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NFL DFS Showdown Breakdown – New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons

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Brunch. Tea time. All of these above and NFL in the morning. London games are a treat as you wait for the morning caffeine to take hold. This game might not jolt you awake, but there are some delicious DFS edges to breathe in, like the smell of freshly brewed coffee. 

Let’s look at it.

 

 

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview

ATL -3 O/U 45

Pace and playcalling

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The game should surprisingly have a healthy pace. The Jets are ninth in neutral pace while the Falcons are sixth. Atlanta’s offense has been changing before our eyes. Weeks 1-2 were 14th and 24th (53.9%) in neutral pace and passing rate. Over the last two weeks, Arthur Smith has gotten his act together. Atlanta ranks third and eighth (62.7%) in pace and passing rate in close games over that span. We’ll see if his pass game weapons being decimated will change this. 

The Jets, however, have been moving in the opposite direction with their passing rate. In Weeks 1-2 New York passed on 57.8% of their neutral plays, but in their last two games it trickled down to 56.1%. It’s not a massive move, but a trend to be mindful of. 

Injuries

New York

  • Elijah Moore (WR) – (Concussion – LP/FP/) – Status: No Designation
  • Brandin Echols (CB) – (Concussion – DNP/LP/) – Status: No Designation
  • Tyler Kroft (TE) – (Back – DNP/DNP/) – Status: OUT

Atlanta

Showdown DFS – Favorite Plays

Top Shelf Captains: Zach Wilson, Corey Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts
Contrarian Captains: Michael Carter, Jamison Crowder, Mike Davis, Hayden Hurst
Punts: Ryan Griffin, Ty Johnson

Jets DFS Picks

 The matchup against the Falcons’ secondary is that good. Yes, the Jets’ passing rate is not trending in the right direction, but this is a good game to reverse that. Atlanta ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). After four weeks, they are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (25.7) to opposing quarterbacks and have relinquished the most passing touchdowns (11) in the NFL. Their biggest struggle happens to line up with Wilson’s biggest strength to this point. The Falcons are 32nd in DVOA against deep passing while Wilson is first in deep adjusted completion rate (75%). The Jets have allowed Wilson to face pressure on 29.7% (sixth highest) of his dropbacks, but that shouldn’t be as big of a concern this week. Atlanta has the sixth-lowest pressure rate (19.5%) in the NFL. Wilson is contrarian viable captain, especially on FanDuel. 

Michael Carter is in play for the flex and as a contrarian large-field captain. Atlanta has the eighth-lowest stuff rate (41.5%). While they also have the 10th-lowest gash rate allowed, Carter is quietly taking over the backfield over the last two games. Zach Wilson can shred this secondary, but don’t be surprised if Carter walks away with two easy goal-line plunges. Atlanta ranks 30th in red zone rush defense allowing successful runs on 73% of plays inside the 20. Carter has been running well over the last three weeks. Among rushers with ten or more carries, he’s 27th in yards after contact per attempt immediately ahead of Saquon Barkley. Over that same span, he’s 11th in missed tackles forced (nine). 

Weeks 3-4

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Michael Carter 22 2 6 23
Tevin Coleman 4 1 2 4
Ty Johnson 6 1 7 31

Tevin Coleman has been nixed from this backfield, but Ty Johnson makes some sense as a punt. Atlanta ranks 16th in DVOA against pass-catching backs. Johnson has led the team in routes over the last two weeks, so he fits in builds where Atlanta is winning. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most receptions (27) and ninth-most receiving yards (207) to backs.

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With Elijah Moore out last week (concussion), Corey Davis, Keelan Cole and Jamison Crowder were the three starting receivers for the Jets. Davis and Cole operated out wide (71-73.1%) while Crowder (75% slot) was the primary slot receiver. Davis and Crowder are the primary targets here. Davis has seen a 20.2% target share with 31.7% of the air yards. He’s currently second on the team in deep targets (four) behind only Elijah Moore. Davis will rotate at LWR and RWR and see equal amounts of Fabian Moreau and A.J. Terrell in coverage. Moreau has been easy pickings allowing a 70% catch rate and 133.5 passer rating in coverage. Terrell has been the lone bright spot for the Falcons, allowing only a 44.4% catch rate and 53.9 passer rating. 

Crowder saw a 26% target share in his return last week while also leading the team with four red-zone targets. With Isaiah Oliver down with a knee injury, Avery Williams steps in as slot corner. The rookie allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 75.9 passer rating in his first NFL game action. 

Cole played the same field stretcher role that Moore held as two of his four targets were downfield. Cole and Moore’s role in this offense is what we want to attack against Atlanta. Moore could resume his starting role, but if he doesn’t, or they split routes, I want exposure to both players in MME. 

Jeff Smith is out. Denzel Mims has run a total of eight routes this season. Braxton Berrios is not in play unless somehow Crowder misses the game. You can cross Mims and Berrios off the player pool list. 

With Tyler Kroft out, Ryan Griffin assumes the lead role after running only 10 routes last week. He did out-target Kroft (four vs. one) and got two red-zone looks. The Falcons are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for the position ranking 21st in DVOA. With the red zone involvement, Griffin is one of my favorite punts in this game. Trevon Wesco is likely the next player up behind Griffin after running five routes (one target) last week. 

Falcons DFS Picks

Matt Ryan isn’t a must in this game. Ryan has been struggling ranking 29th in yards per attempt (6.2) and 25th in fantasy points per dropback (0.43). That was with Calvin Ridley in tow. Now he faces Jets defense that’s not amazing by any stretch of the imagination, but they aren’t as terrible as the team name might imply. New York is 19th in pass defense DVOA and has generated the 11th highest pressure rate (26.5%). 

Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson are viable in the same lineup. While they might have the same positional designation, they are not similar in usage at all. Patterson has spent 29.5% of his snaps this season in the slot out as an outside wide receiver. This is an above-average matchup for both of them on the ground. The Jets have allowed the 11th most rushing yards (510) and are second (six) in rushing touchdowns. New York has surrendered the eighth-highest gash rate (12.3%). With their receiving depth chart decimated, Arthur Smith could lean on these two in Week 5. 

Player Rushing attempts Red zone opportunities Targets  Routes
Mike Davis 49 10 22 106
Cordarrelle Patterson 27 8 19 51
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Christian Blake will assume the LWR role. He’s only seen one target on eight routes this season. Black will line up against Brandin Echols, who has given up a 66.7% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating this year. Olamide Zaccheaus has been starting as the RWR and rotating into the slot. Zaccheaus has been an afterthought in this offense with his 8% target share and first read share. He’ll match up against Bryce Hall, who allows a 50% catch rate and 73.5 passer rating. 

Tajae Sharpe has run 40 routes this season. Sharpe and his 0.73 yards per route run aren’t worth rostering. Frank Darby hasn’t logged an offensive snap this season, so it’s difficult to see him factoring in much this week. 

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Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst should compete with Patterson for the team lead in targets this week. Pitts leads the team in slot snaps (46.5%). He’s seen a 16% target share with a 21% red zone target share. His target share could push 25% with all of the missing players. Hurst should also see an elevated role above his 6% target share currently. Last year the Jets were ranked 18th in DVOA against the tight end position allowing the most receiving yards (1,105) and receiving touchdowns (14). As with the backfield, double-tight end lineups are viable here. 

Defense/Kickers

Neither defense is a must, but if picking one I chose the Jets. The name of the game is pressure, and the Jets have the ability to do so. Atlanta has the third-lowest pressure rate in the league. In this low-total game, I don’t have any interest in the kickers. 

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