Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the near year approaching, I hope you resolve to spend the fat stacks of cash from the Survivor League championships you win with my advice on something practical. Like maybe an opal ring with a halo of dark gemstones?
Week 17 NFL Eliminator Picks
Cleveland Browns
-7.5 vs. Jets
Meanwhile, I hope to resolve to be less spiteful in 2024. But the new year doesn’t start until Monday, so I should be fine to lead off my Week 17 Survivor picks with a Thursday-led edition of the Revenge Game rankings.
1. Joe Flacco, Browns vs. Jets
Joe Flacco has to be the 1,000th former Jets player to tell reporters “I’m happy to be where I am, that’s for sure” after landing with another team. But if Flacco burned for the Ravens’ decision to drop him for a soon-to-be MVP in Lamar Jackson, imagine how vindictive he will be against a Jets team that passed on him for Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle who — never forget — threw 1 touchdown versus 13 interceptions in three seasons at UConn.
2. Elijah Moore, Browns vs. Jets
Elijah Moore may be lost in Flacco fever. But given that they are rolling with Xavier Gibson, Jason Brownlee, Irv Charles, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb at receiver these days, the Jets may have made a dumber decision to trade their 2021 second-round receiver Moore than they made at quarterback.
3. Orlando Brown, Bengals at Chiefs
Orlando Brown claims there’s no animosity between him and his former Chiefs team that let him leave for the rival Bengals in free agency. But Brown missed the birth of his son last week to play a Steelers team he’s known as his rival for less than 10 months. I can’t imagine what important life events he would skip to smash the team that no longer wanted him.
4. Jason Pierre-Paul via Chris Brooks (?), Dolphins at Ravens
The Dolphins’ decision to add veteran Jason Pierre-Paul after they lost their star pass rusher Jaelan Phillips to an Achilles injury in late November set up an enticing revenge game a few weeks later against his former Ravens team. But then last week, the Fins released JPP to activate running back Chris Brooks from injured reserve. Maybe Miami already learned whatever Ravens secrets Pierre-Paul had to tell them (like that Lamar Jackson is super quick)? Or maybe Brooks will defy the expectations of his typical special teams role and torch the Ravens for 100 yards and two touchdowns on offense? That seems unlikely, but as Kevin Garnett taught us, anything is possible!
5. Chase Young, 49ers at Commanders
Where other players might have been salty still just two months removed from a trade from the team that took him second in the 2020 draft, Chase Young was complimentary of his former Commanders team, telling reporters “they’re definitely a team who’s going to fight to the end”. But I’m sure the now-veteran Young understands that the NFL is a business. And unlike his new 49ers team, the Commanders simply had too much talent to keep Young on their roster.
–
If Flacco got the right rain gloves for Christmas, he might set a new record for pass attempts in a game.
Chicago Bears
-3 vs. Falcons
It sounds like Bijan Robinson has tried to brand himself as a positionless player to navigate the post-running-back era of the NFL, and I respect the sales pitch, even if it juked his head coach Arthur Smith out of giving him carries in the red zone this season. But I fear Robinson missed the mark on positionless players in the modern NFL. They aren’t the backs that can run, catch and block. They are the backs that can run and pass. If he had any sort of arm talent and wanted a serious second NFL contract, then Robinson should have switched to play quarterback back at Salpointe Catholic High School. And if he hasn’t realized that yet, he will after his foil Justin Fields beats him this Sunday, is traded to play quarterback for the Falcons this offseason, and signs a $100 million extension in 2026 that prompts Atlanta to pass on Robinson’s fifth-year option and instead draft his replacement.
Minnesota Vikings
-0.5 vs. Packers
Rumors are swirling that the “conduct detrimental to the team” that landed All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander a one-game team suspension was last week’s coin-toss gaffe. Apparently, Alexander declared the Packers wanted to “play defense” when he should have said “defer,” a word-choice mistake that with a different referee could have seen his team kicking off both halves. But Packers head coach Matt LaFleur denied that speculation and told reporters “It’s never for one thing.” This sounds like another job for this Big J Journalist. And thanks to more countless seconds of internet research, I have uncovered that the likely other “thing” is the fact that the Packers rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and just allowed Bryce Young to throw for 312 yards, 65 more than his previous season high of 247 yards. The Panthers are undoubtedly hanging a banner for Young’s FedEx Air Player of the Week nomination as we speak! If I were a Packers coach, I’d suspend Alexander and anyone else I could confirm played more than a handful of defensive snaps last Sunday.
The Vikings just declared some guy named Jaren Hall as their quarterback starter in Week 17, but I suspect any of Hall, Nick Mullens, or Josh Dobbs could torch the Packers for 400 yards with Justin Jefferson and literally anyone else at wide receiver. Give me the Vikings in this stupidly critical matchup for the NFC playoff picture.
Denver Broncos
-3.5 vs. Chargers
We have another coach denying some obviously true internet speculation on our hands! This time, it’s Broncos head coach Sean Payton who decided to bench Russell Wilson to “spark” his offense and certainly not because Wilson could lock in $37 guaranteed million in 2025 if he suffered an injury and failed a subsequent physical before the March vesting deadline. By my tone, you might assume that I think the quarterback switch will make the Broncos worse and will pick the Chargers this week. But while I am dancing with that former opinion, I can’t entertain the latter. De facto No. 1 Chargers receiver Joshua Palmer suffered an apparent concussion last week, and that seems likely to leave Easton Stick with Jalen Guyton and Quentin Johnston as his top two receivers this Sunday.
Assuming you aren’t among the Chargers’ literal 10s of fans, let me explain that further. Guyton has produced 39% of his receiving yards on explosive catches of 30 or more yards since 2020 — fourth highest among receivers with 1,000 or more total yards in that time — and he won’t have Justin Herbert throwing him passes. And even with mostly Herbert at quarterback, Johnston has just 0.90 yards per route run this season, the lowest rate of a first-round rookie receiver in the last three season. Not ideal! Jarrett Stidham could combine Russell Wilson’s 2023 passing skills with Wilson’s 2022 rushing skills, and if he could hand the ball to Javonte Williams without fumbling, the Broncos should still be able handle what’s left of Giff Smith’s Chargers this weekend.
New Orleans Saints
+2.5 at Bucs
If the bipolar weekly MVP narrative hadn’t already taught us that NFL watchers are prisoners of the moment, then the purported Baker Mayfield resurgence would. Mayfield’s Bucs have won four straight games and control their playoff destiny with games against uninspiring division rivals in the Saints and Panthers to close the season. But therein lies the issue. The Bucs have built their current streak with a pair of NFC South wins, and, let’s see…yep, Baker completed 48% of his passes for 202 and 144 yards in those wins over Panthers and Falcons teams that have a combined 9-19 record in their other games this season. If I heard anyone compare me to Tom Brady after those performances, I’d bat my lashes for a contract extension, too.
Twitter has been persistent in informing me that cornerback Marshon Lattimore is the reason Mike Evans has had so many flops against his division rival Saints in his career, and Lattimore will not return from injured reserve in time to play this weekend. But I can’t think of anything funnier than Baker crashing back to earth and Evans catching two passes for 16 yards in fantasy championship week. And if I can’t pull for chaos with my Survivor picks, where can I? Give me the Saints by a field goal.
Scott’s Pick: Cleveland Browns
Scott’s Record: 13-3
