Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is here, which means the stakes are higher for everyone, and that makes our bets that much more exciting. In this article, I’ll take you through some of my favorite player props for the Divisional weekend.
T.Y. Hilton Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
While T.Y. Hilton isn’t in quite as good a matchup as last week, I still think he should clear this number. Hilton was signed on midseason by the Cowboys, and he has already seemingly gained the trust of his quarterback Dak Prescott. While he ended last game with 23 yards, he did have a very catchable drop in the first quarter, and the gamescript eventually got so out of hand that they really didn’t need to pass much in the second half. Before the game had gotten out of hand, he ran a route on 66.7% of dropbacks in the first half, which definitely shows he’s trusted in this matchup.
For me, one of the biggest things to look at is target competition, and he really doesn’t have any. With a truly elite linebacker core, the 49ers are incredibly good at slowing down running backs and tight ends, giving the wide receiver group some increased usage in this one. The 49ers are DVOA’s best rush defense in football, and I think Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will struggle in this one. Michael Gallup and Noah Brown have been two of the NFL’s least productive wide receivers — both of whom are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in separation score and catch rate this season. Even if you don’t trust those metrics, any Cowboys fan will tell you that neither has passed the eye test either. CeeDee Lamb is the clear standout in this wide receiver room, but I expect him to deal with bracket coverage and safety help all night long.
At the end of the day, there’s always some inherent risk in betting on a low-usage guy like Hilton, but I think this number is still too low for him. His usage has increased in every game he’s been on the Cowboys, and his 2.9 yards per route run has been impressive. With the most playoff experience of anyone on the roster, I’m expecting a good outing from the back.
DeVonta Smith Over 50 Receiving Yards
Eagles Moneyline
(Same-Game Parlay, -115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
DeVonta Smith has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in football, and I expect him to continue his dominance in this matchup. He has at least 50 receiving yards in both matchups against the Giants this season, earning 8 targets in each game. Additionally, he ended the season with eight straight games of at least 50 yards and 8 targets — not many guys have that kind of consistency on a week-to-week basis. Choosing between him and A.J. Brown is incredibly difficult, but Brown is much more of a boom-or-bust player. Smith is incredibly involved in the screen game, and Brown is likely to see more of Adoree’ Jackson. The Giants also played the most man coverage in the NFL, and Brown and Smith rank first and fourth against that coverage this season. As a devoted Washington fan, it hurts me to bet Philly, but I think they are the strongest favorite of the week. If Jalen Hurts is healthy, I expect this to look similar to their first regular-season matchup.
Deebo Samuel Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
(-120, BetMGM)
Deebo Samuel has over this number in six of seven career playoff starts, recording 32, 26, 39, 72, 53, 43 and 6 rushing yards in those games. He possesses elite after-contact ability, and I’m expecting creative usage to mitigate Micah Parsons/DeMarcus Lawrence pressure on the rookie QB Brock Purdy. Purdy has been great in this Kyle Shanahan system, but they also haven’t quite faced a defense like the Cowboys during that stretch. This is also one of those spots that’s gamescript agnostic, where I think Samuel will be involved whether they are winning or losing, this is not a team that abandons the run game. With his explosiveness, this has one-play potential here, but I’m expecting 3-4 attempts. 5 YPC with Deebo Samuel sounds like a good bet to me.
