Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Tre Jones Over 5.5 Assists
(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tre Jones has been playing well in the absence of Devin Vassell. He has at least 6 assists in six of his last 10 games and is averaging 6.4 APG on the year.
LeBron James Over 7.5 Assists
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
A plus-money bet where my model has the player projected to go over the line by a full assist is always intriguing. My model projects LeBron James for 8.6 assists Friday, and he has gone over this number in four straight.
Steven Adams Over 11.5 Rebounds
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Steven Adams is averaging nearly 14.5 rebounds per game over his last 10, and this Lakers team ranks 26th in rebounds allowed to opposing big men, so it’s a great matchup for Adams, who projects for nearly 13 rebounds.
