Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Steelers -4, O/U 35.5
Steelers
The Steelers are 2-0 with Mason Rudolph under enter, and Rudolph has been named the starter yet again in Week 18. Kenny Pickett is set to return from his foot injury, but he’s currently listed as the backup.
The news bodes well for George Pickens, who has been phenomenal with Rudolph, surpassing the century mark with 130-plus receiving yards in back-to-back games.
Pickens has a 45% target share over the last two weeks and will now face a Ravens team likely resting its starters.
Ravens
The Ravens’ 56-19 beat down on the Dolphins helped clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with nothing to play for in Week 18. They’ve already ruled out Lamar Jackson, naming Tyler Huntley as the starter. Huntley averaged under 150 passing yards in six starts last season (147.3) but added over 30 yards per game on the ground (31.8).
Game Prop
George Pickens Over 3.5 Receptions
(+102, FanDuel Sportsbook)
George Pickens has a team-high 35% target share with Mason Rudolph under center, catching at least four passes for 130-plus yards in back-to-back games. In Week 17, Pickens caught more than six balls for the first time in his career (7), setting a season-high in target share (45%). The last time Picken faced the Ravens, he was targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 130 yards. With Baltimore clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they’ve already started ruling out starters, which means Pickens will likely be running against backups.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Bills -3, O/U 49.5
Bills
The Bills have won four of their last five games since moving on from Ken Dorsey, needing one more win to lock up their fourth straight divisional title. Although their record has improved with Joe Brady as the playcaller, the passing offense has gotten significantly worse. Since Week 11, Josh Allen has completed just 57% of his passes averaging less than 225 yards through the air (224.5).
He’s failed to throw multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games, getting shut out for the first time in Week 17. Allen still found the end zone twice on the ground for a second consecutive week, needing one more rushing touchdown to tie O.J. Simpson’s single-season franchise record (16). It’s worth noting that Allen suffered a stringer mid-game, but he should be a full-go against the Dolphins.
Dolphins
The Dolphins stranglehold on the AFC East has whittled away, needing a win in Week 18 to secure their first division title since 2008. As great as their offense has been, they looked significantly worse without Jaylen Waddle, who may not be available until the playoffs.
Tua Tagovailoa came away from the game with a minor shoulder injury, but his status for Week 18 does not seem to be in doubt.
The same cannot be said for Bradley Chubb who was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Miami will also likely be without Xavien Howard against the Bills, currently doubtful with a foot injury.
Game Prop
Tyreek Hill Over 91.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyreek Hill has 99-plus receiving yards in 11 of 15 games this season, averaging a league-high 114.5 receiving yards per game. Hill has a 37% target share and the second-highest WOPR (88.6%) in the NFL over the last two weeks with Jaylen Waddle out or limited and should continue to see plenty of volume in a must-win game against the Bills.
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The Packers’ wide receiving core has been plagued by injuries all season long, but may finally get Christian Watson back who has returned to practice in a limited fashion. They’ll likely need one more win to clinch a playoff berth which is easier said than done against the Bears who won four of their last five games. Chicago may be eliminated, but Justin Fields has every incentive to give it his all this weekend, possibly auditioning for a new team. Find out which team has the upper hand this weekend by using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!
