Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Below are the 2022 NFL QB rankings as it pertains to projected starters. There does include a few interesting QB battles that will make the list go to 36 players. These players will be grouped in different tiers.
(Check out my other player rankings so far: Cornerback | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Running Backs | Edge Defenders | more to come!)
Tier 1: MVP Elite
These players are game changers in every sense of the position. They are perennial MVP and former MVP players and can take a team to contention despite the happenings around the roster.
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is the most complete QB in today’s NFL, posting PFF grades of 81.9 and 93.6 in passing and running, respectively, last year. It’s a no brainer that he is the No. 1 QB. With the emergence of Gabriel Davis, the elite play of Stefan Diggs and the addition of a steady Jamison Crowder, look for Allen to continue his top-tier play.
2. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The GOAT is back for another season after coming out of a brief retirement and after a season that saw Tom Brady throw 43 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and over 5,000 yards, he’s sure to have a “Super Bowl or bust” mindset in 2022. He will have to deal with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, but he will have two suitable replacements in Russell Gage and former All-Pro Julio Jones.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers comes back after an MVP-winning regular season (4,115 yards, 37 TDs against 4 INTs) that saw a disappointing playoff exit and a tumultuous offseason that included contract negotiations and the loss of top receiver Davante Adams. That said, Rodgers does get some familiar faces back in Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan. He also will have two explosive rookies in Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson to try to fill the void Adams left.
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
One of the biggest storylines of 2021 was the emergence of Joe Burrow as an elite QB. It is safe to say that after leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl despite their positional issues across the roster, Burrow has a trajectory that puts him in this group of passers. He will be getting the same core group of skill guys back in 2022 with a much-improved offensive line. Expect big things from Burrow this season.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is an interesting player to watch this year. He has the ability to do things that QBs cannot, but he did struggle more than usual last year, posting a higher PFF run grade (84.0) than passing grade (75.7), including his worst overall offensive grades since 2017. He will also be working without Tyreek Hill this year. Despite all that, Mahomes is a game changer and is a threat to win a championship every year due to his elite ability to simply win.
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Entering his third season, Justin Herbert has proven his ability to be an MVP-caliber QB in this league, much like Burrow in Cincinnati. Herbert is a darkhorse candidate for MVP this season after posting over 5,000 yards and 38 TDs last season, earning a 90.0 PFF offensive grade. He gets to work this year with an even stronger roster defensively and a receiver corps with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson is a former MVP and arguably one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. He is coming off an injury-filled 2021 season. He had his struggles last year, posting a PFF passing grade of 65.9 and a running grade of 75.8. Some of that can be credited to the injury issues up and down this roster. This season will be one to watch — the report out of Ravens camp is that Jackson is throwing the ball better than he ever has. With his elite ability to run the ball, becoming the consistent passer the Ravens need is key to his success for 2022.
Tier 2: MVP
These QBs have elite tendencies and are borderline MVP-caliber players. However, their ability to contend usually is a little more roster-driven rather than the ability to take over a game and win it single-handedly.
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott returned to his 2019 form last year, posting 4,449 passing yards, 37 TDs and 10 INTs. He also posted a top-10 PFF passing grade of 84.7. He will lose the production of Amari Cooper but should have more than enough targets to make up for the absence.
9. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
The reigning Super Bowl champion comes off a season that saw him post his highest offensive position grade in his career at 86.1 and a PFF passing grade of 84.1. Matthew Stafford comes back to an elite Rams team that had the No. 1 receiver in all of football last year. Add Allen Robinson to the mix and now Stafford will have another versatile weapon to use for 2022.
10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
After securing one of the most lucrative QB contracts in the NFL this offseason, Kyler Murray looks to continue to build as an elite QB. He will be without DeAndre Hopkins to start the season and loses Christian Kirk as well. His 86.7 PFF passing grade shows his elite ability as a passer, and despite the lack of efficiency as a runner last season, he will continue to be a mobile threat the defenses have to worry about in the future.
11. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Despite all of the controversy — a suspension looming and an entire season away from football — Deshaun Watson has proven that he is very much deserving of elite status as a QB in the NFL. For context, Watson led the league in passing yards in 2020, at 4,823. He also posted passing and running grades of 91.2 and 81.4, respectively. Those are some of the best totals in the league. If he can regain anywhere close to this form, on a loaded Browns roster, look for Watson to possibly rise up this list as the season goes on.
