Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every year, there are player breakouts that can be viewed as career-changing. Let’s try to get ahead of that with a list of six players who could become the next wave of fantasy stars.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
Since entering the league in 2020, D’Andre Swift has become one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league. He has produced back-to-back 800+ yard all-purpose seasons and two 7+ touchdown seasons. With this has come great weekly fantasy success. As a rookie, he averaged 14.2 PPR points (RB18) and followed that up with a 16.2 average in 2021 (RB11). His downfall is that he’s struggled to stay healthy – never playing in more than 13 games in a season. As a result, Swift has never finished higher than RB16 in season-long PPR scoring. This has made him a popular breakout candidate this season, especially after last season when he saw a career-high 78 targets in just 13 games. On top of this, he was extremely productive on the ground – producing eight more 10+ yard runs than in 2020. Frustratingly, he struggled to find the end zone, as he saw his touchdown production drop from 10 in 2020 to just seven in 2021.
This offseason, the Lions added a lot of talent to the offense by bringing in free-agent wide receiver DJ Chark and drafting rookie Jameson Williams. Both players are true deep threats, which will force defenses to soften the box as they protect the deep halves of the field. This will be beneficial for Swift, as last season, he saw 101 runs with at least seven defenders in the box. Using the FTN Defenders in the Box tool, we can see that on these runs, he only averaged 3.1 yards per carry compared to the 6.8 yards per carry he averaged when there were only five or six defenders in the box. With these softened boxes, and hopefully a full 17 games, it’s easy to see a path for Swift to fall within the top 12 in PPR scoring.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Last season, we saw Kyle Pitts come in as a rookie and produce the best fantasy rookie tight end performance since Evan Engram in 2017. He put up 173.8 PPR points and finished as TE5 due in large part to his 68 receptions for 1,068 yards. Although he had success last year as a rookie, many fantasy managers were frustrated with his lack of touchdown production, as he only found the end zone once. This was surprising considering he led the Falcons in target share (19%) and amassed 110 total targets, which was top five among tight ends in 2021. This target share was made possible due to his ability to line up all over the field, making him a matchup nightmare for defenses. His success against defensive backs in man coverage allowed the Falcons to line him up outside for 34.2 % of his snaps. As a result, his 11.2 yards per target and 15.1 yards per reception led all NFL tight ends. This helped prove that he is not just a tight end, but a versatile weapon in the passing attack.
This season, Calvin Ridley is serving a year-long suspension, and Russell Gage is now gone via free agency, ultimately opening an opportunity for Pitts to see an increase in targets. Even with the addition of rookie Drake London, it’s likely that Pitts is the lead target for the Falcons in 2022. With this, it’s easy to see how he could see over 150 targets this season – similar to what Mark Andrews saw this last season. With this large target share and better touchdown luck this season, he will take a huge step forward. He is on the cusp of becoming the TE1 this season and will likely remain there for many years to come.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
As the second running back taken in the first round of last year’s draft, Travis Etienne was a popular pick to make a significant impact as a rookie. Unfortunately, we never had a chance to see this, as a Lisfranc injury derailed his rookie season in training camp. Now a full year removed from this injury and fully healthy, Etienne has a huge opportunity to become one of the premier running backs in fantasy football. He is in line to see a significant market share among running backs this season in both carries and targets because fellow running mate James Robinson is still recovering from an Achilles tear. Outside of this, the Jaguars only have rookie fifth-round pick Snoop Conner and Ryquell Armstead on the depth chart. Those two players likely won’t see a significant number of touches, making Etienne the clear lead running back on the roster.
