Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Tre Jones Over 5.5 Assists
(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tre Jones has been playing well in the absence of Devin Vassell. He has at least 6 assists in six of his last 10 games and is averaging 6.4 APG on the year.
LeBron James Over 7.5 Assists
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
A plus-money bet where my model has the player projected to go over the line by a full assist is always intriguing. My model projects LeBron James for 8.6 assists Friday, and he has gone over this number in four straight.
Steven Adams Over 11.5 Rebounds
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Steven Adams is averaging nearly 14.5 rebounds per game over his last 10, and this Lakers team ranks 26th in rebounds allowed to opposing big men, so it’s a great matchup for Adams, who projects for nearly 13 rebounds.
