Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 10/3)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers: Luis Severino Over 5.5 Ks +100 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Yankees -150 @ Rangers +130 Total 8 (DraftKings)

Betting on baseball in the final week of the regular season can be tricky. Some pitchers will see abbreviated starts and be saved for the postseason, while other clubs and players have already checked out and are simply playing out their remaining schedule. We should be safe from an early hook in Texas today, as we back Luis Severino’s over 5.5 strikeouts. 

Monday will be Severino’s third start since hitting the Injured List in July. He increased his pitch count to 76 (from 64) in his most recent outing and mentioned after the game he’d like to get to 90 pitches in his next start. Aaron Boone and the Yankees scratched Severino from his start Sunday against the Orioles with the threat of rain and a lengthy delay. This tells us the Yankees would like to get their 28-year-old righty to face as many live hitters as possible without Mother Nature interfering. Severino has struck out 10 batters in nine innings since coming off the IL, so the stuff is certainly there. 

Severino got off to a great start this season in his return from Tommy John surgery after only throwing 18 major league innings since 2019. Severino’s 27.3% K rate is right around his career mark of 27.2%. When you adjust MLB’s leaderboard to a minimum 90 innings pitched, Severino actually has the 20th highest K% in all of baseball. 

His 12.5% SwStr% is more than 0.5% better than his career average and ranks 17^th best in the American League. The righty has been primarily a three-pitch pitcher in 2022, with his slider being his third-most thrown pitch at 21.3%. Severino’s slider has been his best punchout pitch with a 46.5% K rate and his best swing-and-miss pitch with a 19.9% SwStr%. This bodes well for his matchup with the Rangers, as they have the fifth-most strikeouts in baseball against sliders. 

Since August 1, only the Angels have a higher strikeout percentage than the Rangers’ 26% K rate against right-handed pitchers. Texas has actually increased that number since September 1 with a 27.3% K% against righties, highest in baseball. The Rangers have the highest swinging-strike percentage in the majors at 13.1%. 

The numbers don’t get any better for Rangers hitters, as they have the third-highest swing percentage in baseball while maintaining the lowest contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone, and the second-lowest contact rate on pitches inside the zone. Texas’ projected lineup Monday features five batters with a strikeout percentage greater than 26%. 

I’m projecting Severino to pitch about six innings (90 pitches), while punching out six or even seven Rangers batters Monday night. Alex Blickle’s Strikeout Model at FTN projects Severino for 6.5 strikeouts. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market. 

Bet: Luis Severino Over 5.5 Ks +100