Last season, the Jaguars gave 393 opportunities to the running backs. Even with a new coaching staff, this number should remain similar in 2022. When we look back at head coach Doug Pederson’s history, we see that in 2019 and 2022, he helped produce the best two seasons of Miles Sanders’ career. He finished both seasons averaging over 13 PPR points a week, en route to one top-15 finish (2019). If not for an injury in 2020, it’s likely he would have had two. As a result, there’s a clear path to a significant role in this offense for Etienne. With volume like this and his talent, Etienne seems like a lock for a top-15 finish this year.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
Last season, Darnell Mooney exploded onto the scene and took over the lead role in the Bears passing attack. As a result, he produced his first 1,000-yard season and led the team with four touchdowns. His team-leading 140 targets were 12th in the NFL last season, and via the FTN Market Share tool, we can see that this was 26% of the Bears’ target share – the sixth-highest team market share in the league. On top of this, he was 11th in the NFL in first read-targets with 119. Frustratingly, the Bears offense struggled to find the end zone, which carried over to Mooney. Due to a lack of production in this category, he only finished as WR29 in PPR scoring last year with 219.7 points. The Bears were a popular choice this offseason to land a top wide receiver, but this never happened. Instead, they addressed the position with many less-proven players. As a result, Mooney is likely to command a similar target share as last season.
The Bears have a new coaching staff in place, led by Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Many believe that Getsy’s history as a passing game coordinator will help unlock the offense more than in past years. Also, many hope to see a second-year jump from franchise quarterback Justin Fields, leading to more passing this year as a whole. If we see both of these factors come to fruition, we can see a path to a top-15 finish for Mooney. He will see significant volume again this year, and with the overall offensive improvement, he should see better touchdown production as well.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton has become a popular pick again as a breakout player this season, and I believe we see that this year. In 2020, many people were expecting this breakout after two extremely productive years where he produced over 1,800 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Sadly, this never came to be, as an ACL injury in Week 1 derailed his 2020 season before it even had a chance to start. After returning last season, we saw him step back into a lead role in the Broncos offense, leading the team with 98 targets. Even with poor quarterback play, he produced 776 yards and two touchdowns and finished as WR44 in PPR scoring with 151.8 points. Using FTN’s Advanced Receiving Data, we can look even deeper to see that he led the team with 80 first-read targets, which only reinforced that he is the main target in the offense. He was also a significant part of the game plan in the red zone, as his 12 red-zone targets were second on the team to Noah Fant’s 16. Also, we can see that he had the second-lowest drop percentage on the team at 2.9%, while winning 52% of his contested targets. Sutton is extremely important and reliable for this Denver team, and he should be a popular target in this offense again in 2022.
With this role, and the addition of pro bowl quarterback Russell Wilson, a breakout could be on the horizon. Over his career, Wilson has produced numerous top fantasy wide receivers, even producing two top-12 wide receivers in 2020 – DK Metcalf (WR7) and Tyler Lockett (WR8). This offense should improve in 2022 under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and as a result, there should be several top fantasy producers. It seems highly likely that Sutton will be one of them.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
As one of the top quarterbacks selected in 2020, Tua Tagovailoa has failed to live up to the hype so far – especially with fellow draftmate Justin Herbert lighting up the league. Tua has yet to finish with over 3,000 yards passing or 16 passing touchdowns and never finished higher than QB26. Another significant factor has been his health. He hasn’t played an entire season as a pro. Although the overall production and fantasy success hasn’t been there yet, there’s been improvement every year. Using the FTN Advanced Passing Stats tool, we can see that he improved his completion percentage from 64.1% in 2020 to 67.8% in 2021. Also, he produced 800 more passing yards and five more touchdowns than in his rookie season. This offseason, the Dolphins brought in Tyreek Hill alongside second-year star Jaylen Waddle, creating a much improved wide receiver corps. As a result, Tua now has two speedsters on the perimeter who are excellent after the catch. This should help him take the next step this season.
The Dolphins also brought in a new coaching staff, led by first-time head coach Mike McDaniel. With this, many people believe the Miami offense is primed to take a huge step forward in 2022. With an increase in touchdown production and passing volume as a team, Tua will be the direct benefactor, and he should produce a significant amount of fantasy points. Although it’s unlikely he produces a top-12 finish, I do believe he could finish as a top-20 quarterback this year while rising to stardom.
