The Fantasy Options Most Hurt by Their Division in 2024

The NFL schedule changes every year, but six games for each team remain the same: the intradivisional matchups. The Titans might face the Bills one season, the Browns the next, the Chargers the one after that, but they’ll face the Colts, Jaguars and Texans twice each, every single year.

That doesn’t always have to mean much, but at the least, you can use teams’ divisional games as the control to the rest of the schedule’s variable. If a team is in a division with three putrid defenses, and its players thrive in those games but struggle out of the division, well, that tells us something, but it also means good news for that team’s players the next year, because they will still play those teams. The inverse is also true if a team’s divisionmates are all defensive stalwarts.

Of course, this is small samples we’re dealing with here. In a 17-game season, you face divisional opponents six times and non-divisional opponents 11. Miss a game here and there, and the sample size is even smaller. So just doing well or poorly against division foes isn’t enough to draw a conclusion. But it’s a heck of a place to start, especially as we’re progressing through free agency and seeing where most everyone will be playing next season.

That’s what I’m doing Thursday and today. Below, I’m looking at the fantasy players most hurt by their division in 2024, and what that means (if anything) for 2025. Thursday, I did the opposite — players most helped by their division.

(All scoring is PPR, players needed at least four intradivisional games to be considered.)

Players Most Hurt by Their Division in 2024

Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Outside the division: 10.9 PPR points per game
Inside the division: 3.9
Difference: -64.6%

Yes, all three of Justice Hill’s touchdowns last year came outside the division, but that’s a symptom, not the cause. In five games against AFC North opponents, Hill averaged 22.6 yards on 5.2 opportunities (carries plus targets), compared to 49.8 yards on 7.2 opportunities outside the division, despite playing roughly the same snaps (28.0 outside the division, 26.8 within). It’s well known that the AFC North divisional games tend to be bloodbaths. The big names (like Derrick Henry) can still get theirs, but fringe guys like Hill find themselves in tenuous situations in those games. In other words: AFC North games are for the stars, so don’t stream the second tier in those instances.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Outside the division: 17.8
Inside the division: 8.3
Difference: -53.5%

It was more pronounced than ever in 2024, but the simple truth is that Cooper Kupp has always fared worse against the NFC West than he has against anyone else. He’s 104 games into his career now, with 36 NFC West games and 68 interdivisional ones. His score inside the division is 22.1% lower — 14.3 PPR PPG in the division, 18.3 outside. It’s not that his ceiling is lower against the 49ers, Cardinals and/or Seahawks — of his 38 career 20-plus-point games, a health 11 have come against those teams. But his floor is very clearly lower, as nearly half (13 of 27) of his career games under 10 PPR points have come against his regular opponents. Seven of his nine worst games have come against divisional opponents. Kupp won’t be on the Rams in 2025, and while age and injuries are huge concerns, if he looks strong in the preseason, the prospect of not facing those same divisional opponents twice each a season could be a boon to his fantasy value.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills

Outside the division: 14.7
Inside the division: 7.0
Difference: -52.2%

Shakir played 15 games in 2024. He put up more than 11.0 PPR points in eight of 10 games outside the AFC East. He put up 11.0 or under in all five games inside the division. He had 11.0- and 10.4-point games against the Dolphins, but against the Jets and Patriots he put up 3.9, 4.2 and 5.5 points (and this doesn’t even include Week 18, when Shakir was inactive). He totaled 66 yards in those three games. The AFC East takes some lumps for bad teams overall, but the defenses show up against the Bills, and that is a factor when drafting any of them.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Outside the division: 18.3
Inside the division: 10.1
Difference: -45.1%

Chuba Hubbard ran shockingly well in 2024, nearly getting to 1,200 yards despite missing the last two games of the season. He had at least 50 rushing yards in all 15 games he played but three: 14 yards against the Saints in Week 1, 43 against the Buccaneers in Week 13 and 32 against the Cowboys in Week 15. He did have a 21.2-point game against the Saints in Week 9, but Hubbard’s two lowest-scoring games both came in divisional matchups. With Jonathon Brooks out for some if not all of 2025 and no other back even mildly resembling a bell cow on the roster, Hubbard should be fine for the season no matter the opponent, but if he opens slow against the division, it should be on your radar.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Outside the division: 26.2
Inside the division: 15.1
Difference: -42.6%

Yes, this includes Week 18, when Allen played one snap just to keep his games-played streak alive. But even if you take that out, his PPG dropped by 5.6 points in AFC East games. It was the source of much consternation in the fantasy football community in Week 12, when Allen put up his second-worst fantasy point total of the season against the Patriots (though it might not have been if those managers had listened to me). And it’s been a tradition for Allen, particularly when facing New England — over the last three years, he’s averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game against the Patriots, compared to 24.5 against everyone else. He’s still one of the two or three best quarterbacks for fantasy, and the good times certainly outweigh the bad by a fair margin, but with divisional games often concentrated late in the season, it is worth being aware of when investing in Allen.