Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Week 4 of NFL action ends on Monday with an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and the visiting Los Angeles Rams. Trying to find the same game parlay of the day in this matchup is tough. Neither team has looked anywhere near as good as many expected them to before the season started. These were two of the favorites to win the division and be NFC representatives in the Super Bowl.
They aren’t out of the running yet, but neither would take the same level of money for that Super Bowl run today. The Rams are up to +1400 and the 49ers are behind them at +1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Both were single digits in the preseason. The reason for this ties in with our same game parlay listed below.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the Day
Rams Moneyline +105
Under 42.5 points
Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions
(+575)
The money is coming in heavy on the Rams’ side. If people really thought the 49ers were a deserving big favorite, this number would have moved to -3. I have a slight lean to the Rams here, so with the 49ers being at home, I would think that makes this a coinflip or a slight edge for San Francisco. The fact I can get the Rams at plus money means they have a little bit of value on their side here.
The reason I like the under and the Rams has to do with San Francisco’s three games so far. They lost 19-10 to the lowly Chicago Bears. They lost 11-10 to the lowly Denver Broncos. The one win was a 27-7 beatdown of the lowly Seattle Seahawks. The theme here for the 49ers is they have had an easy schedule and only managed to come away with a 1-2 record. The defense has been doing their job and limiting points, but the offense has been dreadful and letting them down.
The Rams have not been scoring a ton of points either. They struggled in the opener with just one touchdown vs. Buffalo. They had a good game in Week 2 vs. Atlanta, but Atlanta has been one of the best over teams in the NFL this year. That game looks more and more like the outlier than the rule for the Rams this season.
The LA defense faced two pretty high-scoring offenses the first two weeks. Both Buffalo and Atlanta have been putting up points. When they faced a struggling offense like Arizona last week, they held them to only 12 points. The problem is they also struggled to score on a bad Arizona defense, putting up just 20 points. This game matches the top-ranked coverage defense in the 49ers taking on a struggling offense in the Rams. It also features a solid Rams defense facing a struggling 49ers offense. That means you can argue both defenses have an edge on the offenses they face, which could make this a low-scoring field position battle.
Matthew Stafford has thrown five interceptions, all of them coming in Weeks 1 and 2. In Week 3, they did not need to throw as much, and Stafford did a better job taking care of the ball. He had his season low in pass attempts in that game. The 49ers are one of the best coverage teams in the NFL this year, and the Rams are likely going to have to pass a bit more today.
That means more attempts expected for Stafford, and now those added attempts are coming against a very good pass defense. He is -130 to throw at least one pick today, and given the way he has looked in 2022, I like adding that as part of the same game parlay.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
