meyers has arguably been the Patriots’ best wide receiver the last two seasons primarily operating out of the slot. The veteran took a significant step in 2021, finishing the season with 106 targets, 83 receptions, 866 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers were strong enough to finish as the WR29 in PPR fantasy leagues. After two seasons struggling to find the end zone, the third-year receiver finally cashed in twice.

The Patriots offense has a plethora of weapons in the passing attack and a quarterback who is willing to distribute the ball, which makes it difficult to project any singular player to break out. However, Mac Jones established a rapport with Meyers during his rookie season, so if you’re looking for a player to greatly exceed his ADP, Meyers is the best bet.

Bust

Kelley: Damien Harris

The flip side of the “White is a sleeper” conversation is that Damien Harris has extremely low upside. Even if not every back currently on the roster (the five already mentioned plus J.J. Taylor) breaks camp with the Patriots, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Harris is a big fantasy producer. He finished as the RB13 in PPR leagues last year, but he did so with 1,061 scrimmage yards, the fewest of any back in the top 18 and second fewest among the top 22. He also had only 18 receptions, tied with Derrick Henry for the fewest among any back in the top 40 in PPR.

How did he do it? He scored 15 touchdowns, fifth among running backs (the four ahead of him — Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, James Conner and Joe Mixon — finished as RB1, RB2, RB5 and RB4 respectively). Among backs with 100-plus touches, only Conner, Ekeler and Boston Scott scored more often per touch than Harris. Any touchdown regression, combined with the return of White, the presence of Stevenson and any work for the others, makes it hard for Harris to return value, even on his RB28 ADP.

Fornek: Damien Harris

Similar to wide receiver, none of the Patriots running backs are going exceptionally early in fantasy drafts, so they all represent some level of value. However, if one has a chance to fall short of his ADP, it would be Damien Harris coming off the board as RB26. Last season, Harris led the Patriots backfield, carrying the ball 202 times for 929 yards while catching 18-of-21 passes for 132 yards. Despite the modest statistics, Harris finished as 2021’s RB14 thanks to 15 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Scoring a touchdown on every 13.4 carries historically hasn’t been sustainable for running backs, so it’s hard to believe Harris can replicate that performance. Additionally, Harris doesn’t factor heavily in the passing attack and is more of a two-down grinder. Harris had just three games during the 2021 season with a snap share above 50%. The presence of Rhamondre Stevenson (133 carries, 606 rushing yards, five touchdowns) will likely cut into Harris’ workload once again. New England also can rotate between Harris, Stevenson, and sixth-round pick Kevin Harris on rushing downs, while also using James White (his health is not a given), J.J. Taylor, and fourth-round pick Pierre Strong on passing downs.

The old strategy with the Patriots backfield has always been to draft the cheapest one. New England likely won’t carry all six running backs, but they will be able to piece together a situational backfield with a bunch of players who all do somewhat different things. Damien Harris will likely pace the Patriots backfield next season, but it will be difficult for him to pay off at ADP unless he replicates an elevated touchdown rate.

Bet

Kelley: Tyquan Thornton is the Top-Scoring Patriots WR

The 2021 Patriots were fine on short and intermediate targets. Great, maybe not, but fine. Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne formed an unlikely productive duo, and Hunter Henry had a TE1 season in his first year in New England. Add in offseason acquisition DeVante Parker, who is slightly better than the others at speed but still isn’t exactly Joey Galloway, and the intermediate area is in pretty good hands in New England. Where the Patriots needed help was in stretching the field. Last year, only three Patriots receivers had an average depth of target of more than 10 yards — Kristian Wilkerson (aDOT 17.6 yards), who had 2 touchdowns on 8 targets in his only game played; N’Keal Harry (14.6 yards), who did almost nothing on his 22 targets; and Nelson Agholor (14.8 yards), last season’s free agent signing who turned a full-time workload into a disappointing 473 yards and 3 touchdowns. 

As it stands, all three are still around for 2022, though Wilkerson and Harry could combine for 0 targets and no one would be surprised. Agholor might not even make the regular-season roster. Which brings us to Tyquan Thornton, the Patriots’ second-round pick this year out of Baylor. There might be no faster receiver in the league than Thornton, who ran the fastest 40 at this year’s combine. If Agholor gets the axe, just about any deep, get-out-there-and-run target will go Thornton’s way, and with Parker, Meyers, Bourne and Henry all capping one another’s upside, even a small handful of big plays could give Thornton the most PPR points among Patriots receivers in 2022.

Fornek: Mac Jones is a top-15 fantasy quarterback

Mac Jones doesn’t get a lot of love in fantasy circles due to his lack of rushing upside, but Jones was far and away the best rookie quarterback in the 2021 class in his first season. Jones completed 67.6% of his passes for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. From a fantasy aspect, Jones averaged 14.0 fantasy points per game and ultimately finished as the QB18.

The Patriots ran their offense to protect Jones, running a nearly 50/50 split between run and pass plays and limiting him to roughly 30.6 pass attempts per game. If New England decides Jones is ready to open the offense up a bit in his second year, then he will have plenty of weapons at his disposal. The Patriots return their top-four receivers. New England also added a big-bodied perimeter receiver in DeVante Parker and a deep threat in the second round of the NFL draft (Tyquan Thornton). Jones doesn’t have the rushing upside we typically associate with top fantasy quarterbacks, but if he can grow upon a very efficient rookie season and take the next step in the passing game, he can easily finish the year as a high-end QB2.