NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
With only two games to choose from Sunday, it’s hard to pass on one of the NFL’s best postseason rivalries when Dallas travels to San Francisco, but I expect the Game of the Year in an unprecedented pseudo-rematch between Cincinnati and Buffalo. When the two clubs met nearly three weeks ago, it was the most dramatic of at least this season when Damar Hamlin collapsed on the turf in Cincinnati in cardiac arrest. In short: this game is going to be emotional.
Expect the teams to come to play in what should be one of the most exciting matchups of the 2022-23 season.
DraftKings NFL Divisional Round Same Game Parlay
Ja’Marr Chase 6+ Receptions
Bengals Over 20.5 Total Points
Gabe Davis Anytime TD
+450, DraftKings Sportsbook
This is a game I’m targeting because of its shootout potential, but I want to build in at least two components with a high likelihood to hit. My belief in the equanimity of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is the cornerstone of this build. On the road, in an emotional game, I expect Burrow to have to throw the ball a lot. His primary pass catcher, Ja’Marr Chase, dealt with a hairline fracture in his hip that sidelined him for November, but the bookends to his four-game absence are special. Chase has at least seven receptions in his last eight games, with at least 10 targets in seven of eight. Meanwhile, the Bills allow 20.2 targets per game to opposing wide receivers, the seventh-highest rate in the league this year. Buffalo also allows the fifth-highest completion percentage (43.86) to opposing wide receivers on passes of 20+ air yards. All of this should bode well for Chase’s 11.2 targets per game with a few chances to hit on deeper routes. He should feast Sunday.
I also like the Bengals to score over 20.5 points in a game that could come down to the last two minutes. Cincinnati has surpassed this line in seven of their last eight games and should continue to score this weekend against a Bills defense that, with Von Miller’s season-ending injury, has struggled to rush the passer at times. Remember, the Bills also allowed 31 points to a Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins team that limped into last week’s Wild Card Round. The offensive line issues that have plagued the Bengals down the stretch could be a factor, but the tougher pass rush was last week against Baltimore. I like this over with a Joe Burrow-like level of confidence.
I love those two plays as a core in a few other wrinkles of this SGP, but the real bonus comes with the Gabe Davis anytime touchdown. Remember last year? Divisional Round weekend? Arrowhead? I’m riding with “Playoff Gabe” Davis to find the end zone for his second consecutive game. During the Wild Card Round, the Bengals blitzed at a higher rate (41%) than any other team. When the Bengals blitz on passing downs, they allow the fourth-highest aDOT (9.37 yards), and if they decide to bring defenders at Josh Allen, I love the potential for Gabe Davis to find man coverage against Eli Apple or Cam Taylor-Britt, as highlighted earlier this week by FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe, and explode with another highlight-reel playoff performance.
