Second-Year Scouting Report: Treylon Burks

August is underway, and we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 regular season. Best ball leagues have been drafting for months now and they are getting more popular now that we understand landing spots for veteran free agents and rookies.

Every year, rookie fever emerges and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from year 1 to year 2.

Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. The series shifts today to Treylon Burks, the second-year wide receiver with the Tennessee Titans. This article is a breakdown of Burks’ first season and what fantasy managers can expect from him going forward in 2023 and beyond.

Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans

Treylon Burks spent three seasons at Arkansas, where he produced impressive numbers in an SEC that is typically loaded with defensive talent. In his sophomore and junior seasons, Burks emerged as an elite college wide receiver, racking up 117 catches, just under 2,000 receiving yards and 19 total touchdowns. At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Burks’ athleticism and strong hands allowed him to dominate lesser defenders so much so that the Tennessee Titans drafted him 18th overall to be A.J. Brown’s replacement. 

Burks’ rookie season with the Titans got off to a rocky start as reported asthma trouble hindered his ability to practice early on. Inconsistency became a bit of a theme for Burks, as he struggled to string together multiple good games, and he never played more than four games in a row due to injury. Overall, he showed flashes of his athleticism and prowess for owning the middle of the field, but he never quite put it all together. In year two, he’ll attempt to get a step closer to replicating his predecessor’s production, but he’ll likely be playing second fiddle behind DeAndre Hopkins.

What Went Wrong

As mentioned above, some of Burks’ struggles during his rookie season came at the hands of bad luck. Injury forced him to miss six games and broke his season up into three parts, and when he was on the field, the bad luck followed him. According to FTN’s Expected Fantasy Points tool, Burks finished with 23% fewer fantasy points than he was expected to, making him one of the 10 unluckiest wide receivers in fantasy. Basically that entire below-expectation result was due to bad touchdown luck (one actual versus four expected) and failure to convert on the significant number of deep chances he was given. 

That aspect – his average deep ball success rate on a well-above-average deep target rate – is where Burks needs to grow in year two. The Titans wanted him to be their deep threat, but he wasn’t a strong separator downfield according to Reception Perception, and he left fantasy points on the board by failing to capitalize on his opportunities. If he can improve on his downfield success, particularly against man coverage – which the Titans saw the second-most often of any team – he could produce a few more big games for fantasy this season.

What Went Right

Because he was a victim of some bad luck, Burks probably had a better real-life season than fantasy season last year. His 22% targets per route run and 1.83 yards per route run were both above average among wide receivers, and his 25% deep target rate ranked seventh among wideouts with 45-plus targets. We noted above that he didn’t capitalize on those chances at anything more than an average rate, but the fact that the Titans – and specifically Ryan Tannehill – gave him that opportunity is a good sign. After returning from his four-game absence at the beginning of the year, Burks averaged four receptions, 58 yards and 11 PPR points in his four games with Tannehill at quarterback. In those same four games, his targets per route run saw a slight bump to 23% and his yards per route run skyrocketed to an elite 2.64 yards.

Much of that production came on the back of Burks’ success over the middle running slants and crossers. His big frame and strong hands allowed him to convert 78% of contested catches, so what he lacked as a downfield separator, he made up for as a reliable intermediate target in traffic. Overall, his fantasy season was marred by inconsistency, but he showed that he has the ability to be a good NFL receiver, especially when he has a solid quarterback.

Prognosis Entering 2023

Entering year two, Burks is in a precarious spot. On one hand, he should have his first fully healthy offseason and regular season, which is typically huge for player development. On the other hand, he’s the second receiving option for an average quarterback who will be dropping back behind a terrible offensive line. Not to mention the possibility that his quarterback is benched for a second-round rookie. 

Burks’ range of outcomes feels really wide this season, but I’m more bullish on him than most. I also don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that DeAndre Hopkins is the runaway No. 1 target. Burks played a ton in the slot in college and almost exclusively on the outside in his rookie season, so Hopkins’ arrival should allow the Titans to be more flexible with him. A top-24 finish is not out for the question for the former Razorback, health considered. 

Dynasty Outlook

Burks’ ADP was climbing this offseason when it looked like he’d be the unchallenged No. 1 wideout on the roster. Then, when Tennessee signed Hopkins, it took a hit. Buy the dip. Hopkins signed a two-year deal, but he already showed signs of slowing down in 2021 before his six-game suspension seemingly rejuvenated him last year, plus Derrick Henry is soon going to experience the hardship of being an NFL running back who wants a new contract. 

All that is to stay this offense could very easily feature Treylon Burks next season. He shouldn’t be valued anywhere near the likes of Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson, but he should be a top-24 guy in dynasty startups. For existing leagues, I’m looking to go get Burks from the manager who was bummed by the Hopkins signing, and I wouldn’t be dealing him at his floor.