Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Each week, I’ll review my single-entry NFL DFS lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes:
- Single-entry lineup
The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long term success in GPPs.
Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance.
The Single-Entry
Every choice we make can be categorized in one of four groups:
- Bad Process, Bad Outcome
- Bad Process, Good Outcome
- Good Process, Bad Outcome
- Good Process, Good Outcome
We’ll begin with No. 1:
Bad Process, Bad Outcome
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Given his ankle injury and Mike Evans’ presence, Antonio Brown was too fragile for his popularity. AB and Chase Edmonds could have been Elijah Mitchell and Christian Kirk, giving me enough money to get the Indianapolis DST with Jonathan Taylor.
Bad Process, Good Outcome
N/A
Good Process, Bad Outcome
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The roster percentage I got with Ezekiel Elliott was tremendous, and as I discussed in each article leading up to Sunday, he paired perfectly with an Arizona stack. It was key that Dallas scored early and often so that the game would turn into a track meet, but we got the opposite script, which also meant Dallas was never able to get Zeke going on the ground or put him in position to score.
Deonte Harris, WR, New Orleans Saints
With no Tre’Quan Smith, I loved Deonte Harris (now Deonte Harty after a Christmas name change) this week at minimum price. Unfortunately, it was all Marquez Callaway and Alvin Kamara in the receiving game. Still, pairing Harris with Braxton Berrios allowed me to pay up twice at RB, which could have paid off tremendously.
Good Process, Good Outcome
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
(and Chase Edmonds to some degree)
Kyler Murray was solid despite the fact that the script worked against him, which just goes to show how much upside there was if he had been forced to play catch up. Zach Ertz was heavily targeted once again, and the good process/good outcome aspect to Chase Edmonds was that I left myself enough flexibility to use him when James Conner was ruled out.
Braxton Berrios, WR, New York Jets
The beauty of Braxton Berrios was that in addition to the high target rate, he also had a strong red zone role coming in and was manufactured touches with carries and WR screens. That was exactly how his day turned out. It’s nice when things happen as designed.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
100 yards and a score was a virtual guaranteed for Jonathan Taylor. It’s funny to say, but 21.3 felt a little underwhelming. Still, JT came through despite his team as a whole underperforming, and I was happy to be correct about his roster percentage staying tame at just 20%.
