Sleepers, Busts and Bets: The 2022 Kansas City Chiefs

Dan Fornek and Jeremy Popielarz continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Kansas City Chiefs.

Dan and Jeremy will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Fornek: Ronald Jones
Popielarz: Ronald Jones

Biggest Bust

Fornek: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Popielarz: Skyy Moore

Boldest Bet

Fornek: Patrick Mahomes Is Not a Top-6 QB
Popielarz: JuJu Smith-Schuster Is a Top-15 WR

The Explanation

Sleeper

Fornek: Ronald Jones

After four uneven years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ronald Jones signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Chiefs this offseason. He will have plenty of competition in the backfield in the form of former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, but there will be an opportunity to earn carries throughout training camp. Jones has been an effective rusher throughout his career, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with the Buccaneers. He will be running our second-ranked offensive line in Kansas City against defenses that will focus on stopping Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense.

There are some flaws with Jones. He is a nonfactor in the passing game (76 career receptions) and has struggled as a pass protector, which could ultimately cost him high-value snaps on passing downs. But given Edwards-Helaire’s health struggles throughout his career, Jones seems like the most likely running back to lead Kansas City in carries. That upside is well worth his current ADP of RB42 in NFC drafts. Fade the social media narrative about Jones getting cut and take the dive on a strong runner in a fast-paced offense.

Popielarz: Ronald Jones

After four roller-coaster years in Tampa Bay, Ronald Jones sign with Kansas City this season. It’s not a move that got many excited for fantasy. And it’s hard to blame them after last season’s performance, where he only averaged 4.2 yards per carry and struggled with ball control for the second straight year. However, looking deeper into the FTN advanced rushing stats, it’s clear that Jones and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have been very similar over the past two seasons. And that’s with the slight edge going to Jones, as he has more yards (1,406-1,320), yards per attempt (4.8-4.4), yards after contact (932-828), and rushing touchdowns (11-8). On top of this, Jones has excelled inside the red zone, scoring on 21.7% of his red zone carries, compared to Edwards-Helaire’s 16.3%. Last season, we saw Darrel Williams handle a majority of the red zone work for the Chiefs, so his departure opens up that role for the taking. 

It’s likely we will see a split backfield this season, which traditionally is trouble for a player’s fantasy production, but we have seen Jones produce in these situations before. In 2020, he had a career season with 978 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5.1 yards per carry while splitting touches with Leonard Fournette. We likely see something along these lines this season, as the Chiefs have said they hope to use Jones on early downs — which is no surprise, as he is the best pure runner of the group. As a result, he will likely see significant touches while possibly becoming the top red zone running back on a team that produced 28.2 points per game last season. With the possibility of high touchdown upside and a path to 150-plus touches, it’s easy to see how he could become a flex-viable asset on a weekly basis this season. 

Bust

Fornek: JuJu Smith-Schuster

The Tyreek Hill trade opened up plenty of opportunity in the Kansas City passing attack in 2022. The Chiefs took a lot of shots at the wide receiver position this offseason, signing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency and drafting Skyy Moore in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. The only thing we know for certain about the Chiefs’ passing attack is the fact that all of these players will be competing for second in targets behind Travis Kelce.

As the most expensive WR in the group by fantasy draft status (WR33), Smith-Schuster seems like the most appropriate fade at cost. He has spent the last few years of his career trying to recapture the stellar production he had his first two years in the NFL with the Steelers, when he caught 169 of 245 targets for 2,343 yards and 14 touchdowns while complementing Antonio Brown. Since those two big years to start his career, Smith-Schuster has averaged just 75.3 targets, 51.3 receptions, 504 receiving yards and four touchdowns in 11 games per season. Smith-Schuster has seen his yards per target drop each of the last five seasons, under 9.0 each of the last two years. Some of that can be attributed to Ben Roethlisberger’s declining arm strength, but it’s also possible JuJu has regressed as a player due to injuries.

The Chiefs have an ambiguous passing attack heading into 2022. Given the uncertainty behind Travis Kelce in the pecking order, it makes much more sense to grab an option like Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Mecole Hardman 40 picks later than Smith-Schuster’s lofty draft price.

