NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
If there is one thing I have learned over the course of my fantasy football journey, it is that fantasy football doesn’t ever end. It may slow down but we are always discussing or thinking about it. So it’s not too early to start looking at some potential post-hype sleepers for the 2023 season, even though we haven’t even reached the NFL Draft.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you want to know what kind of ceiling George Pickens has, just watch his catch against the Browns on back on Thursday night in Week 3. His rookie season was up and down, ultimately ending with Pickens totaling just over 800 yards and four touchdowns on 52 catches. The Steelers went back and forth between Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett at quarterback, and Pickens was more productive with the rookie under center, as Pickett gave him more opportunities down the field.
In 13 games alongside Pickett, Pickens averaged nearly two more receptions, 23 more receiving yards and 6.5 more PPR points per game. If you look at the 13 games where Pickett was under center, Pickens was eighth among all wideouts in deep targets with 20, and over the course of the season, his 15.6-yard aDOT was ninth among qualified wide receivers. Pickens also demonstrated tremendous contested catch ability, hauling in 19-of-28 contested catch opportunities (67.9%). And per PlayerProfiler, Pickens ranked 18th in fantasy points per target (1.96) and 15th in QB rating per target (108.0). Pickens showed flashes of not just being a good NFL wide receiver, but a borderline WR1 for a team. Look for him to emerge as the WR1 in Pittsburgh in year two.
Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers did recently add veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen, but there is still a chance for Marshall to have a mini breakout in his third NFL season. Marshall saw plenty of hype coming out of LSU in 2021 but hasn’t made a ton of noise just yet. However, DJ Moore is now in Chicago, and while Thielen has arrived, he is far from a WR1 at this stage of his career, reaching 70 receiving yards in only one game last season. And among qualified wideouts, Thielen’s 1.06 yards per route run was 17th worst in the league. Marshall has an opportunity to ascend in year three, which is when many wideouts tend to find their footing. Carolina will almost certainly draft either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, and the addition of head coach Frank Reich will help the offense immensely. Reich loves utilizing these mesh routes to get easy completions on crossing patterns. Just look at Michael Pittman in Indianapolis last season, for instance, as he led the entire NFL in targets in the short middle of the field with 51, according to the FTN NFL Directional Tool. Marshall, meanwhile, had just two such targets last year, while Moore only had 10.
I’d like to see Marshall play out of the slot more this season, as he lined up inside just 9% of the time in 2022. And while he is 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Marshall is capable of playing out of the slot, doing so quite a bit during his final two seasons at LSU. What could really propel a breakout campaign from Marshall is touchdowns. During the second half of the season, Marshall was 16th among wide receivers in end zone targets, as the Panthers gave him plenty of red zone opportunities.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
In last year’s edition of this article, I had Miles Sanders on this list, and he went on to have a career season. Sanders is now in Carolina, so let’s go back to the Eagles backfield with Kenneth Gainwell, a player I absolutely love. The Eagles did just add Rashaad Penny and could also still draft a running back, but Gainwell is a good player who has earned more work going forward, and we saw that a bit during the playoffs, averaging 13.3 touches per game in three contests. While it is unlikely Gainwell becomes the clear lead back, I do believe he sees an uptick in carries this season, which would be fantastic. Running backs in this Philadelphia offense are usually very efficient, as Sanders has ranked top-five in yards before contact per attempt each of the last three seasons. And in 2022, Sanders had 26 carries where he wasn’t even contacted by a defender, good for seventh in football. Gainwell will also continue to play most of the passing downs, as he logged 63.5% of the team’s third downs this past season, the eighth-highest rate among all running backs. Gainwell is going to be one of my favorite running backs to target in the later rounds of drafts this summer, especially if I go with a bit of a zero-RB approach.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me right back in.”
There is perhaps no better match of quote and player than that quote and Cam Akers. In the 2022 offseason, Akers was drafted in the fourth round, the RB17. However, the Rams featured Darrell Henderson more to start the season, which led to Akers growing frustrated with his role. He asked for a trade, but when the Rams didn’t move him, it looked as if he wouldn’t do anything the rest of the year. However, Henderson got released, Akers became the every-down running back, and he ultimately helped win fantasy championships.
What a roller coaster.
In Weeks 13-18, Akers was the fantasy RB4, averaging 18 fantasy points, 17.3 carries and 85.3 rushing yards per game. During that span, Akers was third in the league in missed tackles forced (24) and fifth in runs of 15-plus yards (5). He was productive, despite playing in a below average Rams offense and while this team is clearly on the decline, having Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp back in 2023 should help this offense return to relevancy. And with new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur in town, Akers could see an uptick in passing work (he only caught 11 passes during the final six weeks), which would be a welcome sight, especially considering he was an elite pass-catching running back in college.
