NFL Friday Futures: Jahmyr Gibbs' 2023 Futures

Every Friday, the guys at FTNBets will bring you one NFL futures bet they are looking at for the upcoming 2023 season. Today’s bet is a player prop on Detroit Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. You can find 2023 NFL projections for Gibbs on FTNFantasy. All of the available betting lines for Gibbs are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you are able to shop around for the sports book with the best odds on each player or team.

2023 Rushing Yardage Prop

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 590.5 Rushing Yards

(-115, Caesars)

The Detroit backfield has undergone a complete overhaul for the 2023 NFL season. Jamaal Williams is now a New Orleans Saint and D’Andre Swift is a Philadelphia Eagle. Those two backs accounted for 361 carries, 1,608 yards and 22 rushing touchdowns in 2022. They also accounted for 60 catches and another 450 yards through the air. To replace them, the Lions added former Bears running back David Montgomery to go along with drafting Jahmyr Gibbs high in the first round of the NFL draft.

The Lions have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Their running back group was third in the league in touches and led the league in both fantasy points and touchdowns scored. Most of that production was from guys in different uniforms this season, leaving a huge hole in a favorable situation for a guy like Gibbs to step into. Gibbs will compete with Montgomery for touches, but Montgomery has also missed games in each of the last three seasons. Gibbs was the star of the offseason program with Montgomery already sidelined with an injury. Montgomery is expected to be ready to start the season, but any setback would make Gibbs a workhorse type RB1. Jeff Ratcliffe has Gibbs projected for about 750 yards this year, which is more than 25% above the number currently offered by Caesars. That spread between our projection and the sports book gives him a large margin for error.

FTN’s Kevin Adams already put this Jahmyr Gibbs play into his NFL futures on the FTNBets Bettracker. Here is what he said about this play:

“Gibbs was selected 12th overall,l so I expect him to be more than just a third-down/pass-catching back. He averaged over 6.0 YPC in the SEC last year. I expect his rush attempts prop to be between 9.5-11.5 per week if Montgomery stays healthy. He has a shot of more if he emerges as the true RB1 in the same way Aaron Jones is to AJ Dillon with Green Bay. FTN Data has him getting 167 carries for 740 rush yards. DET was 7th in Aaron Schatz’s adjusted line yards gained metric and is expected to be a top-5 OL this season with Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow & Penei Sewell returning to the starting lineup.”