Tier 3: Above Average
These are simply guys who play at an above-average level. At the point they are at in their careers, they can make some high-level plays, but their success is contingent on team situation.
12. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr is about as close to elite status as can be in this league. He’s proven that he is a winner over the course of his career in close games and that he can execute when needed to. He posted a 77.5 PFF passing grade and a 77.6 offensive grade that ranked him 13th among QBs last season. With the addition of Davante Adams, look for Carr to leap into that elite level of QBs next season.
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins is the definition of an above-average player. He is consistently one of the top passers in the league and one of the top offensive-graded QBs. He never seems to have enough to make the Vikings into that elite contender that they can be.
14. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Despite not having the best team in Atlanta last season, Matt Ryan was able to post an above-average passing year that included a PFF passing grade of 75.9, 20 TDs against 12 INTs and almost 4,000 yards. He will now take that level of play to a much better Colts offense and look to create magic like he did earlier in his career in Atlanta.
15. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson is an intriguing player due to the fact that his play has somewhat declined over the last few years. This may be due to the roster limitations as well as injuries. He posted one of his worst passing seasons last year with a PFF grade of 75.9. He was also hampered by injuries as well. He will have a change of scenery in Denver this season and an offense with stable line play and a more than solid run game. Look for Wilson to bounce back in 2022.
The Rest of the Tiers
Going forward, each tier is less about a player’s spot in the rankings and more about who he is individually at this point in his career. We have three types
- High-Upside Players: These QBs are young and have the upside that could put them in the above-average to elite tiers in the future.
- Serviceable Veterans: These are veterans who still have the ability to come in and run an offense and perform at a manageable level in the NFL. At this point in their career, they are the placeholder until there is another QB that can replace them. These can also be backup QBs.
- Something To Prove: These are the QBs who are on the perennial hot seat as a starting QB. These guys will be out to prove their worth in the NFL whether it be contractually or just proving they are high-level players.
Instead of trying to force these guys into tiers where they might not belong, the remaining quarterbacks are all one big tier, and we’re identifying which category they fit in as we go.
16. Mac Jones, New England Patriots — High-Upside Players
Mac Jones came into New England last and by the end of training camp had completely seized the starting QB role. It proved to be a good decision, as Jones had offensive and passing grades that ranked in the top 12 of all QBs. Jones will be looking to take a step forward this year and improve on a great rookie campaign.
17. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans — Serviceable Veteran
Ryan Tannehill will be looking to continue a solid career in Tennessee. He posted an offensive grade of 83.7 last year, which was eighth in the NFL. With that said, some costly mistakes from him in the playoffs helped end a rather extraordinary season and playoff run last year. Rookie third-rounder Malik Willis will be competing with Tannehill this year during camp, which is also something to note.
18. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles — Something to Prove
Jalen Hurts had one of the most up-and-down seasons in the league last year. He provided versatility with his legs, accumulating a PFF running grade of 86.9. However, he had some up-and-down passing numbers that didn’t prove to be particularly productive (3,144 yards, 16 TDs against 9 INTs). This will very much be a prove-it year for Hurts.
19. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints — Something to Prove
Jameis Winston was hurt for most of last season, so there aren’t many numbers to go by. However, throughout his career, he has always proved to be productive as a passer but someone who struggles with turning the ball over.
20. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders — Serviceable Veteran
After a tough ending with his tenure in Indianapolis. Carson Wentz heads back to the NFC East, where he will look to give steady play to a Commanders team that is in desperate need of it. He will have freshly extended receiver Terry McLaurin to work with as well.
21. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers — Something to Prove
Baker Mayfield is the definition of a player with something to prove in 2022. His up-and-down play in 2022 led him to one of the worst passing grades in the league, at 62.4. He played most of the season with injuries, which helps explain some of his drop after playing at an elite level in 2020. With a change of scenery in Carolina and a healthy Christian McCaffrey to work with, Mayfield is looking to regain that elite level play that put him and Cleveland in the spotlight during his tenure there.
22. Daniel Jones, New York Giants — Something to Prove
Daniel Jones comes into 2022 with a new head coach in Brain Daboll, who helped Josh Allen establish himself as one of the best QBs in football. Jones is looking to right the ship and prove to new management in New York that he was not a mistake with the sixth pick in 2019.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers — Serviceable Veteran
Jimmy Garoppolo is an interesting prospect and is probably the definition of a serviceable veteran. Despite average to sometimes below-average play for San Francisco last season, he managed to take his team to the NFC Championship Game. Whether he stays put in SF or finds a new home, he is the best option on the market to come in, be a leader and help a team stay afloat in their division.
24. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — Something to Prove
If there was a time for Tua Tagovailoa to get it together, it’s now. He is coming off a season that saw him throw for 2,653 yards with 16 TDs and 10 INTs. This led to a 67.3 PFF passing grade. With the addition of head coach Mike McDaniel, All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill and LT Terron Armstead, among others, there are no excuses for Tua to underperform this year.
25. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions — Serviceable Veteran
Jared Goff was saved this year by the fact that the draft lacked elite QB play. He is back in Detroit for another year with a better roster and he will look to continue to prove that his years with Los Angeles were not a fluke.
26. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers — High-Upside Players
Trey Lance is the biggest question mark heading into 2022. He has tremendous upside as a dual-threat QB for the 49ers, and he was able to show that a little bit last season. On the other hand, his lack of experience coupled with the fact that he is being thrusted into the starting lineup makes the pressure rise for Lance. If this experiment proves well, he has the potential to shoot up this list.
27. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons — Serviceable Veteran
Marcus Mariota comes in looking to replace the void Matt Ryan left in Atlanta. He will also be working without star receiver Calvin Ridley for the season. Atlanta is hoping that the success of the spotty appearances from Mariota the last few seasons will be a foreshadow into a successful season as a starter again. He will have Kyle Pitts to work with — the second-year tight end is coming off a stellar rookie campaign.
28. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars — High-Upside Players
Trevor Lawrence has very good upside despite up-and-down play as a rookie 2021 in a season filled with drama from the front office to the coaches. He will welcome in Christian Kirk from Arizona and new head coach Doug Pederson. Look for Pederson to help elevate Lawrence’s play and get the most out of him this year, much like his time with Carson Wentz in Philadelphia.
29. Mitch Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers — Serviceable Veteran
Mitch Trubisky will have plenty of weapons to choose from in Pittsburgh. With one of the strongest receiving corps in the NFL and a future star in Najee Harris in the backfield, Trubisky will be getting far more help than he ever had in Chicago. He helped Chicago despite the situation he was in at the time. He could easily go up the list based on his level of play this season.
30. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — High-Upside Players
Justin Fields showed many flashes last year that he could be a starter in the NFL, despite having little to no help. He has great athleticism and provides a dual-threat QB if need be. He will be coming into another tough-personnel situation in Chicago this season. We will see what the outcome ends up like.
31. Zach Wilson, New York Jets — High-Upside Players
Zach Wilson posted low grades in all categories in the passing game as a rookie in 2021. That said, the Jets had very little help for him, and he dealt with injuries. This season, he will get a second year in the same system and some help from maybe the best receiver in this year’s draft in Garrett Wilson.
32. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders — Serviceable Veteran
Taylor Heinicke is a coach’s dream in terms of a backup. He is a hard-working, underdog-mentality player who shows toughness. He also can be a spark plug at times. He is also a career backup who is highlighted by inconsistent play and just not having the abilities that some of the other QBs in the league have. He will be a great fit backing up Carson Wentz and possibly sliding into the starting spot if things do not work out.
33. Davis Mills, Houston Texans — High-Upside Players
It is no secret Davis Mills struggled in place of Deshaun Watson last year. With little to no help at receiver other than Brandin Cooks, Mills showed inconsistent QB play. He had some flashes of good potential and other plays that made you scratch your head. That potential keeps him as one of my high-upside players but given his situation in Houston, this may be a tough road for Mills in 2022.
34. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers — Serviceable Veteran
Now in his second year in Carolina, Sam Darnold looks to have lost the QB job yet again. He will have a slight advantage over Baker Mayfield this year as he will know the offense better, but with his level of play never seeming to be more than backup level throughout his career, it looks like its Mayfield’s job to lose rather than the other way around.
35. Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks — Serviceable Veteran
Drew Lock will get a chance to compete for a job in Seattle after being traded by Denver. Lock has consistently struggled through his career and will be up for a fight after Geno Smith came in last year and showed he still had something left in the tank.
36. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks — Serviceable Veteran
Geno Smith is a career backup that was able to come in and provide the Seahawks with some average performances. He will simply hold the place of starter (assuming he wins the QB battle with Drew Lock) until draft time or free agency where they can find someone to be their franchise QB.
