Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
If your seasonal teams couldn’t survive last week’s injury Armageddon, I’m sorry.
However, DFS is still there for anyone who was bit by the injury bug. And that includes all DFS sites like PrizePicks. Every Friday I highlight some of the more intriguing props over at PrizePicks and decipher whether the over or the under is the optimal choice.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 3, shall we?
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (@ BUF)
Projected score: 14.5 points; the pick: OVER
The average eye might see a matchup with Buffalo and assume it’s an awful matchup for Kupp. And while it isn’t exactly an elite one, I’m not running from it either. The Bills are a great defense, but two things lead to slot receivers being more involved against them. For starters, they play a lot of zone defense, which favors the interior targets. Secondly, they have an elite cornerback in Tre'Davious White that opposing offenses tend to avoid. White has been thrown at just four times in two games and I don’t expect quarterbacks to try him very often this season. As a result, Buffalo slot corner Taron Johnson has been targeted 20 times, allowing 16 yards per catch and 0.49 fantasy points per target through two weeks. Buffalo has also allowed the eighth-most slot targets and fifth-most slot touchdowns per game, while Kupp is still mainly operating out of the slot.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (vs CIN)
Projected score: 18.5 points; the pick: OVER
After missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury, Sanders returned in Week 2 and was immediately the top back in Philadelphia. He handled 23 of the 30 running back touches, while logging 77% of the snaps. He also ran 28 pass routes against the Rams and now gets an incredible matchup with a Bengals defense that just allowed 200 rushing yards and four total touchdowns to the combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last Thursday night. They are now allowing two rushing touchdowns per game through the first two weeks of the season and are only stuffing 12% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, good for the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (vs CIN)
Projected score: 11.8 points; the pick: OVER
Staying in Philadelphia, I like Ertz to get back on track this week. The Eagles are still operating out of 12 personnel more than any other team in football, which presents plenty of opportunity for both Ertz and Dallas Goedert to get theirs, especially with Jalen Reagor once again out of the lineup. Meanwhile, Alshon Jeffery isn’t quite ready to make his 2020 debut, making this a pretty concentrated passing attack. Ertz is still third among all tight ends in routes run, while the Bengals have some of the worst linebackers in the league at the moment. Look for Ertz to return to his high-floor production this week, while I also believe he finds the end zone.
James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs HOU)
Projected score: 15 points; the pick: OVER
After worries he’d be less than 100% or split carries with Benny Snell, Conner was the unquestioned bell cow for the Steelers last week, handling 18-of-23 running back touches while playing 77% of the snaps. That was incredibly encouraging to see but it was more promising to see him run well against the Broncos. Now he faces a Houston defense that is allowing the fourth-most second level yards in football, while just over 51% of the yardage surrendered by this defense has come via the run, the highest rate in the NFL. And we know they have allowed a ton of receptions to running backs over the last year, putting Conner in a very favorable spot.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (vs LAR)
Projected score: 16 points; the pick: UNDER
I could easily be wrong here, as Diggs has played like a top-five receiver so far this season. He’s running crisp routes and making contested catches, giving this Buffalo offense a new dynamic. However, he is going to see plenty of coverage against Jalen Ramsey, a top-three corner in the NFL. Diggs is playing on the left side of the formation 44% of the time and in the slot 22% of the time so if Ramsey doesn’t shadow, he won’t matchup with him all game. However, he’ll see enough of his coverage to have me slightly taking the under in this spot.
