First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
We’re in the late stages of the NFL season, and unfortunately it doesn’t look promising for me to repeat as a top-five Circa winner this year. I’ll still be doing my weekly picks but hoping and praying more for one of the prizes for placing well in the last quarter.
Week 15 Circa Millions Picks
New York Giants +16.5
I don’t think, in the history of NFL betting, a road team that’s more than a double-digit favorite is a good bet, especially when the public is backing that heavy favorite. The only time it makes sense would be maybe if the home team just signed a QB off the street. While Tommy DeVito is a third-stringer for all practical purposes, he’s at least been in the Giants system for over a year now and can sometimes move the offense. Our betting model is squarely backing the Giants at this large of a handicap.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5
I’m actually going against the betting model on this one and backing Russell Wilson and this very disrespected but solid Steelers team. Both of these teams are solid, but the Steelers haven’t lost by more than 5 points this entire season yet. I think Tomlin and the Steelers defense will at least keep this game close, and this Eagles team, while great, managed to play a close one against the Panthers last week.
Denver Broncos -4
I’m going with the public and our betting model on this one. There’s some line value here, since I’m generally seeing the Broncos at -4.5 at most sportsbooks at this point. This rookie-led team isn’t acting like a team with an inexperienced QB, winning its last three games by more than a touchdown. I think that trend continues.