Popielarz: Skyy Moore

Landing in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense has helped garner a lot of hype for rookie Skyy Moore, but we should probably pump the brakes a bit. Moore was a key player at Western Michigan throughout his three seasons there, as he saw 247 targets (including bowl games). With this, he produced 171 receptions, 2,482 yards and 16 touchdowns as a receiver, with a significant amount coming as a junior last season (95 receptions, 1,292 yards, 10 touchdowns). On top of this, his advanced stats (per PFF) were impressive as well, producing 45 missed tackles, 1,089 yards after contact and 2.92 yards per route run and winning 45% of his contest targets over his career. Although impressive, this was all done in the Mid-American Conference, which is not the highest level of competition college football has to offer, so it’s worth wondering how quickly he’ll transition to the jump to much stiffer competition. If having to contend with that was not enough, he is joining one of the most complex offenses in the league led by Andy Reid. We have seen this offense chew up and spit out multiple high-end rookies in the past, most recently Clyde Edwards-Helaire in his two seasons.

In addition, the Chiefs added Ronald Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and UDFA Justyn Ross this offseason to an already talented roster that already includes Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, a player who has seen a target share of over 20% each of the past two seasons. With Tyreek Hill now in Miami, it is likely Kelce duplicates this target share again in 2022, which limits the number of opportunities to go around. Add in all the playmakers I listed above, and it could be difficult for Moore to carve out weekly fantasy value this season. 

Bet

Fornek: Patrick Mahomes Is Not a Top-6 QB

Patrick Mahomes has been one of the most reliable fantasy players throughout his career, never finishing below 20.85 fantasy points per game in a season as the starter. Last season, teams started countering Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense by playing more two-high safeties, which he navigated well by spreading the ball around underneath. That included utilizing Tyreek Hill on deep crossing routes, which he often turned into big plays thanks to his game-breaking speed. With Hill now on the Dolphins, Mahomes will be leaning on a group of veteran receivers that lack his top-end speed, which could result in very efficient games with lower top-end passing numbers.

Despite all of this, this prediction has less to do with Mahomes’ ability to generate big plays and more to do with emerging young quarterbacks that also feature rushing upside or teams with equally high-volume passing attacks and better weapons. Mahomes was the QB4 in fantasy last season but will face stiffer competition at the position this season. Kyler Murray will hopefully be healthy and saw his team add Marquise Brown via trade during the draft. Lamar Jackson can always finish as a top-three quarterback thanks to his rushing ability. Joe Burrow will be a year healthier after an ACL tear and in an offense with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. Matthew Stafford will have another year of familiarity with Los Angeles’ passing attack and the addition of Allen Robinson. Jalen Hurts has a huge rushing upside and added one of the best YAC receivers in A.J. Brown. That list doesn’t even account for players like Trey Lance in his first starting season or Russell Wilson in what should be a pass-heavier offense.

Mahomes is as reliable as they come at the quarterback position, which is why his current ADP in NFC drafts is QB3. However, given the number of quarterbacks with more established weapons or higher rushing upside, there is a very real chance that Mahomes has his lowest fantasy finish since the 2019 season (QB8).

Popielarz: JuJu Smith-Schuster Is a Top-15 WR

JuJu Smith-Schuster is only 25 years old and has already produced 3,855 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns in five seasons. He has finished as high as the WR7 in PPR (2018) and had two more top-24 finishes. Although he has seen a dip in his yards per reception every year for the last three years, he did manage to score a career-high in touchdowns in 2020 (9). He finished as the WR16 in PPR in 2020, with 234.1 points (14.6 PPG). It was no surprise that he landed in Kansas City this offseason — the Chiefs reportedly tried to land him a year ago. Now reportedly fully healthy after a shoulder injury that derailed his 2021, he is set to be a lead target in an offense that has produced a top-12 wide receiver and tight end in the past two seasons. 

Last season, the Chiefs threw 675 passes, second most in the league. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce saw the lion’s share of them — 293 targets, good for 43% of the targets. With Hill now in Miami, a significant role in the offense is open, and Smith-Schuster could step into this role. A lead role in an offense that scored 28.2 PPR points per game (fourth in the league last season) will allow him to see an opportunity to set a career-high in touchdowns. As a result of the possibility of increased touchdown production, along with being paired with one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league, it is easy to see how JuJu could carve out a significant role and finish within the top-15 PPR scorers at receiver in 2022.