Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Quarterbacks to avoid in fantasy in 2022.
With superflex and two-quarterback leagues increasing in popularity, the quarterback position has become even more valuable. That makes it that much more important to hit on each one you draft, especially in redraft leagues where trading can be harder. Avoiding the below names may just help you find yourself making it to championship week in your league.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over the past two seasons in Tampa, Tom Brady has been a top-tier fantasy quarterback, But don’t be surprised if that changes this season. This offseason, the Buccaneers lost a few key pieces on the offensive line and will be without Chris Godwin for the start of the season. They did add Russell Gage in free agency, and he should fill the Godwin void during his absence, but it’s still a drop in talent.
With Bruce Arians out and a new guy calling the offensive plays in Byron Leftwich, it’s fair to wonder how the Tampa approach will change in 2022. Will Brady average 42.3 pass attempts per game like he did in 2021? Or will he average more in the mid- to high-30s like he had done for a decade before last year? Don’t be surprised if the offense leans more on the running game in 2022, leading to a more balanced attack compared to their 66% pass rate in 2021. Any increase in rushing would be a decrease in Brady’s pass attempts and cap his fantasy upside. A season similar to 2019 where he finished QB12 seems more likely for Brady this season, than the QB8 and QB3 finishes he has had since being in Tampa.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
In his first season in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford helped the Rams offense reach new levels. However, this may have been the highest they will ever reach, especially after his main target Cooper Kupp threatened the all-time receiving yardage record (1,947) and set a career high with 16 touchdowns. This was a large part of Stafford’s 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. These numbers were inflated, though, due in part to the inefficiency in the Rams’ run game after the team lost Cam Akers for the majority of the season and Darrell Henderson for chunks.
This is where we will see Stafford’s production decrease some in 2022 — with a now-healthy running back room, the offense will likely look to be more balanced. Last season, the Rams threw the ball 59% of the time, up from 56% in 2020. Assuming that goes back down, this small decrease will bring Stafford’s numbers down closer to the lower half of the QB1 ranks. That’s especially true if Kupp takes an expected step backward from his lofty 2021 performance. With all of these factors at work it makes sense to take a risk on players with higher ceilings than Stafford.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson has proven to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he’s playing. But “when he’s playing” is obviously a huge caveat there. Watson and the Browns are awaiting word of discipline from the NFL and what any suspension will look like. In the meantime, Watson is participating in all the team activities. However, as a manager in redraft, this situation is something we have to steer away from for the time being. There is great upside in a pick like this, but there is too much risk. It would be a big surprise if Watson is available for the full season, and it wouldn’t be much of a shock if he doesn’t even play a single game in 2022.
Of course, we may hear about discipline before your league’s draft, and that verdict may allow him to play some games this season. Even then, you should be leery. He hasn’t played a snap since Week 17 of the 2020 and won’t be able to work with the team while he serves whatever suspension he gets. A quarterback on more than a year off with a new team that he hasn’t had the chance to work with for a while should make you nervous.
This opinion could very well change if the NFL decides on only a short suspension. However, as it stands, Watson is almost undraftable in 2022, as you cannot have any faith that he would give you any return this season, and he could clog a roster spot all season.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston was off to a fine-if-unspectacular start to 2021 before tearing his ACL in Week 8. Before his injury, he had two QB1 finishes but also three games under 14 points. In total, he put up 120.3 total fantasy points, with 56.4 of those coming in two weeks and only a 10.7-point average across his other full games. He completed only 59% of his passes and averaged only 159 yards per game, with nine of his 14 touchdowns on the season coming in his two spike weeks.
Winston was clearly being held in check by Sean Payton — he only topped 30 pass attempts once in 2021, averaging 25.2 attempts in his completed games. Sure, the talent around him was subpar, especially with Michael Thomas missing the season, but even then, you’d expect a reliable quarterback to elevate his team. Heading into 2022 the Saints appear to be getting Thomas back, which is a nice boost, and also added Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave, creating a much-improved wide receiver group. However, even with this talent infusion, there are concerns around Winston. A major one will be his knee — will Winston be able to perform at a high level off this injury? Will the offense under new head coach Dennis Allen let Winston throw the ball more? Will departures along the offensive line limit his time? With all of the question marks surrounding him and around the Saints offense, he has to be a player to avoid.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Last season, Ryan Tannehill finished as the QB12 with 282.3 fantasy points, with a disproportionate chunk of those coming in four blow-up games. These games were his only QB1 performances all season, making him hard to start on a weekly basis. Last season he attempted the most passes since joining the Titans three years ago, and with those attempts came 14 interceptions, also his most with Tennessee. He also set as-a-Titan lows in touchdowns (21) and passer rating (89.6). This offseason, the Titans didn’t help him much, trading star receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles.
They replaced Brown with Robert Woods — 30 years old and coming off an ACL injury — and Treylon Burks — a raw but talented rookie first-rounder. That’s a significant dropoff in talent. Heading into the season, it’s safe to say that the Titans will be leaning on 28-year-old Derrick Henry and the run game even more. This is also a concern, as he is coming off a foot injury, creating the question of whether he can hold up. With all of these questions and injury concerns around this offense and an offensive line that has had trouble the past few seasons, it’s fair to have reservations on what Tannehill’s overall production will look like in 2022. The whole offense could take a step back from the 24.6 PPG it averaged last season (15th in NFL). With all those concerns, it makes sense to steer clear of Tannehill in 2022.
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders
There were high hopes in certain circles that a move to Indianapolis last offense could get Carson Wentz back on track, but that didn’t happen. He only had five weekly QB1 finishes and averaged only 15.1 fantasy points per game. He even had three weeks of 8 fantasy points or below, including one in the fantasy playoffs. His 3,563 passing yards and 62.4% completion percentage were career lows across his three full seasons. He did improve his ball security, tying a career low with only seven interceptions, though he also lost five fumbles. And per the FTN Fantasy advanced passing stats, he had 27 interception-worth throws, so he was lucky to escape with only seven picks.
Indianapolis got out of the Wentz business this offseason, trading him to the Commanders in March. Even with another fresh start, it’s hard to see Wentz returning to anything like his former MVP-candidate ways, even behind an offensive line ranked eighth in the FTN offensive line rankings. The Commanders lack talent on the perimeter, especially with veteran Terry McLaurin currently looking for a new contract. Even if the McLaurin situation gets worked out, it’s a shallow depth chart after him and rookie first-rounder Jahan Dotson, with Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown and Cam Sims the next men up; if the McLaurin situation is not resolved, it’s a true mess. Between a lack of weaponry and his interception-worthy throws likely turning into more turnovers, Wentz’ value isn’t likely to see a rebound in Washington in 2022.
